U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

im logging in lfg

The main difference between 2016 and now is that Trump is a much much worse candidate than he was back then, he's got an insurrection and 34 felonies on his record now, he looks and sounds like shit, his brain seems to be completely shot, he's getting half the crowds and half the # of donations, he's much less funny and much more unpleasant, he's got the abortion albatross around his neck, also it's been 9 fucking years of this shit

in 2016 there was a belief among Republicans that weren't completely insane that Trump at least was a good businessman who was gonna surround himself with normal GOP folks and they'd run the country like a business, which they thought was a great idea for whatever reason, there's like none of that shit now, Trump supporters can't articulate a single policy position that would actually help them

I'll be up late covering local elections, so I'll naturally be watching the national returns too. My work colleague has kindly volunteered to go to the local GOP election night party so at least I won't be in a room full of Republicans. And we have a stringer covering the local Dems, so I get to sit at home and monitor everything. (That's right, I'm running the Decision Desk — me, a laptop and a pizza at my dining table, periodically interrupted by other family members I'm sure.) I probably won't go to bed til around 4 a.m., so maybe things will be clear by then.

Some post about NC canvassing. take or leave the optimism, strictly as an observation it's impressive:

"I couldn’t get into the Zoom because they were over capacity, and when I did, they had run out of texting assignments so there was nothing left to do. It started at noon. It’s currently 12:14.

We’re gonna win."

Something I probably WILL do is wake up a little earlier than usual so there’s time to take in the podcasts and stories and scan this thread.

I did some NC canvassing by text yesterday -- optimism really does feel high, naturally that makes me worry

yeah I've heard a lot from canvassers and volunteers about how much enthusiasm they have, I'm curious what the Republicans who are doing this are saying but then I remembered they basically don't have any because the people who were supposed to organize that pretty much just took the money and ran lmao

I have a rehearsal until 9:30 on Tuesday night, I think k we are going to do shots afterwards

We may not get the NYT needle this year due to tech strike

It’s totally natural to worry about over optimism and potential false hopes based on vibes. I’ll be thrilled even if she pulls out a win based on the 1 EC point from Nebraska. But I’m so done with the maga circus, it’s worth it to me to risk a jinx by having high aspirations about the final result. If Biden could get to 306, I’d love to see Harris at Obama levels around 350-360. In 2008 Obama had a 7% edge in the popular vote vs 4.5% for Biden. It’s not out of reach if the vibes are real.

imo the biggest difference between this and past trump elections is dobbs

optimism really does feel high, naturally that makes me worry

Classic ILX in a nutshell

biggest difference also was HRC was felled by a few things in the last few weeks of the 2016 campaign, and the enthusiasm factor for her was more muted from those who might have normally turned out in better numbers for a D candidate (plus the disbelief that Trump would actually win, despite him having had an upswing and what was apparently a very well-oiled machine.) right now enthusiasm is higher and everyone knows Trump is more than capable of winning. who knows what might happen obv.

Regardless of how we’re doing at, say, 10 pm on election night, I don’t need the rush of emotion and adrenaline produced: I need to sleep.

my dad is flying into town for a visit, he chose an arrival at LAX for 8 PM. i don't know if i want to be out on the road at that time but maybe it'll be for the best if I can just vibe to balearic jams and cruise the freeways for awhile.

I hope you’re a good offspring and will not allow your father to take the nightmarish tram-to-Lyft pipeline. Pick him up at departures

the nightmarish tram-to-Lyft pipeline.

I discovered this delightful innovation in March.

So happy I will be on an overnight flight on election night. Hope you all have this sorted out in two weeks when I get back.

Omg they did a male version of the ‘secret vote’ ad and it’s even better than the female version. pic.twitter.com/qwXAtVWq4W

— TrumpsTaxes (@TrumpsTaxes) November 3, 2024

HRC was felled by a few things in the last few weeks of the 2016 campaign

And this year every new piece of information in the last two, maybe three weeks has been bad for Trump (Puerto Rico, Epstein recordings, Republican GOTV haplessness/fuckery, Elon Musk being Elon Musk). If you still think "Trump is more than capable of winning," despite his loss in 2020 and the Republican Party being punished in every national election since 2018, it's because you've been conditioned to think so by a media that was utterly broken by the 2016 election. Trump is not a mythic monster or some kind of political savant. He got lucky once, and he's actually so bad at politics (never mind leadership) that he completely squandered his incumbency advantage (hence "he got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016" and still lost, badly) four years ago. He's got loser stink on him so bad you can smell it through your laptop. They should literally throw him in the back of that garbage truck he was riding around in, come Wednesday morning.

https://cdn.xcancel.com/pic/orig/media%2FGbeNiqAbEAAT4rI.png

let's hope those "secret vote" ads are a Ticket to Paradise

https://media.vanityfair.com/photos/635013c804bd48b52a859a6d/master/pass/ticket-to-paradise-julia-roberts-george-clooney.jpg

https://www.salon.com/2024/11/03/i-voted-for-donald-in-2016-because-my-husband-did-im-not-going-back/

clear from that Alberta article that the people advocating for a more conventional/focussed message from trump have lost all influence in the closing weeks, probably since the Harris debate. who knows, maybe the victim complex and promise to do more crimes is a good closing message, but it's pretty obvious he's not listening to the ex-desantis people that were originally running his campaign any more.

Trump in PA told supporters he "shouldn't have the left" the White House in 2021 in a speech where he also repeated unfounded claims of widespread election fraud & said the election is "all about the lawyers"

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) November 3, 2024

biggest difference between this and past trump elections is dobbs

Dobbs, plus Jan 6, plus a 78 year old who half the nation loathes and who sounds demented is a heavy load to carry to a national victory.

Maybe this belongs in the containment thread but I'm worried that the plan is "induce unhinged supporters to storm counting facilities in cities in multiple states and destroy ballots and hope friendly courts can be induced to say, well, while this situation is of course quite regrettable, we can't count ballots that don't exist so we're declaring the results official without them"

That said, while I can be pretty cynical, I don't think I'm cynical enough to REALLY believe SCOTUS would play along with this

Post on Bluesky an hour back:

I was just on a ballot cure phone bank with 300 volunteers, roughly 90% of whom appeared to be middle aged or elderly women.

It's pretty obvious this is a bunch of people getting shit DONE and not being paid attention too.

To rather than too. Anyway.

These Dem volunteer anecdotes are really great.

Not traveling Tuesday evening and staying at home on Wednesday both seem to be great ideas

My employer gives me Tuesday off so my wife and I will go to the huge Impressionist exhibit at the National Gallery

Trump fucked my mom up so bad she ended up in a Ta-Nahisi book

in both the male and female versions of the cheating voters ad they make eye contact with a more liberal version of themselves while voting, i wasnt sure when it was just the lady one but now ive seen them both i think thats it, theyre saying were not that different just take a little step to the left its nice over here

this guy is mostly full of shit except on Election Day, but this is what I'm saying re: trump's closing message

Trump had one job in the final days: talk about the economy/border and tie Harris to Biden. And we're really talking about Puerto Rico and water fluoridation?

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2024

pretty funny to fail at the task of associating the vice president with the president

he always says "she has destroyed our country" and she is just the vice president lol

powerful closing message

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:swgxwbir4rrimj57pf75jckf/bafkreibejdrbjr2kwk7bdn3t3r77lh4wogpu6y5t7ulgh6d73zvw4kh3la@jpeg

The squirrel story is legit sad and dumb but I'm not sure why conservatives are so sure it's some big pro-Trump point. Because it happened in New York state I guess? I think any state wildlife control office would have been likely to act the same. My own reaction to it was "This is why you shouldn't call the cops."

It's over. So goes Jake, so goes the election.

https://i.imgur.com/yUxJ4CI.jpg

I don't like that the ad posted above shows him on his phone in the voting booth. At least here in Texas, that is very much not allowed.

I just looked up what this whole squirrel thing is about and… what

peanut the squirrel has been martyred

I just looked up what this whole squirrel thing is about and… what

― DJP, Sunday, November 3, 2024

yeah it's all a bit nutty

Reverse 2016, where the right is convinced that Twitter is real life

Interview with Iowa pollster Ann Selzer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-ysKh_Gyd0

lol

IF this is right (BIG if) and polling is underrating Democrats by this much, then we are absolutely 1000% in Biden could have won territory https://t.co/ld6yMkMaMQ

— Jonathan Robinson (@jon_m_rob) November 3, 2024

Idk if this is real but it’s definitely real - https://bsky.app/profile/its.cassie.baby/post/3la2qn7r34d2z

xp selzer had biden down by *18* points the last time she polled Iowa with biden in the race. lmao.

who knows if that's right, probably not, but if you're going to use a poll *not involving biden* as evidence that biden could have won, you don't get to ignore the same person's last poll with biden included..