U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

Good luck USA!

― Ed, Tuesday, 5 November 2024 05:31 (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

hey that's my line!

goodest luck usa

A single anecdotal data point: a friend of mine works in downtown Reading, PA near the local minor league hockey arena where Trump has had two rallies within the last ten days or so. I spoke to my friend before the first rally and he was bummed his boss would not let him work from home that day because my friend worried about the crowds and madness. I spoke to him last night after the second rally and asked how crazy it had been and he said it was no big deal. The crowds had been a lot smaller than anticipated. So, let's go PA.

Heading up the street to vote now

It is about 7am on the east coast, has Trump declared victory yet?

Let’s do this

Ugh, I think I have ptsd from 2016. Every time I start feeling hopeful I get a stab of fear.

Oh 538 forecast switched to Harris at some point

it's barely a switch, 50-49

get off the fucking internet all of you

but i live here!!

Ivy otm

Nate Silver just switched to Harris, too: 50.015% to 49.985% https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

I think I'm going to make negronis tonight to watch the results. Feeling cautiously optimistic.

The official cocktail of ilx

xxp I see (on the internets) that this kid has run an awful lot of simulations

Negronis for everyone!

zach, please come back, we need a Negroni in your mitt.

jaymc beat me to it: perfect last projection. (And if you think he's crooked and for Trump, that should be very encouraging.)

https://postimg.cc/RqTKSx0B/3c11c575

I just voted in PA. Line a lot longer than in the past.

One of the longest lines I’ve ever been in to vote was in York, PA for the 2004 general election

The friend I canvassed with finally convinced his 83 year old mom in California to vote for Harris. She had voted for Trump in the past. So if Harris wins by one in California ...

Voted in WI, much longer line than usual when the polls opened at 7AM. My wife and I are used to being first and second to vote from our ward, today we were eighth and ninth!

Right-wing blowhard friend of mine is confidently counting on WI to elect both Trump and Hovde, plz prove him wrong Badgers.

so Nate has a 25% of Trump winning the popular vote. sure

A woman I know at my polling place got interviewed by This American Life. I guess they’re doing a story on a local race.

It does not bode so well. They had voted 5-0 Biden in 2020...

― Nabozo, Tuesday, November 5, 2024 3:19 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

apparently all 6 voted Haley in the primary so I'd say a 3-3 split (with 5-1 going for the R governor) is maybe a good sign. you got at least 2 defectors

remember, the polls have been showing Trump running ahead of virtually every downballot candidate

Anyway, tonight I’m either watching “Kill Bill I” or “Polite Society”

No line at my polling place in Chicago this morning. I remember long lines in 2016 and 2020, but this is the first time I have voted at this location, so maybe it's a smaller precinct. Or maybe people around here are more likely to have voted early.

Not directed at you, frogbs, but I did laugh last night when the CNN guy asked, in earnest, if there was anything that could be extrapolated from Dixville Notch's six votes. In baseball circles, we call that a small sample size.

The civil war will begin in Dixville Notch

well yes I assume anyone who chooses to live in Dixville Notch does not represent the broader United States

still my ongoing theory is that Trump's underperformance in primary polls and the fact that a significant # of folks voted Haley even after she dropped out is gonna be a difference maker, there's nothing to indicate that he's won enough of those voters back

Are there any psychic dolphins doing predictions this year?

i had forgotten about this. how Trump and his people put Trump's name on all the stimulus checks. it all makes sense now. why people thought he was so great and Biden sucks. i really do think people are that dumb. and Biden didn't put his names on the checks when he became President. that was his fatal mistake.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/inside-donald-trumps-stimulus-checks/story?id=77534116

sounds like biden is the dumb one

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/A1mN82gBRyL._CLa%7C2140%2C2000%7CB13THvahbGS.png%7C0%2C0%2C2140%2C2000%2B0.0%2C0.0%2C2140.0%2C2000.0_AC_UY1000_.png

you all don’t get your sweatshirt?

Having Trump and Johnson's little "secret", whatever it is, floating out there as well isn't helping my election anxiety. I've been surprised to see so many smart people shrug that off as meaningless bluster, I mean, really? This fucker has already tried, openly and repeatedly, to undermine the election process in multiple different ways. To suggest he doesn't actually mean it this time seems... ahistorical.

Which isn't to say I think, whatever it is, it will be successful, but it will be obnoxious and frustrating to face, nonetheless.

i think they could get up to some stuff with the supreme court and whatnot obvs weve seen that before but it would have to be very close

Having Trump and Johnson's little "secret", whatever it is, floating out there as well isn't helping my election anxiety.

I know it fired up my group when we canvassing this weekend. I reminded a couple voters of what Johnson said and had the YouTube clip ready to go.

nice

Right-wing blowhard friend of mine is confidently counting on WI to elect both Trump and Hovde, plz prove him wrong Badgers.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, November 5, 2024 8:14 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

maybe don't be friends with right-wing blowhards idk

sometimes you gotta have shithead friends thats just life

and tipsy is not the guy to use that line on

Having Trump and Johnson's little "secret", whatever it is, floating out there as well isn't helping my election anxiety.

I just think since Jan 6, and specifically when no-one disqualified Trump from running after Jan 6, some kind of shitty anti-democratic shenanigans are an inevitable Chekhov's gun component of this election. But I don't think they would succeed. They can't be allowed to.

for a lot of people, the friend wasn't a right-wing blowhard until 2016-ongoing.

Trump broke a lot of previously normal people's brains

wild shit happening in this country the last x number of years

“I think with our little secret we’re going to do really well with the House, right?” Mr. Trump said, addressing Mr. Johnson directly. “Our little secret is having a big impact. He and I have a little secret — we will tell you what it is when the race is over.”

This is like actual comic book supervillain dialogue.

good chance trump is just making stuff up but who knows

At a polling site in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, Joanne Kelchner, 77, called Trump a “big daddy” and said she voted for him. “He’ll smack you if you’re an asshole.”

Debbie Probus, a retired 61 year old, said she was undecided but ultimately decided to vote for Trump.

“Because of what’s going on overseas. I figure he’s a lot more authoritative. Even though he’s not classy. He’s a lot more authorative and trying to keep people in line. I think Kamala is, in my opinion, too sweet, just from her way she projects on TV, she’s always laughing like it’s a game. It’s not a game. And what’s going on is terrible,” she said.