U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

the seltzer poll delivers a result that the nyt by its own admission would never have published. surely kamala +3 in iowa is as “unbelievable” as kamala +7 in pennsylvania would be? the times prob would’ve “adjusted” this result to be trump +5 or something

― hott ogo (voodoo chili), Saturday, November 2, 2024 9:23 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

very funny to make all the calls do all the statistics then be like hmm that doesnt look right

This time four years ago, when it looked like Joe Biden was romping to a landslide victory over Trump, it was Selzer who delivered a reality check.

Her final poll for the Des Moines Register in Iowa showed Trump and the incumbent Republican senator with sizable leads, despite the conventional wisdom that both races were close — so close that Biden had just visited Des Moines the day before, four days before the election.

And her poll was right, further establishing her as something of a Midwestern oracle. Her reputation has been burnished by a series of spot-on polls, both in general elections and in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses.

Even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa next week — and with a combined 9 percent choosing another candidate or undecided, it’s certainly possible things could change — the poll could presage greater-than-expected strength for the Democratic nominee in states with similar demographic profiles that are part of the battleground mix, like Wisconsin.

It's nuts but one of my friends msged me about the Selzer poll, and I'm backstage doing a show and my friend came over to me excitedly about it.

Shit we wouldn't have given a fuck about 15 years ago and it's circulating like Taylor Swift news

credit where its due trump has gotten the country more interested in politics

Betting markets moving

https://i.ibb.co/7WNpm1m/Screenshot-20241102-215644-Chrome.jpg

Glad we can trust the polls now.

― clemenza, Saturday, November 2, 2024 7:22 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is the first one that’s made any sense

We have successfully unskewed the polls.

theyre shook lol cant even make up a poll thats good for them

🚨 SOURCE: Tonight, I spoke with a senior Republican strategist, known for accurate polling in Iowa, who shared private data showing President Trump at +5 in the state.

I trust this source.

— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) November 3, 2024

nate silver is adding this to his average as we speak

https://bsky.app/profile/esopterodactyl.bsky.social/post/3l7z4lplpwe2y

selzer poll is great news. the recent epstein tape seems significant too. wish that dropped a few weeks ago.

Who sits on those tapes for seven years, including though the 2020 election and releases them three days before an election. They’re probably real but Wolff is a mf with some dark secrets.

We have to stop calling former politicians by their former titles

The Harris SNL appearance was not bad

We have to stop calling former politicians by their former titles

You could also stop adding "Mister" to the front of it, you big fucking weirdos.

Why don't we just follow Donald's lead and call him the Trumpster

The get out the vote phone and cancass numbers the Harris campaign just released for Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are pretty astounding.

The meme has been updated, naturally:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbbxG9DbAAAkV-n.png

Abolish all honorifics.

outside of the day 2020 was called this sure feels like the worst day of Trump's political career

Just bookmarked a David Sacks tweet to check in Nov 6

Imagine Stancil’s replies on Nov 6 if it’s clearly Kamala

I've met Giancarlo Sopo, a genuine douchebag in a party full of them.

interesting graph

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbbkLD0aIAASQ2W?format=png&name=900x900

One scenario we can probably rule out is a significant drop in overall turnout vs. '20, esp. in key states. Several fast-growing counties (Dawson, GA; Brunswick, NC) have already surpassed final '20 raw votes cast. Even in Helene-hit NC counties, early voting robust.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2024

Good essay on what to do with these garbage people:

https://www.the-reframe.com/apology-not-accepted/

Jesus, Megyn Kelly looks like end days Gilda Radner in that pic, the hate is poisonous

https://bsky.app/profile/walterolson.bsky.social/post/3la2i7pvyni2s

that is violence

this is dalton bitch we clown in this motherfucker

im not kevin its from twitter

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jcpcmok7n6t3uwg5zyzjmqnp/bafkreiaqgd2w3bxf4kccqlo2nj6svyac2skwagjgdcyfbjsmsazqk2ihqy@jpeg

lol cocktail prices have been creeping toward $20 for some time now ...

i mean bluesky, blue twitter xp

big story from the Selzer poll may not even be the actual result, it's that Trump is doing way worse with women than we thought, especially women over 50

might explain why those ads suggesting wives cancel out their husbands' votes are hitting such a nerve. they must know this is a thing that's happening

the other takeway, reflected in those less-than-stellar Kansas and Ohio polls, is that the last week has been really bad for Trump and that the MSG rally might've made it really clear what MAGA really is

might explain why those ads suggesting wives cancel out their husbands' votes are hitting such a nerve. they must know this is a thing that's happening

― frogbs, Sunday, November 3, 2024 10:46 AM (seventeen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yup

that poll trendline i post upthread shows womens self id on abortion tracking roughly to party id for years then splitting rapidly after dobbs, thats scary for them, realignment type stuff

If they find it scary that they can’t win being hateful bullies, maybe they should try not being hateful bullies & see if that helps them feel better.

I know a ton of us have gotten irritated with Kamala actively trying to court conservatives but who knows maybe they did identify a real opening

not gonna happen xpost

tough sell lol

Harris campaign saw the same thing in internals. That's why Pete was in Iowa this week doing local media. https://t.co/6OJbV3Jmyu

— Alejandra Caraballo is on Bluesky/Threads (@Esqueer_) November 2, 2024

I know a ton of us have gotten irritated with Kamala actively trying to court conservatives but who knows maybe they did identify a real opening

― frogbs, Sunday, November 3, 2024 11:01 AM (thirteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

you know how much it pains me to say this but could be, liz cheney particularly is a an older white lady who has broken from the gop, seems to be the demo theyre getting movement from

jayyyyyyysus I can't believe we're so close this particular phase of this shit being done. Bring it on. I'm feelin good. It is very possible that in 3 days the Trump era is over except for the whining. Focusing on that.

im looking for the W need that W baby get the bum outta here

jayyyyyyysus I can't believe we're so close this particular phase of this shit being done. Bring it on. I'm feelin good. It is very possible that in 3 days the Trump era is over except for the whining. Focusing on that.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Sunday, November 3, 2024 1

I stayed out last night longer than I should have because I was feelin' pretty euphoric.

I've watched a lot of Harris's recent apperances and she is definitely coming off like someone who fully expects to win

so did HRC iirc, I'm feeling the vibes too but I'm trying to temper them. as late as 8:00 on election night 2020 I felt pretty good

she did for most of it but idk that last week was pretty rough, every news network was talking about the Comey/email thing nonstop, in fact now that I think of it it was the November Selzer Iowa poll that convinced a lot of political junkies it wasn't in the bag as much as everyone thought

I mean here's what Trump is like in the final week, I think this might be the first campaign where every stop is actively hurting him

"We're never been this low ... it's a failed country. That's what it is" -- complete nonsense to start the day from Trump pic.twitter.com/HLu4BRPi8W

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2024