U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

tough sell lol

Harris campaign saw the same thing in internals. That's why Pete was in Iowa this week doing local media. https://t.co/6OJbV3Jmyu

— Alejandra Caraballo is on Bluesky/Threads (@Esqueer_) November 2, 2024

I know a ton of us have gotten irritated with Kamala actively trying to court conservatives but who knows maybe they did identify a real opening

― frogbs, Sunday, November 3, 2024 11:01 AM (thirteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

you know how much it pains me to say this but could be, liz cheney particularly is a an older white lady who has broken from the gop, seems to be the demo theyre getting movement from

jayyyyyyysus I can't believe we're so close this particular phase of this shit being done. Bring it on. I'm feelin good. It is very possible that in 3 days the Trump era is over except for the whining. Focusing on that.

im looking for the W need that W baby get the bum outta here

jayyyyyyysus I can't believe we're so close this particular phase of this shit being done. Bring it on. I'm feelin good. It is very possible that in 3 days the Trump era is over except for the whining. Focusing on that.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Sunday, November 3, 2024 1

I stayed out last night longer than I should have because I was feelin' pretty euphoric.

I've watched a lot of Harris's recent apperances and she is definitely coming off like someone who fully expects to win

so did HRC iirc, I'm feeling the vibes too but I'm trying to temper them. as late as 8:00 on election night 2020 I felt pretty good

she did for most of it but idk that last week was pretty rough, every news network was talking about the Comey/email thing nonstop, in fact now that I think of it it was the November Selzer Iowa poll that convinced a lot of political junkies it wasn't in the bag as much as everyone thought

I mean here's what Trump is like in the final week, I think this might be the first campaign where every stop is actively hurting him

"We're never been this low ... it's a failed country. That's what it is" -- complete nonsense to start the day from Trump pic.twitter.com/HLu4BRPi8W

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2024

The main difference between 2016 and now is that conventional wisdom was that Trump had no chance of winning, some polls as far as 3 weeks out showed Hillary up 10% nationally, and so when the Comey thing happened and late dropping polls showed a much tighter race (plus Selzer's poll), people like me ignored it and said "nah, it's still in the bag".

This time around it's kinda "tea leaf reading" more than anything, which is why I'm optimistic but not confident, but the narrative this time was that TRUMP had all the momentum and now we are getting late breaking breadcrumbs suggesting it might be breaking back to Kamala.

I don't begrudge anybody for being stressed and worried - I'm going to be a wreck on Tuesday because I know this is nowhere near a comfortable guarantee. But it was a good two days of news at least.

On Wed afternoon I have to show in my film class a certain Fassbinder joint. I suggest re-titling it Alfred: Fear Eats His Soul.

I not only want to Kamala to win but to do so resoundingly such that there is a L forever imprinted on the trump movement and they will have to slink back into the darkness never to be heard from again as a serious threat. Gotta aim high lol

^^^^

I'm not confident of anything, because it wouldn't be based on anything solid. But I'm going with the vibes until proven otherwise. (And if we are gonna do another terrible four years of Trump, I hope the vibes can consolidate quickly into active countermeasures rather than paralyzing despair. Won't be time for that.)

To support this, the final NYT/Siena polls show Kamala up 3 in Nevada, 2.5 in NC, and 0.5 in Georgia, but tied in PA and down 1 in Michigan.

So....again...who knows

winning NC and losing MI does not seem like a plausible result to me

I typed the same message to two friends earlier but wrote Hillary instead of Kamala.

Clearly I'm still traumatized

I am working at the gym on Tuesday, and after my day is over I will be climbing at the gym, and I have no intention of checking anything until I get home, walk my dogs, and eat something tasty.

i’m happy for the last minute good news but also worried for you guys lol. just don’t get your hopes too high ok..

I’m sure we’ll revisit these numbers in the coming weeks but, for reference:

2020 Electoral Vote Counts:

Biden 306
Trump 232

2016 Electoral Vote Counts:

Trump 304
Clinton 227

Table, your plan sounds like a good one.

I intend to get a bit lit after work on Tuesday, watch a favorite movie (not sure which yet) and go to bed early. No news after 7 pm, and woe to any friends or relatives who try to call me about returns, I do not want to know until the next morning

im logging in lfg

The main difference between 2016 and now is that Trump is a much much worse candidate than he was back then, he's got an insurrection and 34 felonies on his record now, he looks and sounds like shit, his brain seems to be completely shot, he's getting half the crowds and half the # of donations, he's much less funny and much more unpleasant, he's got the abortion albatross around his neck, also it's been 9 fucking years of this shit

in 2016 there was a belief among Republicans that weren't completely insane that Trump at least was a good businessman who was gonna surround himself with normal GOP folks and they'd run the country like a business, which they thought was a great idea for whatever reason, there's like none of that shit now, Trump supporters can't articulate a single policy position that would actually help them

I'll be up late covering local elections, so I'll naturally be watching the national returns too. My work colleague has kindly volunteered to go to the local GOP election night party so at least I won't be in a room full of Republicans. And we have a stringer covering the local Dems, so I get to sit at home and monitor everything. (That's right, I'm running the Decision Desk — me, a laptop and a pizza at my dining table, periodically interrupted by other family members I'm sure.) I probably won't go to bed til around 4 a.m., so maybe things will be clear by then.

Some post about NC canvassing. take or leave the optimism, strictly as an observation it's impressive:

"I couldn’t get into the Zoom because they were over capacity, and when I did, they had run out of texting assignments so there was nothing left to do. It started at noon. It’s currently 12:14.

We’re gonna win."

Something I probably WILL do is wake up a little earlier than usual so there’s time to take in the podcasts and stories and scan this thread.

I did some NC canvassing by text yesterday -- optimism really does feel high, naturally that makes me worry

yeah I've heard a lot from canvassers and volunteers about how much enthusiasm they have, I'm curious what the Republicans who are doing this are saying but then I remembered they basically don't have any because the people who were supposed to organize that pretty much just took the money and ran lmao

I have a rehearsal until 9:30 on Tuesday night, I think k we are going to do shots afterwards

We may not get the NYT needle this year due to tech strike

It’s totally natural to worry about over optimism and potential false hopes based on vibes. I’ll be thrilled even if she pulls out a win based on the 1 EC point from Nebraska. But I’m so done with the maga circus, it’s worth it to me to risk a jinx by having high aspirations about the final result. If Biden could get to 306, I’d love to see Harris at Obama levels around 350-360. In 2008 Obama had a 7% edge in the popular vote vs 4.5% for Biden. It’s not out of reach if the vibes are real.

imo the biggest difference between this and past trump elections is dobbs

optimism really does feel high, naturally that makes me worry

Classic ILX in a nutshell

biggest difference also was HRC was felled by a few things in the last few weeks of the 2016 campaign, and the enthusiasm factor for her was more muted from those who might have normally turned out in better numbers for a D candidate (plus the disbelief that Trump would actually win, despite him having had an upswing and what was apparently a very well-oiled machine.) right now enthusiasm is higher and everyone knows Trump is more than capable of winning. who knows what might happen obv.

Regardless of how we’re doing at, say, 10 pm on election night, I don’t need the rush of emotion and adrenaline produced: I need to sleep.

my dad is flying into town for a visit, he chose an arrival at LAX for 8 PM. i don't know if i want to be out on the road at that time but maybe it'll be for the best if I can just vibe to balearic jams and cruise the freeways for awhile.

I hope you’re a good offspring and will not allow your father to take the nightmarish tram-to-Lyft pipeline. Pick him up at departures

the nightmarish tram-to-Lyft pipeline.

I discovered this delightful innovation in March.

So happy I will be on an overnight flight on election night. Hope you all have this sorted out in two weeks when I get back.

Omg they did a male version of the ‘secret vote’ ad and it’s even better than the female version. pic.twitter.com/qwXAtVWq4W

— TrumpsTaxes (@TrumpsTaxes) November 3, 2024

HRC was felled by a few things in the last few weeks of the 2016 campaign

And this year every new piece of information in the last two, maybe three weeks has been bad for Trump (Puerto Rico, Epstein recordings, Republican GOTV haplessness/fuckery, Elon Musk being Elon Musk). If you still think "Trump is more than capable of winning," despite his loss in 2020 and the Republican Party being punished in every national election since 2018, it's because you've been conditioned to think so by a media that was utterly broken by the 2016 election. Trump is not a mythic monster or some kind of political savant. He got lucky once, and he's actually so bad at politics (never mind leadership) that he completely squandered his incumbency advantage (hence "he got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016" and still lost, badly) four years ago. He's got loser stink on him so bad you can smell it through your laptop. They should literally throw him in the back of that garbage truck he was riding around in, come Wednesday morning.

https://cdn.xcancel.com/pic/orig/media%2FGbeNiqAbEAAT4rI.png

let's hope those "secret vote" ads are a Ticket to Paradise

https://media.vanityfair.com/photos/635013c804bd48b52a859a6d/master/pass/ticket-to-paradise-julia-roberts-george-clooney.jpg

https://www.salon.com/2024/11/03/i-voted-for-donald-in-2016-because-my-husband-did-im-not-going-back/

clear from that Alberta article that the people advocating for a more conventional/focussed message from trump have lost all influence in the closing weeks, probably since the Harris debate. who knows, maybe the victim complex and promise to do more crimes is a good closing message, but it's pretty obvious he's not listening to the ex-desantis people that were originally running his campaign any more.

Trump in PA told supporters he "shouldn't have the left" the White House in 2021 in a speech where he also repeated unfounded claims of widespread election fraud & said the election is "all about the lawyers"

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) November 3, 2024

biggest difference between this and past trump elections is dobbs

Dobbs, plus Jan 6, plus a 78 year old who half the nation loathes and who sounds demented is a heavy load to carry to a national victory.

Maybe this belongs in the containment thread but I'm worried that the plan is "induce unhinged supporters to storm counting facilities in cities in multiple states and destroy ballots and hope friendly courts can be induced to say, well, while this situation is of course quite regrettable, we can't count ballots that don't exist so we're declaring the results official without them"

That said, while I can be pretty cynical, I don't think I'm cynical enough to REALLY believe SCOTUS would play along with this

Post on Bluesky an hour back:

I was just on a ballot cure phone bank with 300 volunteers, roughly 90% of whom appeared to be middle aged or elderly women.

It's pretty obvious this is a bunch of people getting shit DONE and not being paid attention too.