U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

Meanwhile:

https://www.propublica.org/article/donald-trump-media-outsourced-jobs-mexico-truth-social

Freeway is an all time rapper

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, November 4, 2024 2:04 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

def one of the top two rappers to be named after freeway ricky ross

"What We Do" is peak Rockafella

did we ever get to the bottom of why jay was surrounding himself with stocky guys from philly, sublimated desire to be in the lox maybe

his verse on here is heat goddamn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKr1mrpBwIM

this has historically been one of the better pollsters, at this point it seems pretty damn undeniable that things have shifted Harris's way in the final weeks

👀 Final PBS/NPR/Marist poll shows Harris wiping out Trump’s lead among men

Trump down from +16 among men last month to just +4 now

Harris still leads among women by double digits (+11) pic.twitter.com/XPTUUBLotD

— Ian Sams (@IanSams) November 4, 2024

Ralston (the annoying but historically otm Nevada poll watcher) just released his final prediction for Nevada: Harris by 0.3 points.

If that's right and Nevada voters can cure ballots until the weekend it's going to be a long week.

if other recent polls hold true Nevada ain't gonna matter

Gotta keep Fat Joe away from all after what he did for the Yankees

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/11/04/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/truth-social-00187158

My wife says the (not very) early voting lines in downtown Chicago right now are the longest she's ever seen, just blocks and blocks.

is this the first Presidential election where if one candidate loses, his life basically ends

I'd probably go like

-120 Harris
+110 Trump
+500 neither candidate above 50% win probability*

* There's about a 0.4% chance of an exact 269-269 tie in recent simulations

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2024

Mickey Rourke with an outfit change:

wow. how could a crook, a gangster and a murderer decide to endorse Donald Trump. who could have seen this coming? https://t.co/FWv6ZKT8Mx

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 4, 2024

is this the first Presidential election where if one candidate loses, his life basically ends

― Kurt Dandruff (Neanderthal), Monday, November 4, 2024 2:19 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean Trump has threatened to murder his opposition so this could go both ways

Whoopi Goldberg says she would feel better if Liz Cheney lead the FBI, CIA.

Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/VVfOtenb7P

— AF Post (@AFpost) November 4, 2024

What is the soonest the race could realistically be called tomorrow night?

anyone can call it whenever they want

"I've seen enough"

Shit, I'll call it right now.

there you go

fuck NYT but they just posted an update detailing all of the dwindling crowds Trump has had, including not being able to fill Fiserv, or Dorton Arena, so he's probably going to start ranting and raving about them in the next few hours.

(we in this thread had already talked about this crowds, because we're ahead of the curve)

the final vote tally should be around Feb. 23.

2026...

What red-blooded American male doesn’t want a beautiful woman instead of an ossified elderly male who wears a wig, makeup and high heels?

— 𝕊𝕦𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕖_𝔾𝕦𝕣𝕝 (@SundaeDivine) November 4, 2024

wtf does that Nate Silver post even mean?

What is the soonest the race could realistically be called tomorrow night?

― Cow_Art, Monday, November 4, 2024 3:24 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

When the needle is too drunk and passes out in a closet.

this just in. old guy sounds nuts. let's go there live...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxK3Sfiw86w

wtf does that Nate Silver post even mean?

― Raising Azure Asia (President Keyes), Monday, November 4, 2024 3:28 PM bookmarkflaglink

he's basically saying it's pretty close to 50/50....but is nudging Kamala's way.

50/50 is still a coin toss natch

gonna be so weird when Deputy Dog wins tomorrow in a surprise write-in upset

wtf does that Nate Silver post even mean?

― Raising Azure Asia (President Keyes), Monday, November 4, 2024 3:28 PM (fifty-eight seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

it means hed bet $120 to win $100 on harris to win
hed bet $100 to win $110 on trump to win
and $100 to win $500 neither candidate above 50% win probability (tho not sure what he means by win probability here)

blathering about football kick-off rules

fuck NYT but they just posted an update detailing all of the dwindling crowds Trump has had, including not being able to fill Fiserv, or Dorton Arena, so he's probably going to start ranting and raving about them in the next few hours.

(we in this thread had already talked about this crowds, because we're ahead of the curve)

― Kurt Dandruff (Neanderthal), Monday, November 4, 2024 2:26 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

just for reference I tried to find clips of the final rallies of Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney

they all were way more lively and well-attended than what you're seeing from Trump now

idk if I've ever seen a presidential candidate generate noticeably *less* enthusiasm in the final week. feels like an ominous sign for anyone but maybe even moreso the dude whose entire political identity revolved around these fucking rallies

I watched about a minute of that live rally against my better judgement. Don't know why it was surprising to hear he still doesn't pronounce Kamala correctly

I watched 30 seconds of that livestream and it was too much

He’s basically wearing a mud mask while attendees hold pink “Women for Trump” signs behind him

fantasizing about the Penn State wrestling team having a rumble with "The Migrants"

one of the reporters covering these said it's really striking and pretty much all the media folks are talking about, even in 2022 he was able to fill these types of venues

I went to Georgia to doorknock with the Athens dems ...

Thanks for doing this! The People's Republic of Athens may not be typical of the state as a whole but I'm grateful for the effort.

wtf does that Nate Silver post even mean?

LOOKIT MEEEEE (please please please look at me)

freeway update

Freeway tells LeVar Burton, “Yeah I grew up off you,” and starts singing the “Reading Rainbow” theme song pic.twitter.com/yiAAwmcf7M

— philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) November 3, 2024

why is @SundaeDivine kinkshaming?

is this the first Presidential election where if one candidate loses, his life basically ends

― Kurt Dandruff (Neanderthal), Monday, November 4, 2024 2:19 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Richard Bachman's The Farting Man

Freeway and LeVar Burton… man.

In today's installment of "the polls are bullshit (but can still be hilarious sometimes)", NBC news posted a national poll where Harris's share of the black vote is 87%, and Trump's is... 9%.

Black men for Trump! It's totally a real thing that deserved literally hundreds of articles!

Schoolly D or no credibility, Kamala!

otm

The audience at this rally is looking bored.

(Trump's, that is)

Silver should start a project with that Democratic data guy who lost his project because he was a gambling addict.

Hannity & Colmes for the gambling app era

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwUUZ8aDDMY