U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

Spent the evening in Berkeley with some far leftist friends watching the terrible results roll in and we're all a little stumped on what's next for us to do. it's clear that protesting, donating, canvassing and organizing aren't working. How do we even start to plan to fight what's coming?

Xxxxpost - Jordan, octo, Milo and xyzzz all otm.

Will offer a tiny crumb of comfort here and say that China is moving away from invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping is being manoeuvred slowly out of power and the clique who are likely to replace him have much less interest in that.

I don't want to derail the thread onto this so maybe onto a relevant thread, but I'm definitely interested on your take on this

Literally what I was going to post too

i'm baited into the china derail just coming here to read about american politics: after more than a decade of anticorruption purges of rivals centralization of power there is nobody in position to maneuver xi jinping out of power and he will in the more mediumterm maneuver himself out. despite a certain type of rhetoric about violent reunification and signaling preparedness to do so, his hide your strength bide your time attitude is in line with most of the elite and serves as a check on more adventurous military officials that want the chance to go.

to return to the topic trump mixing it up in east asia geopolitics after it seems four years of superficial normalization and relative stability will be interesting especially with current nk/russia tie-up, recent and upcoming rok politican shifts, a shaky ldp... i'm not pessimistic.

you all are being very mean about a very successful group of people. they all performed their jobs exactly as intended. they got to throw parties with pop stars and clap in suits and lanyards. it meant a lot to them. don’t diminish their efforts

— Ayesha A. Siddiqi (@AyeshaASiddiqi) November 6, 2024

xp will stop the derail sorry and maybe move to another thread, my info here is secondhand from the Chinese politics video bloggers my wife watches, and asking her about it again this morning she is walking it back a little, will maybe get more info and send to relevant thread.

back to the topic at hand I guess

xp yeah their shocking failure to press the 'win the election' button must not go unpunished.

The only thing I know for sure right now is that I really don’t need the after-action reports that are already being written.

Ann Selzer, kinda wild thing there, maybe she was on verge of retiring and was like "fuck it, let's tank the republican morale". Her rep is toast, what other explanation is there? The conservative midwestern woman outraged by Roe overturned didn't happen in a significant way, don't want to go tinfoil hat but what is the explanation for such a massive miss from someone with a great track record?

A question for our older ILXors:

Is this how it felt in late 1980?

This feels worse

lol I was all in on Carter and hated Reagan, I think there was no ideology for me (i was like 14) it was just vibes so I don't remember the expectations on the election eve, I can tell you I had "bad" thoughts when Reagan got shot and he pulled through. John Anderson got 10% as an independent but he was a weirdo semi-lib Republican so I can't even parse his impact.

damn, 6.6% - i think I'm remembering his polling right before the election.

what is the explanation for such a massive miss from someone with a great track record?

mix of time catching up to her methodology and very bad luck

she's still using random-dialling of phones which has largely been abandoned by others due to response rate issues & difficulty getting a representative sample these days. she'd made it work up until now but no more

her previous polls this election were pretty different so i suspect freak bad sample is probably part of it

thanks for the insight, makes sense

On the polling front the main pollsters got it ok as in "flip coin", it was just -1 for Democrats?

Trump winning the pop vote was talked about as a possibility, albeit in a jokey way.

This is awful news to wake up to. Surreal that this idiot rapist would be given yet another chance by a great part of the population. Love to all my ILXor people in the US who voted against him. The world is insane.

This is on the people of this country. Too many fucking garbage people and too many people that don't care. Fuck this place. Say what you want about the Democrats but Trump was the worst possible candidate and he won. He won because he's a white man who wants to build a wall and kill the bad guys and that's what most of the people here want.

He will also be “better for the economy”

DEARBORN MICHIGAN

TRUMP 45% 🔴
STEIN 33% 🟢
HARRIS 15% 🔵

Absolutely stunning collapse. ED votes only but yeah, Arabs are going out blazing against the Democratic Party.

— Thorongil (@Thorongil16) November 6, 2024

Kamala lost almost all the university towns in Michigan… I wonder if tear-gassing all your student voters effected the election 🤔

— General Strike 🍀(Terrence Daniels) (@Terrence_STR) November 6, 2024

Will need time to check on some of these etc. But if true..

sucks that this guy is going to die feeling vindicated not repudiated

this is also bad news for Atlas's real owner :(

dems let trump get away with positioning himself as the anti-war candidate, again, even though it's complete bullshit. 2016 all over again

“radicals don’t vote in order to choose who we want to represent us. it’s about picking which opponent we are best suited to fight”

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DB4RO8vvJY5/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Who could have predicted

Hi y'all. This is grim. Thanks for being here, collectively. That's about all I've got.

Thank YOU, DC.

Hey, all. Slipped in and out of sleep.

can't sleep, neither could my dad... ugh

I envy everyone still asleep.

I suppose the first question to ask is, how did the party get its polling wrong? What was this vibes shit?

we need to end our obsession with polls which are no longer valid. they don’t mean anything when the margins are going to be like this and no one answers their phones

the one bright side I can think of, and this is a stretch, is with trump in power some democrats who’ve held back on israel/gaza might find there’s no longer any political reason to be shy about criticizing the country’s support of israel

polling overall seems to have been relatively good this time, better than 2020

but idk what the dems were doing strategy-wise since like september, how did they possibly think 'never trump republican who loves bush-era republicans' was the key demographic to focus on for the last two months of the campaign, what could possibly have backed that up

Look at these endorsements! How could they fail with Swifties on board?

this is UNBELIEVABLE ahahahahahaaa pic.twitter.com/sZrJVVq9Si

— endthewest (@bookdellector) November 6, 2024

It pains me to say it, but maybe we just couldn’t have won.

feel so rotten about this. so sorry to all of you. so sorry to everyone who worked hard on their end.

I know the Swiftie / Beyonce factor is probably more negligible than we would like to believe, but I wonder what the polling data is on people 18-25. Judging by social media (I know, I know), it seemed like young folks were more mobilized than I've seen them in my lifetime. Did this really not make a dent? I guess like most of you I'm just baffled by this whole thing and flailing looking for answers

what I've heard is it's once again the Olds that have let us down (nb none of the Olds on ILX)

cool woke young people may well be outnumbered by the kids of Trumpers, kids of old-fashioned Republicans, and junior fash young people radicalized by right-wing YouTube etc.

Exurb-dwellers (white flighters) are mostly quiet Republicans, with a few blowhards in the mix.

This has, so far, been a century of being disappointed periodically by half the country, but also recognizing in every case that I shouldn’t be surprised in the least.

In 2016 it was very much: I do not understand these people and am not of them.

Today it is very much am I even from this planet? I feel like a person completely out of time and history, as I imagine a lot of people opening this thread this morning will.

I went from dread to resignation real fast. Not sure how to feel right now— I have to go teach two classes and then work at my second job til 10pm.

Joe Rogan gets over 11 million listeners per episode. He (and the rest of them) has been shouting that Kamala wants to censor the internet for months now. They are also turning P Diddy's parties into Epstein-meets-pizzagate this week.

I went to sleep at 11 or so with things looking not great so I am not surprised she lost.

Dems absolutely need to go back to the drawing board because anti-Racism/anti-Fascism + country club Republicanism isn't a winning strategy.

Maybe they should try some strong left wing politics? We’ll never know

running in pure opposition to the republicans seems to work ok against an unpopular incumbent republican but works much less well when the dem candidate is closely associated with the unpopular incumbent dem and does nothing to distance themselves

there were glimpses at harris having an actual vision (legalising weed! expanding the child tax credit!) but it never seemed to be a focus of the campaign & she did nothing to escape biden's baggage