U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

independent media also needs to include independent social media, like there needs to be a youtube which isn't full of nazis

That's the kind of stuff I'd love to see Soros or other big funders on the left undertake — create nonprofit media platforms for the left to use to communicate, develop narratives, sharpen issues, create mini media stars, all of the stuff that the right has lots of outlets for.

Keep wondering if Biden actually set it up with the chip act/infrastructure/green jobs/etc so that Trump's economy is actually REALLY good for a couple of years and Trump ends up looking like a genius. Much like Trump's first two years in office was just a carryover of Obama's economy. Or that's Obama's story anyway...

am guessing trump's actions - tariffs, mass deportations - will fuck up any Biden-built uptick in the economy

And seconding dc's post above, am very grateful to have all of you to inform me and help me process all this

yeah, perception of the economy is magically gonna be great once Trump gets in, obviously he'll fuck it up but that's a problem for the next Democratic president

It's not going to be great, though! Economic perceptions are not a left/right/Dem/Rep issue - whomever is in office when things are bad eats it.

There might be short window where some of his voters this time give him room but by early summer 2025 Republicans will own the economy and rents and food prices aren't going to drop back to 2016 levels.

Entrenching Republican rule (outside of the courts) is less likely than a future where the two parties throw control back and forth every cycle as things generally get worse and no one even tries to make it not worse.

yeah the silver lining for me is that if inflation really was a driving force for this election, inflation is gonna be turbocharged under trump. houses are not gonna get more affordable, mcdonalds meals are not gonna get under $10.

DJIA likes it, up 3 percent today, currently sitting at another record high. (I know, stock market isn't the economy etc. But obviously Wall St guys see money to be made.)

Pretty much happening now. Governing class has never bothered after 2008 xxp

U.S. Rep. Jenniffer González-Colón, Puerto Rico’s former nonvoting delegate to the U.S. Congress and an ally of Donald Trump, is leading in the island’s gubernatorial race

ok come on

we were offered joy, and chose anger & bitter retribution
that's just who we are I guess

maybe now they’ll agree to make puerto rico a state

xxxxpost I do feel like after the Great Recession, a grim cloud that never receded has been over almost all of us.

like, obviously speaking the seeds for it went back as far as 1981 and spanned multiple D and R administrations, but like...I could afford shit when I was 20! if I made even 70% of what i make now when I was that age, I'd be sitting on a huge nest egg right now. meanwhile, a lot of my friends live in overstuffed apartments with like 4 roommates, 1 who isn't actually on the lease, etc etc. people in their 40s living w/ parents (or in my case, people in their 40s who have mom living w/ them because she can't afford rent otherwise and Senior Assisted Living has such a ridiculous wait list and such awful choices for places to live)

shit was already breaking and people had blinders on but once shit broke, we entered a new normal that went through several version updates, always worse than the previous one.

Grocery prices aren't going down but he inherits an economy that's forecast to do pretty nicely so I expect his voters will think he's done fine on that score

people base 'the economy' on how their wallet is doing, though. which is why the news of the improving economy under Biden* in terms of metrics didn't actually change anybody's perception, because they were still paying $3+ a gallon at the pump and a fortune at the grocery store. Inflation slowed down, but that doesn't put prices back where they were.

more affluent voters will tout his improved economy, and his less well-to-do voters will convince themselves they're doing better, but the non-committed ones who just broke for him this time because "well Biden sucks, I think things were better w/ the other guy" will notice things aren't getting any cheaper. will it matter? who fuckin knows. I'm buying an island.

*I'm aware that 'improving economy' doesn't mean "things are actually good", just that metrics, which are growing outdated in terms of their relation to their impact on the working class, improved.

eh. the two parties still get graded on a completely different scale for that.

perceptions of the economy flip on a dime whenever a republican is president because his supporters immediately fall in line

by early summer 2025 Republicans will own the economy and rents and food prices aren't going to drop back to 2016 levels.

I don't think that frightens them. Mainly because they will have full control over the levers of power for the next two years and the ruthless mentality required to bend or break them without regard to any outcome but solidify their future power and make it harder for any opposition to oust them.

The first thing I'll watch for is how quickly the subject of killing the filibuster is raised, and justified by saying "the Democrats can't complain if we kill it, because they've been hoping to kill it for a long time. The American people just voted for us to get things done and we owe it to them to not let the losers stand in our way." Which is the exact argument Dems were making in 2020, but failed to follow up on. I more than half expect that now the GOP will kill it, which was also predicted in 2020, but went unheeded.

I mean, it legitimately lost Trump the race in 2020. When people blamed him for his handling of COVID, it wasn't just the "people died" element- it was the economic recession abd unemployment that came with it

god forbid your blue state has a huge natural disaster (fire, flooding, tornado)... if you need federal aid, he'll make you beg for it

of all the friends in FL I had that suffered losses, FEMA barely helped them this time as it was, so under a President who actually dngaf, yeah, it's gonna be terrible

Amazing disparities..

The Harris campaign raised ~$1 billion, compared to Trump's $388 million pic.twitter.com/FuGHeON4iN

— Prem Thakker (@prem_thakker) November 6, 2024

I also suspect they'll limit the use of the filibuster rule somehow. The problem with abolishing it outright is it could put Senate Republicans in a bind if they don't want to pass every crazy thing a Republican House sends them (if there is a Republican House). Having the filibuster to rely on at least sometimes is politically handy.

I have a theory that all corporations raise prices when the president is a Dem to influence the next election. People think "think economy is bad" but mean " i want more money"

jesus fucking christ just got a suggested article on my browser with the title "Wondering why Trump voters like him? Just talk to them" from The Hill. yes, lets figure out why Trump voters like him, as though that hasn't been the focus of every single fucking opinion piece for 9 years now

do they ever go looking for those who supported Biden or Harris? of course not. the media deserves what's coming to them.

placing all my hope in a stroke. yes I know I"ve posted about that three times, maybe if I manifest it even more Aaron Rodgers style he'll fall over instantly

Something *wild* that none of you might believe:

Presidentially, 2024 will probably finish with Illinois at D+10, New York at D+13, New Jersey at D+6, and NH at D+3.

And yet. The national popular vote will be ~R+1.5, which is roughly the same as 2022's downballot House vote. pic.twitter.com/XcHLwilCPj

— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) November 6, 2024

xpost a lot of clicks?

yeah I don't even feel bad if Trump revokes press credentials for WaPo, NYT, etc.....maybe it's time some small time asshole becomes the hero

I really hope Biden will do what he can to shore up the rights of non-citizens here legally, amongst other things

name 11 justices now goddammit

there's literally no blowback to worry about anymore

oh I can't wait for the brave reporters who stand up to ask tough questions to the scarecrow Trump puts up as Press Secretary

or maybe we adopt the Cylon approach of waiting a year or two and pretending to peacefully 'take it' and then they don't see us coming.

This is an interesting post from a sociologist working with immigrants in Hawaii. Lots of good observations, but per the earlier talk here about the media I think her observations about news sources is important. (Post is from X, but I'm done linking to that.)

Sharon Quinsaat
@smquinsaat

I just woke up to the news that Trump is again the president of the United States. I want to say I am surprised, but I am not. I have been conducting fieldwork in Hawaii since June 2023 for our project on immigrant conservatives. I spent 1.5 months with Filipinos and many other immigrants and Native Hawaiians who are Republicans in Hawaii just before the elections, most of them Trump supporters (there were some who are "Never Trump" Republicans). So many of them were former Democrats. I don't have a hot take right now, and my observations are perhaps limited because Hawaii is different from the mainland. And yes, Harris still won in Hawaii. But let me share what I found out while in the field. I have not processed my field notes and interview data yet, so these are preliminary:

(1) Many people have real material grievances (e.g., housing, high cost of living) that to them is not being addressed by the Democratic leadership (Hawaii has been dominated by Democrats for 70 years). They have been extremely dissatisfied by the leadership that, to them, is "not really interested in solving their economic problems." The appeal to identity politics and threat of fascism (the main campaign message of Harris) does not resonate with them. They have just completely lost faith in the Democratic Party, and the only alternative for them (because we are a two-party system) is the Republicans. One interviewee said, "They promised and then they sold us out" (rough translation). One woman who went door-to-door campaigning for Obama in 2008 and 2012 went 180 in 2016 and completely disdained Democrats. She said, "I almost lost my house. I'm in debt. I have lost trust in their ability to deliver."

Now why would an underpaid Filipino immigrant and a Native Hawaiian who has been on the waitlist to finally get a home put their faith on the Republican Party and Trump to their economic concerns. These groups have faced extreme racism (the racial structure in Hawaii is different) and economic hardship. None of it made sense to me. None at all. Until I saw first hand the information that they consume to understand why they are having these problems.

(2) Their sources of information are nothing we have never heard of. Yes, there is still that staple of Fox News and News Max. There's also a lot reading Epoch Times, One America News, and Rumble. But I had a deep conversation with a Native Hawaiian (let's call her Lily) who regards Trump as a demi-god. She showed me on her phone the stuff she reads and listens to everyday. I have never heard of them before, but we listened to them together. The conspiracy theories in these sites are WILD, to say the least. But she is convinced they are true. I have my research assistants look at these sites and influencer/analyst because they are so new to me.
Lily and I are living in two different worlds.

(3) We know our society is extremely polarized. Political scientists and sociologists have said that in this kind of environment, it's more about winning rather than voting what is best for the country. There's also a high level of social sorting. I saw this in my fieldwork. It's nothing new that we are in our own bubbles. We are siloed. We are not talking to people who we don't share politics with. But this has translated into voting so that the other camp loses. One interviewee said, "I'm voting Republican just to stick it to the Democrats." Another said, "I want Trump to win, so I will get the last laugh."

(4) They are organized. Very organized. Through their church networks, military family circles, hobby/interest-oriented groups. They are not going out to talk to people during elections. They do that even way before.

(5) The reason that many people in Hawaii are still Democrats is the unions. The unions have been doing the job not only in getting better wages for their workers but educating them and their families. Many community organizers are union members too going door-to-door. The universities remain elite spaces.

(6) The Dems made a serious error moving right, appealing to so-called moderate Republicans and alienating their progressive base. I asked an interviewee about this, "The Cheneys are endorsing Harris. What do you think of that?" He said, "Why would I vote for a Democrat who is liked by a few Republicans when there is already a Republican running?" One laughed, "I can't believe Harris is trying to charm Republicans. That means we have a lot of power. Let's show her." Palestine may not be a main issue for them, but in all of the discussions and town hall meetings I've been, they have brought up Biden giving away their money to Israel.

I'm still processing everything. But I just wanted to share my observation from hanging out with Trump supporters in Hawaii just before the elections.

Robert Reich: A peaceful but determined resistance to Trump must start now

one word doesn't belong in that sentence, but he's still living in the before-times

I don’t see any rating sunshine, no matter how hard I squint. These numbers are pointing to some severely depressing demographic shifts that aren’t going away. We seem to be cranking out racist hateful young men at a record pace.

i just want to say that i disagree w/ this. i don't think one has to look at the demographic voting data from this election w/ despair. the democratic party has won presidential elections without the white male vote. the aspect that should obviously rattle the democratic party to its core is the disaffection that took root in every single voting bloc that makes up its coalition. but i don't think we're seeing permanent defections to the republican party in droves, among minority voters especially, as much as we're seeing people being compelled by trump, his message, and what they feel like he represents. i believe a lot of these people are going to be up for grabs again in the next election when trump (presumably...) is not on the ballot, and can be brought back into the party -- if the democrats choose to run a dynamic and relatable candidate who is able to articulate a clear vision for how left wing politics can better people's lives

xxp yeah. that goes back to an earlier point - right-wing media has completely taken over. they live in a totally separate world. as was mentioned many times in his first term, it's a real fucking problem that "real" news like WaPo or the NYT is behind a paywall while stuff like Rumble or the Joe Rogan podcast are free. there is no leftist equivalent to that. perhaps because there is no one who really stands to gain from it, besides the people. whereas Russia can just chuck tens of millions of dollars at Joe Rogan and Tim Pool to do their bidding.

it would be nice, for instance, to have one election that doesn't involve Trump as the centerpiece of each party's platform.

xpost

Honestly, I think that the Dems need to completely rethink their strategy, run on popular progressive policies that many people agree on, and do it loudly. This centrist corporate shit, with no conception as of how normal peoples’ lives are on the ground, must fucking go.

― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Wednesday, November 6, 2024 7:07 AM (eight hours ago)

i know nobody wants to re-litigate bernie vs hillary but you can draw a short and very direct line from the democratic party and its apparatus of funders strangling the bernie campaign in its crib and telling everyone compelled by his message to stfu and fulfill their duty of voting for hillary to what happened last night, which was the biggest repudiation of democratic politics by the working class in at least 40 years. a very direct line. does this happen again to the next bernie, or does the party actually see the value in a dynamic progressive candidate? i'm obviously very pessimistic about the answer to this question but maybe i will be surprised

i don't think one has to look at the demographic voting data from this election w/ despair. the democratic party has won presidential elections without the white male vote.

I don't know, I think a 30 point swing rightward in four years is not something to be so easily written off to not having a dynamic enough candidate.

also RIP dr morbius you were ahead of your time in hating the democratic party and i hear your voice often

Thanks for that post, Tipsy.

I do wish the Dems would at least all agree to not attend any event that Trump is at. Inaugural. State of the Union. Any of it. Don't even go to the Oval Office. Boycott him as much as possible. Don't invite him to anything. Have public hearings and meetings and town halls and don't invite Republicans! Have televised meetings led by Dem Senators and Congress people where you discuss what Trump is doing month by month. Shadow government in plain sight. And don't work with him at all. On anything. For four years. Don't give him one thing. Just focus on your own states.
They aren't cool enough to do any of that though...

a 30 point swing rightward in four years is not something to be so easily written off to not having a dynamic enough candidate.

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Wednesday, November 6, 2024 3:44 PM (one minute ago)bookmarkflaglink

kids grow up, they mature, a new politician comes along and changes people's minds. people are far too rigid in their perception of young people imo -- just in the same way that naive leftists were idiotic to profess gen z as the magically enlightened generation that was going to save us all, writing them off now as being permanently lost to andrew tate and trad wife content underestimates the degree to which people can, and will, change. some of these disaffected white men can be brought back by a political candidate who cuts thru their feeds w/ a new compelling message. it's absolutely possible and i think to some degree will happen, but the democratic party has to help facilitate its own survival

I guess the Dobbs decision didn't mean shit

J0rdan otm.

does this happen again to the next bernie, or does the party actually see the value in a dynamic progressive candidate?

Any successful Bernie-type candidate is going to have to be kind of like Trump in their ability to go directly to voters and run right over party efforts to block them. That's what Trump did. Bernie was never quite that potent, whether that was a problem with him as a candidate or his organization or whatever. But party establishments by their nature don't sit around hoping for an outsider candidate to come in and violate all their basic assumptions about how things should be done. Obama was that to some degree in '08 — not a Bernie figure, obviously, but very much an upstart facing the preferred party favorite, just like Bernie (the same favorite even, at least the first time).