U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

they found one!

One of the joys of canvassing is that you meet people who fall into nobody's mental categories.

Case in point: the 70yo white guy I just canvassed who told me he's undecided because they're both great candidates and both would do a great job.

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 2, 2024

Holy shit

holy smokes --- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) November 2, 2024

👀

That’s insane

Slipknot at the inauguration let's gooo

Trump is going to jail

https://i.imgur.com/u6alk49.png

User mh needs to confirm if that's what he's seeing on the ground.

People half an hour ago saying trump by anything less than 6 or 7 in that poll is great news for Harris.

The French have an expression to describe men who have a deep mahogany tan and/or bronzer:

POULET ROTI

wow that is the Ann Selzer poll

tempering my expectations by recalling the Wisconsin poll in 2020 that had Biden +17 a week before the election

otoh...

Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets. https://t.co/OfFO6ePDLy

— Matthew Klein (@MattKleinOnline) November 2, 2024

Fair but that wasn’t Ann selzer

the WI 2020 poll you mean? yeah that was ABC/WaPo

if trump win Iowa by one vote this will be selzer’s biggest polling miss … ever? I mean it’s possible and maybe it’s still a Biden level win in electoral votes, or less but I just don’t see any of the blue wall being in danger with this poll, and that’s the election.

uhh

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

would be funny if all the pollsters suddenly untrump their polls now

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co

ive seen enough dems are winning im calling it

― lag∞n, Tuesday, August 6, 2024 9:24 AM (two months ago)

respect

Trump won Iowa by 10 last time I think

the most prestigious poll xp

trump beat Biden by 8.2 in Iowa in 2020

What was the article revealing pro-trump polling bias for fear of underestimating him again? Seems like a lot of them started flipping once that came out. Like a bunch of them suddenly realized that they were going to get blamed for feeding his inevitable stolen election conspiracy when he loses big if they kept up the coin flip narrative.

big late break to kamala lol

Obama won Iowa both times. But if Harris is winning in Iowa, she's gonna win a hell of a lot more than the "whew, we made it" swing states. If that happens, this election is gonna be a genuine repudiation of Trumpism and the Republican Party writ large. A trifecta would not be surprising at that point.

I know Obama won it in 08 but I didn’t think he did in 12

obama won iowa in 2012 by 5.8

Glad we can trust the polls now.

gotta nuke somethin'

Iowa is responsible for more than inspiring Bloom County?

kamala on snl tonight...

I cannot watch topical, depressing bullshit like Saturday Night Live

Iowa is responsible for more than inspiring Bloom County?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fVE8kSM43I

If that happens, this election is gonna be a genuine repudiation of Trumpism and the Republican Party writ large.

Eh. It's very conceivable that a widespread repudiation of another Trump term as President would not indicate a repudiation of the Republican Party generally, or even all aspects of Trumpism. Trump's appeal has waned this election largely based on factors that don't necessarily extend to other GOP candidates, e.g. his advanced age, growing incoherence, increasingly vengeful rhetoric, and perhaps voter distaste for Vance - who they understand could easily become president when you look at Trump's advanced age & growing incoherence.

But, if voters decide to take Congress away from the Republicans I won't kick.

Epstein tapes https://www.thedailybeast.com/listen-to-the-jeffrey-epstein-tapes-i-was-donald-trumps-closest-friend/

Did he fuck Stan Chera’s wife?

Tune in to tomorrow's Meet the Press to find out.

the seltzer poll delivers a result that the nyt by its own admission would never have published. surely kamala +3 in iowa is as “unbelievable” as kamala +7 in pennsylvania would be? the times prob would’ve “adjusted” this result to be trump +5 or something

if trump win Iowa by one vote this will be selzer’s biggest polling miss … ever?

their biggest miss was having D+2 (off by 5 from actual result of R+3) for iowa governor in 2018 - even if you assume a similar miss this time and trump wins iowa with a 2% margin then that still implies dems should do well in general yeah, barring some bizarre result where iowa is a significant outlier and there wasn't much evidence for that because most pollsters were herding

What was the article revealing pro-trump polling bias for fear of underestimating him again? Seems like a lot of them started flipping once that came out. Like a bunch of them suddenly realized that they were going to get blamed for feeding his inevitable stolen election conspiracy when he loses big if they kept up the coin flip narrative.

this hasn't happened, most are still herding which is very frustrating for getting anything useful out of them. selzer wasn't going to herd regardless

Poll-heads say Selzer is the gold standard just absolutely not one to fuck with the numbers and their track record has been impeccable.

the seltzer poll delivers a result that the nyt by its own admission would never have published. surely kamala +3 in iowa is as “unbelievable” as kamala +7 in pennsylvania would be? the times prob would’ve “adjusted” this result to be trump +5 or something

― hott ogo (voodoo chili), Saturday, November 2, 2024 9:23 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

very funny to make all the calls do all the statistics then be like hmm that doesnt look right

This time four years ago, when it looked like Joe Biden was romping to a landslide victory over Trump, it was Selzer who delivered a reality check.

Her final poll for the Des Moines Register in Iowa showed Trump and the incumbent Republican senator with sizable leads, despite the conventional wisdom that both races were close — so close that Biden had just visited Des Moines the day before, four days before the election.

And her poll was right, further establishing her as something of a Midwestern oracle. Her reputation has been burnished by a series of spot-on polls, both in general elections and in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses.

Even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa next week — and with a combined 9 percent choosing another candidate or undecided, it’s certainly possible things could change — the poll could presage greater-than-expected strength for the Democratic nominee in states with similar demographic profiles that are part of the battleground mix, like Wisconsin.

It's nuts but one of my friends msged me about the Selzer poll, and I'm backstage doing a show and my friend came over to me excitedly about it.

Shit we wouldn't have given a fuck about 15 years ago and it's circulating like Taylor Swift news

credit where its due trump has gotten the country more interested in politics

Betting markets moving

https://i.ibb.co/7WNpm1m/Screenshot-20241102-215644-Chrome.jpg

Glad we can trust the polls now.

― clemenza, Saturday, November 2, 2024 7:22 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is the first one that’s made any sense

We have successfully unskewed the polls.

theyre shook lol cant even make up a poll thats good for them

🚨 SOURCE: Tonight, I spoke with a senior Republican strategist, known for accurate polling in Iowa, who shared private data showing President Trump at +5 in the state.

I trust this source.

— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) November 3, 2024

nate silver is adding this to his average as we speak

https://bsky.app/profile/esopterodactyl.bsky.social/post/3l7z4lplpwe2y