U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

is Trump getting heckled at his own rallies now

While Trump is rambling about Biden, a supporter yells “who cares” pic.twitter.com/0NXcu9LqMp

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 1, 2024

but yeah it does seem like a lot of big name poll dudes have kinda suddenly realized in the last few days that the polls are not really matching what we're seeing on the ground at all and maybe this fear of underestimating Trump again made them go too far in the other direction

theyre looking at the facts on the ground and saying weird this looks like what my polls are saying before the fear of trump adjustment

I'm all for the trump-leaning polls if it drives turnout, they can eat their crow later

like if you could boil 2016 down to one lesson it's that Trump was not an aberration, if you treated him like a normal candidate his victory shouldn't have been all that shocked

now we're in 2024 and he IS the GOP establishment and we're still assuming there's some sort of Trumpy magic out there that's making this a coinflip despite the fact that his small donor numbers and crowd sizes have completely cratered, we see now he has basically zero ground game, and his campaign has decided to focus on "we are trash people" for its closing message

Politico story:

Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP

Kamala Harris’ campaign is feeling good about their chances with voters who are only now making up their minds about who to cast their ballots for.

Harris campaign manager David Plouffe wrote Friday afternoon on X that late-deciding voters are “breaking by double digits” for the vice president, with “the remaining undecideds looking more friendly” to them than Donald Trump. His comments echo those shared by senior campaign officials earlier Friday on a call with reporters.

“We have believed all along that there were still undecided voters here, and that the close of this race was really, really important,” said one of the senior campaign officials, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state of the race. “And we are seeing that be the case as we are closing out in the last week.”

The official said that a recent focus group with undecided voters in a battleground state showed that the racist, misogynistic and vulgar language at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally in New York over the weekend isn’t just impacting Puerto Rican and Latino voters, but undecided voters as a whole.

“It really kind of crystallized for them the choice in their minds between the vice president, who they're seeing talk about being a president for everyone, someone focused on them and solving their problems, and Trump, and these really kind of dark, divisive language and events and activities,” the official said. “We don't always see, when we're talking to swing voters, anything that you can really see them kind of finalize their point of view or finalize their opinion.”

and his campaign has decided to focus on "we are trash people" for its closing message

would be great if he were to encourage his ever-dwindling crowds to throw rotting garbage at him on the podium, just go all-in on the garbage thing

just trash folks

Can’t believe sources inside the Harris campaign aren’t saying “we’re completely shitting the bed, everything’s fucked, everybody sucks”

Just dancing alone on stage to "YMCA" while he does that double jack-off dance he does, being pelted by garbage from all sides. Helluva way to end the campaign.

need to know what percentage of the electorate waits til the final week to make up their mind who are these people

"C'mon people, is that the best you got?? Let's see some GARBAAAAAGE!!" in a pro-wrestling voice

trash not trans

look I'll be honest if this really does all come down to like 50k votes in PA it may be worth all the heart attacks along the way. the idea of a roast comedian singlehandedly preventing the Fourth Reich feels like it would make the perfect Tim Heidecker movie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PdKGDMhau4

Can’t believe sources inside the Harris campaign aren’t saying “we’re completely shitting the bed, everything’s fucked, everybody sucks”

There have been plenty of those stories. These are Democrats we're talking about, after all.

need to know what percentage of the electorate waits til the final week to make up their mind who are these people

Your parents and their friends. The cashier at the weed store. ILXor table (although his choice was between voting Harris and not voting).

The Uncommitted voters are also undecided in this way, and there are tons of them.

not my parents and their friends fwiw theyre all resistance libs ill have to ask the bud tender tho

I haven't voted yet but that has more to do with laziness over down-ticket candidates (dog-catcher, etc) and mysterious ballot propositions that I don't understand

Trump rally heckler OTM

he thought it was a Thom Yorke gig

It’s not too late for W. to weigh in

The Uncommitted voters are also undecided in this way, and there are tons of them.

― guillotine vogue (suzy), Friday, November 1, 2024 4:26 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

seems to be a lot of evidence they are going for Harris though. it's a choose-your-preferred-enemy strategy

I think it is actually a lot of folks who don't normally vote, don't pay attention to the news, have friends on both sides that they don't wanna upset, think "whatever both sides are corrupt" but just hate the divisiveness. I know because I have a friend like this and he's one of the happiest dudes i know. again this isn't the Trump of 2016 where you don't know what he's gonna do, people associate him more with Hitler now than they do the Celebrity Apprentice

they mail out ballots here but i like to turn mine in on the day of the election so i can check out the scene at the polls (old ladies with clipboards at the fire station) also i have not decided yet haha

I was at Target the other day and even the guy handing out free samples of some energy water shit was talking to some (engaged!) customer about what a piece of shit Trump is.

fwiw I see a lot of people I know who loathe Harris but loathe Trump more breaking for Harris because the idea of four more years of Trump makes them feel nauseous, and they realize that Palestinians will be even worse off should Trump win. that was essentially my calculus, too.

https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/elections/arizona-top-prosecutor-kris-investigating-trumps-comments-about-cheney-possible-death-threat/75-91f8b734-06eb-4aeb-a633-89be0df7c4c4

double haters breaking for harris we love to see it

trump going on about immigrants taking the 'african-american jobs' again

look after that Trump-Biden debate the thing I heard constantly from real, not-very-online folks was "how is it these two, they both are so old and brain damaged, I'd vote for anyone else" and welp now's your chance

got em

https://media1.tenor.com/m/BKk0-I2aA78AAAAd/we-got.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7MQ5rxUZsc

Should have called them shitheads not garbage, now they’d all be happily walking round with fresh turds coiled on their wigs.

Nate Silver of all people is very much not buying this

We ran the numbers. Even if all 7 swing states are actually tied, there's only a ~1 in 9.5 trillion chance~ that so many polls would show such a close race. 🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑 pic.twitter.com/X131aHveRR

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2024

Sir, please, i have tears in my eyes i dont know what the fuck that means

you have to admit, trump HAS brought a lot of people together. think of all the strange bedfellows! i never thought i would ever see so many Republicans supporting a Democrat like this! it truly is unprezidenated.

This is a journey:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:q5wqr7zofdqyqwoki4cby36x/bafkreibvhnwvm4a7o7rrolw52fap2wawwc64itvr5kceboumljvtafdd5i@jpeg

haa

lol

Man, the strangest bedfellows

so much beauty packed into so few words!

Just need Billy McFarland on board.

So... pollsters are basically punk ass people who juke the stats to please their bosses and keep their jobs.

Kewl. https://t.co/6dy2J6Mouk

— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) November 1, 2024

The more I think about it, the more that this is just an AMAZING admission from the NYT pollster.

He's saying that his people are so terrified of being wrong that they're literally stoking fires of a Trump victory... which will fuel Trump's claims that the vote was rigged.

— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) November 1, 2024

Could just be hopium but it sure sounds like the people who have been publicly freaking us out with this coin flip narrative are starting to realize there’s actually a clear favorite here

maybe we should just stop all this hand-wringing polling shit in the future and just wait for the outcome... is there any real reason to torture ourselves?

Lock thread!

the polls arent really the problem the problem is american elections last for fucking ever

Is Nasty Nate Silver doing a face turn?