U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

we all have a basic drive towards self-interest, and it doesn't take a huge amount of messaging that it's ok or even good to give into those instincts at the expense of what our more evolved but also instinctive sense of morality and human compassion and solidarity might guide us to do. it's classic angel on one shoulder, devil on the other shit. and this is the result of decades of that messaging that the first instinct is equally or more valid as the second, coming from what is presented in our society as a credible source, if not explicitly the voice of the angel

Anecdata via a text from my mom, who lives in Lebanon, NJ:

Went out to the library for early voting. Parking lot was jammed. Line took about 20 minutes. A couple behind he had their just turned 18 son with them. He was cheered by the crowd. The family was going out to lunch to celebrate.

Another 70 degree day.

Politico: Why the Polls Might Be Wrong - In Kamala Harris' Favor

For eight years, pollsters have been striving to accurately capture former President Donald Trump’s level of support among voters. Even today, on the eve of his third campaign for the presidency, there’s no confidence they’ve nailed it. It raises a question that not enough people are asking: If it’s taken that long to adjust for Trump, is 100 days enough to accurately poll potential Vice President Kamala Harris voters?

It’s not just an academic question. There’s reason to believe that, just as proved to be the case with Trump, there is a fuller range of Harris voters who aren’t being measured.

In this election cycle, pollsters have made a clear effort to explore various methodologies that enable a deeper dive into Trump’s areas of support that were previously underrepresented in past polling. But when asked about the challenge of tracking an abbreviated Harris campaign in the wake of an historic candidate swap, some pollsters believed that the polling transition from Biden to Harris would be “relatively seamless.”

...

While Trump voters have found their voice and the polls have adapted to better hear them, the same cannot be said for many “forgotten” Harris voters that polls are ill-equipped to capture. These voters are not necessarily “shy” with their support for Harris, instead they are overlooked by current polling methods. One such group is a subset of Republicans who increasingly feel politically homeless within their own party: Nikki Haley voters.

A national survey of Nikki Haley’s primary voters conducted in early October by the Democratic polling firm Blueprint has charted this group’s slow but significant shift away from supporting Trump and their increasing willingness to support Democratic presidential candidates over time. (Notably, this survey excludes registered Democrats who voted for Nikki Haley in primaries to ensure the results truly reflect Republican-leaning voter sentiments.) The survey showed that while 66 percent of Haley primary voters supported Trump in 2016, that number dropped to 59 percent in 2020 and is expected to drop even further to 45 percent in this year’s election. Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.

Basically, the piece seems to be arguing that to assume for polling purposes that all Harris supporters are Democrats could be a serious fuckup.

This is too rich to digest, considering you've given DJT the benefit of the doubt exactly the way Doctor Casino did many, many times over the years.

― WmC, Friday, November 1, 2024 10:17 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

sorry, what exactly are you referring to here?

I don't have the energy to find examples, so I'll withdraw the comment.

The latest TrueAnon podcast has the hosts recount their visit to the MSG America First rally, where just the low-effort, batshit, confidently ignorant pose from the punters in line that exhausted Brace so much he drop his usual ironic style just to lambast them.

https://m.soundcloud.com/trueanonpod/the-player-haters-ball

Far more boos from the audience as the night wore on as the number of idiotic grifter freaks that Don Jr or Eric Trump probably got on the bill kept being introduced as speakers.

I just clicked that link and HOLY FUCK. How does anyone listen to TWO SOLID HOURS of three solipsistic assholes jabbering like that? After five minutes I wanted to do things to them that would make Art the Clown avert his eyes.

lets check in on Newsmax

Newsmax host Rob Schmitt: "Do you know what a furry is? Did you see that episode of Entourage years ago? If not, Google it because the president might be one."https://t.co/X7JzsrCWlD

— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) November 1, 2024

It’s a good podcast imo

uh xp though I also listen religiously to every newsmax podcast

This is pretty funny; tier-2 right-wing hack Hugh Hewitt flipped out during a Washington Post live chat and stormed off the set after host Jonathan Capehart pointed out that he is, in fact, a lying right-wing hack who will say fucking anything if it benefits Trump and/or the Republican Party.

my god it's insane how much AP is in the tank for Trump

https://i.imgur.com/aqoFbmU.png

I had a video on my TikTok FYP giving tips on spoofing the canvassing and door knocking app used by the Elon Musk PAC. The video presented this as a life hack to make some extra money rather than a protest.

How does anyone listen to TWO SOLID HOURS of three solipsistic assholes jabbering like that?

Nice to see when a podcast can elicit a response, tho “solipsistic” is pretty far from an accurate descriptor of them.

would like to take a minute to salute the great patriots getting paid to enter fake door knocks into trumps gotv app

pretty wild comparing the Trump of 2016 or even 2020 to what we're seeing now, everyone says the presidency ages you dramatically which seems like it was true for everyone *but* Trump, for him *not* being President is what caused him to fall apart

hes also just old

Ozempic Brain

for him *not* being President is what caused him to fall apart

including for the first 70 years of his life, don't forget he wasn't president then either and he was a total shitshow

well the last 3 1/2 years have been filled with indictments, FBI searches, lawsuits, people shooting at him

also probably a lot of soiled depends

the betting whale is doing it for exactly the reason everyone assumed

>"I have absolutely no political agenda"
>On the Zoom call, he alleged that Democrat-aligned media organizations were laying the groundwork for social unrest by stoking expectations of a close race, instead of the Trump blowout that he anticipates. https://t.co/MdyUCSGMJJ

— Quantіan (@quantian1) November 1, 2024

This is pretty funny; tier-2 right-wing hack Hugh Hewitt flipped out during a Washington Post live chat and stormed off the set after host Jonathan Capehart pointed out that he is, in fact, a lying right-wing hack who will say fucking anything if it benefits Trump and/or the Republican Party.

and then quit as a Post columnist.

Aw, gee, that's too bad. Don't let the door hit you in the ass, Hugh.

xp finally the wsj prints news

this seems unwise but then im not someone who has millions to slosh around

But… if you had a large DJT options position, say in the October 31 expiry with cheaper pre-election vol, then you could Hwang that with big a Polymarket long. You’d hedge by dumping DJT on the last day or two, lock in your gains, and ride out the PM long.

— Quantіan (@quantian1) November 1, 2024

and then quit as a Post columnist.

If he took Thiessen with him, I would be content. (Will clearly is immovable.)

Hughie Hewitt knew he blew it

Roffle. Oh Jeff B., all that effort and hedging and this is what happens:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tnlhrgmbce34nvpyti46miej/bafkreibizw7lu3u663xlb3xh5ivn7lpdcaxdwuqoqmdc33y5bbvetpwkhe@jpeg

This gun's for hire
Even if we're endorsing in the dark

nobody that thinks they're winning does this etc

You'd also think you wouldn't break into the DNC's office if you were going to win 49 states but there you go.

has trump ever brought up in public that his mother was an immigrant? you'd think that would be a good rally line. "i love immigrants my mother was an immigrant!" english was her 2nd language even. and she was a maid when she came here!

Anyway, WP poll has PA 48 Harris/ 47 Trump

(xp) They're very white in the Western Isles though. Not a lot of sunny days.

This MSNBC segment — an interview with Black men in Georgia who are voting Harris specifically because of abortion and her focus on maternal health — is rough. Some of these guys' wives died in childbirth, others are scared that they might.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-KM0GWtpQw

Hwang that thang

Getting shot at by a supporter really broke whatever there was left of his brain.

― Charlie Hair (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, 1 November 2024 bookmarkflaglink

Never heard anymore about that guy and what might have been his reasons...

has trump ever brought up in public that his mother was an immigrant? you'd think that would be a good rally line. "i love immigrants my mother was an immigrant!" english was her 2nd language even. and she was a maid when she came here!

But that would mean taking the focus off of him, something he is incapable of.

its wild to think but Trump probably could've easily won 2020 and installed himself as dictator for life if he was capable of moderating his message just a little

like if he had taken any leadership at all during COVID instead of fussing over numbers and talking about bleach while actively trying to get people in blue states killed, it would've been a walk

Yep. But that would have required him to be an entirely different person.

There’s a pathology with guys like this, which makes them in capable of moderating anything. That lack of empathy means they can never extend anything remotely resembling and olive branch and believe me I think that if a humbled Trump showed up in 2024 with a message of change, he would have this in the bag. But like tipsy said that is not who he is.

*incapable
and = an

yeah sort of a trump 22 he never wouldve gotten elected in the first place if he was more normal but he wouldve gotten reelected

ya its almost as if his entire existence is owed to fluke events like the Comey letter

I don't generally like Tom Scocca's writing; he seems like kind of a dick, in the Michael Moore-ish "I wish this guy wasn't on my side" sense. But this piece is good.

I don't think Kamala Harris has blown the election. I have no idea if she's going to win or not; I just don't see how, if Donald Trump becomes president again, there's any real way to blame the Democratic nominee.

Ever since 2016, people have comforted themselves with the stories that Hillary Clinton was a singularly unlikeable candidate or that her campaign didn't take Wisconsin seriously—that she lost to Donald Trump because she fundamentally didn't deserve to win. A less blindered, more righteous candidate would have been able to bend history just a few fractions of a degree away from the track toward disaster.

Maybe. Sure, why not. But there's no convincing story this time around that Harris is making some terrible, obvious, avoidable mistake. She quickly and decisively seized the controls of the tailspinning Joe Biden candidacy and accelerated the Democratic presidential campaign into the stratosphere. She's battling in the battlegrounds, swarming the ground game, maintaining steely message discipline, and obliterating Trump in fundraising. She picked Tim Walz when the clammy centrist ghouls were demanding Josh Shapiro. Tens of thousands of people are turning out to hear her.

...

The alternative is unthinkable, yet somehow plausible. All the reporting says that the Donald Trump campaign is a logistical disaster. He looted the Republican National Committee to pay his own legal fees; he has hardly any staff; his voter turnout operation appears to be a bumbling human-trafficking scheme outsourced to the visibly unraveling Elon Musk. As a candidate, Trump is sagging and rambling, canceling events or falling mysteriously silent onstage or boring his own audiences into leaving. And the polls say he's within a coin toss of winning.

Some people, in some places, do have sincere and pragmatic reasons to elect Donald Trump. If your job involves despoiling the environment—as many American jobs do—your paycheck will likely be more secure under Trump, even if you might have to worry more about flash flooding or cancer. Prison guards and cops should find more opportunities if Trump becomes president again, and with more room for kinetic action and self-expression at work.

None of that, though, adds up to the tens of millions of people whom the pollsters expect to see voting for Trump. Unemployment is historically low, gas prices are down and dropping more, the stock market is at all-time highs, and the economic coverage and the economic polling and the economic coverage of the economic polling has been about nothing but the public's dread of inflation. Large segments of the country say they believe that crime is rampant, rather than low and dropping, and that cities are war zones, and that migrants are crowding out citizens, and that the Biden–Harris administration attacked the inland South with a hurricane, or at least abandoned the region to drown, or definitely did something wrong there. Musk has turned Twitter into a maelstrom of race panic and warnings about voter fraud, the voice of a billionaire cabal who somehow believe that if they smash everything, they'll come out even further ahead than they are now.

When I voted in 2016, I remember the space for Trump drawing my eye with the same perverse, fascinating power as a cop's holstered gun on the subway. You could just reach out—you wouldn't, you would never—but a person could. It was right there. And then enough people in enough places did it. I don't remember what I thought in 2020 at all. In 2024, though, even after I'd bubbled in Harris–Walz, I kept staring at the empty Trump–Vance, not quite believing it was even on the page, an open sore that stubbornly hadn't healed.

Interesting fact: Trump's mother was beaten nearly to death by a mugger when she was a year older than Trump is now.

i like tom s. as a writer but that piece seems pretty dumb

Contemporaneous mugging story:

https://www.upi.com/amp/Archives/1991/10/31/Trumps-mother-mugged/4895688885200/