U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

from what I heard he's still 2 hours away, idk if they serve food there but that place is gonna empty out quick

Trump himself is probably gonna be tired as shit

not gonna stay up for it but it could have potential to be hilarious and hopefully its the fucking final image of Trump's political career

alright I'm gonna try to get some sleep, hope y'all can do the same

I'm nervous but confident. I know the polls are scary (though she still wins if they're accurate) but I'm gonna stick my neck out here and say this: polls cannot measure voter enthusiasm. they can't tell you which side is more willing to wait in long lines or skip the kids' basketball practice. right now, the enthusiasm gap seems really fucking massive. please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think I've ever seen such a contrast like this. yes I know people were cranked up for Hillary but Trump rallies were big, rowdy events. people routinely got beat up there. they were packed. the crowd was on their feet a lot of the time.

it does not look at all like that right now. his rallies are half full and people are visibly bored the entire time. a lot of them leave. I'm seeing yard signs (though less of them), but zero MAGA hats, and no impromptu rallies like before. his donations have completely cratered this cycle and in the last 48 hours they've gone down to basically zero (Harris has raised nearly $5 mil in that span). his voting base does not seem like they really give a shit right now. I guess we'll see.

Kamala’s campaign has been stellar tbh, I don’t find her super charismatic (which is a plus in my book, politicians should be public servants not celebrities) but her image and her speeches are so normal and down to earth it’s comforting. Watching Trump’s rallies is such a gross and surreal experience by comparison it’s shocking how this is even a close race.

There are a lot of possible post-election narratives, but if Harris wins one of them has to be the degree to which she's been underestimated at every step, along with the power of women's votes.

The worst person you know just etc.

Azealia Banks shares that she has decided to vote for Kamala Harris:

“I will be Voting For Kamala Harris tomorrow because Elon Musk (a fucking overrated Ketamine addict) belongs no where near American Politics. The End.” pic.twitter.com/t4bBy6LJwR

— Pop Base (@PopBase) November 4, 2024

3-3 in Dixville Notch--the polls have it exactly right.

Good luck USA!

Heartily seconded, I wish you all strength no matter the outcome

Yeah. It's hard to imagine a bigger gap between the two outcomes, both for the USA and the world. I feel both anger and empathy. Ultimately, I go with optimism, that people like Trump will not prevail in the long term, they're just a hurdle and a pain. Godspeed.

3-3 in Dixville Notch--the polls have it exactly right.
― clemenza, Tuesday, November 5, 2024 6:14 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

It does not bode so well. They had voted 5-0 Biden in 2020...

Good morning! Slept eight hours. Let's go!

Oh god I can't remember the last time I slept eight hours. I envy you, Alfred! And thanks to you and all the other phone-bankers, etc, on this thread.

I'm still recovering from the end of daylight savings time, mind.

Good luck USA!

― Ed, Tuesday, 5 November 2024 05:31 (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

hey that's my line!

goodest luck usa

A single anecdotal data point: a friend of mine works in downtown Reading, PA near the local minor league hockey arena where Trump has had two rallies within the last ten days or so. I spoke to my friend before the first rally and he was bummed his boss would not let him work from home that day because my friend worried about the crowds and madness. I spoke to him last night after the second rally and asked how crazy it had been and he said it was no big deal. The crowds had been a lot smaller than anticipated. So, let's go PA.

Heading up the street to vote now

It is about 7am on the east coast, has Trump declared victory yet?

Let’s do this

Ugh, I think I have ptsd from 2016. Every time I start feeling hopeful I get a stab of fear.

Oh 538 forecast switched to Harris at some point

it's barely a switch, 50-49

get off the fucking internet all of you

but i live here!!

Ivy otm

Nate Silver just switched to Harris, too: 50.015% to 49.985% https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

I think I'm going to make negronis tonight to watch the results. Feeling cautiously optimistic.

The official cocktail of ilx

xxp I see (on the internets) that this kid has run an awful lot of simulations

Negronis for everyone!

zach, please come back, we need a Negroni in your mitt.

jaymc beat me to it: perfect last projection. (And if you think he's crooked and for Trump, that should be very encouraging.)

https://postimg.cc/RqTKSx0B/3c11c575

I just voted in PA. Line a lot longer than in the past.

One of the longest lines I’ve ever been in to vote was in York, PA for the 2004 general election

The friend I canvassed with finally convinced his 83 year old mom in California to vote for Harris. She had voted for Trump in the past. So if Harris wins by one in California ...

Voted in WI, much longer line than usual when the polls opened at 7AM. My wife and I are used to being first and second to vote from our ward, today we were eighth and ninth!

Right-wing blowhard friend of mine is confidently counting on WI to elect both Trump and Hovde, plz prove him wrong Badgers.

so Nate has a 25% of Trump winning the popular vote. sure

A woman I know at my polling place got interviewed by This American Life. I guess they’re doing a story on a local race.

It does not bode so well. They had voted 5-0 Biden in 2020...

― Nabozo, Tuesday, November 5, 2024 3:19 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

apparently all 6 voted Haley in the primary so I'd say a 3-3 split (with 5-1 going for the R governor) is maybe a good sign. you got at least 2 defectors

remember, the polls have been showing Trump running ahead of virtually every downballot candidate

Anyway, tonight I’m either watching “Kill Bill I” or “Polite Society”

No line at my polling place in Chicago this morning. I remember long lines in 2016 and 2020, but this is the first time I have voted at this location, so maybe it's a smaller precinct. Or maybe people around here are more likely to have voted early.

Not directed at you, frogbs, but I did laugh last night when the CNN guy asked, in earnest, if there was anything that could be extrapolated from Dixville Notch's six votes. In baseball circles, we call that a small sample size.

The civil war will begin in Dixville Notch

well yes I assume anyone who chooses to live in Dixville Notch does not represent the broader United States

still my ongoing theory is that Trump's underperformance in primary polls and the fact that a significant # of folks voted Haley even after she dropped out is gonna be a difference maker, there's nothing to indicate that he's won enough of those voters back

Are there any psychic dolphins doing predictions this year?

i had forgotten about this. how Trump and his people put Trump's name on all the stimulus checks. it all makes sense now. why people thought he was so great and Biden sucks. i really do think people are that dumb. and Biden didn't put his names on the checks when he became President. that was his fatal mistake.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/inside-donald-trumps-stimulus-checks/story?id=77534116

sounds like biden is the dumb one

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/A1mN82gBRyL._CLa%7C2140%2C2000%7CB13THvahbGS.png%7C0%2C0%2C2140%2C2000%2B0.0%2C0.0%2C2140.0%2C2000.0_AC_UY1000_.png

you all don’t get your sweatshirt?