U.S. Politics, October 2024 -- “They smear because they fear”

Vance, with a few exceptions, was just sanewashing himself and Trump

Yes, TW should have said more about economy and border (undocumented crossings down 30% in last few months), but crazy things said are in news all the time. He was maybe disconcerted by JD mirroring his nice guy thing for a change (although, seems like Pete B. would have done some of that in debate rehearsals).

Although Vance's refusal to acknowledge Trump lost the 2020 election did damage his slick presentation, but that was way at the end of the debate

I was a little disappointed with Walz’s delivery but I don’t think the structure of this debate served the viewer particularly well. The main take-away from this debate was Vance refusing to say Biden won the 2020 election.

With Trump, despite his familiar approach, I'm less and less sure of how much he means what he says, beyond the moment, anyway, but "sanewashing," yeah!!

And Walz kept pressing him about the state's rights approach to reproductive rights, naming women who had suffered and sometimes died, having to travel far for care---also naming Texas has having higher infant mortality rates than a lot of countries---vs. Minnesota protection, correcting Vance's lies about that too.

Walz was prob at his strongest on that.

so far the clip that seems to be getting the most play is Vance saying "you guys said you weren't gonna fact check" which given Vance's debate club vibe is a tremendously idiotic thing to say

Re abortion and fertility issues Vance actually said he felt bad about those people who died, and Walz needed to demand a minute to spell out better that those women died because of who Trump put on the Supreme Court and Vance feeling bad now doesn't matter . But for some reason the Harris campaign strategy for Walz was just to disagree politely

Walz largely failed to spell out all the crazy things Trump and Vance have said, and he failed to defend the current state of the economy and the border. Walz just tried to be a nice guy

The correct choice, in a vibes-based election that will be decided by morons. I didn't watch, but from what I'm reading, Vance's two big moments were "You said you weren't going to fact-check!" and refusing to say Trump lost in 2020.

I really can't watch these anymore, I guess. Tuned in 5 minutes before it started, felt my entire body swell with anxiety, watched Walz stumble in the opening question, and then turned it off.

Hopefully there's already Tiktoks and reels of Vance saying You said you weren't going to fact-check!" and refusing to say Trump lost in 2020

that opening question was bullshit, not only opening with a giant political landmine but phrasing it in such a way that doesn't even leave "let's try to negotiate peace" as an option. give them a couple softballs so they get comfortable first!

I think that the vice presidential debate really doesn't matter at all in the end, most people are not watching it and nobody bases their opinion on it

I think you're right. Part of what gets me agitated is knowing that the media puts a big spotlight on debates as one of the central frames through which to assess the presidential race. It's an opportunity for narratives to take hold that are distorted and disconnected from the actual stakes of the election.

I think I used to be like, well, Democrats are right about stuff, so they just need to make their case in a debate, and people will be persuaded. Now I don't trust that any of that will actually happen because of media incentives and information warfare, so events like this just feel super-fraught to me.

My personal take is that what most politically-minded people want from a VP debate is to see 'their guy' vanquish 'the other guy' so they can feel good about it. Whereas, politically detached people mainly want to be reassured that both VPs seem like they could step into the office if necessary, but they have no clear criteria for figuring that out except their poorly informed sense of what a president does.

the main takeaway of this for me is it really demonstrates that Vance was probably one of the worst possible choices for Trump's running mate, he's kind of the anti-Trump in a lot of ways. I don't think it works because Trump singlehandedly set the tone of this election as being cutthroat and insane. he's calling Kamala mentally handicapped, accusing her of murder, and is promising nuclear hellfire should she win.

in contrast Vance is trying to make the campaign seem calm and collected and I think he made a point to be nice to Walz which doesn't jive at all with what Trump was doing during his debates, which obviously everyone who watched this also saw. Vance came off like the exact sort of swamp creature that Trump supporters hate. he's not gonna be a dealbreaker for most of them but I highly doubt the Trump freaks like him at all.

I think that the vice presidential debate really doesn't matter at all in the end, most people are not watching it and nobody bases their opinion on it

― Dan S, Tuesday, October 1, 2024 11:56 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

didn't watch it, but if it sounds like a boring draw it'll fizzle out quickly and hopefully get trump to be an idiot and debate again.

VP debates should be wargaming scenarios of how their candidate dies and the steps they’d take to secure their authority and rally ‘Murrica.

“Mr. Vance, President Trump shanks a drive on the 16th hole and has an aneurysm while screaming at his caddy. What are your first steps?”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7rUS-tMIbk

Following the VP debate, Tim Walz went from well liked to beloved. JD Vance went from loathed to still not well liked. pic.twitter.com/UacjSCx90Q

— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) October 2, 2024

Yeah, I got home from karaoke and started grading papers so I didn't watch the debate, but flipping through the morning teevee shows I was surprised to learn Walz's approval rating went up?

I think you're right. Part of what gets me agitated is knowing that the media puts a big spotlight on debates as one of the central frames through which to assess the presidential race. It's an opportunity for narratives to take hold that are distorted and disconnected from the actual stakes of the election.

I think I used to be like, well, Democrats are right about stuff, so they just need to make their case in a debate, and people will be persuaded. Now I don't trust that any of that will actually happen because of media incentives and information warfare, so events like this just feel super-fraught to me.

― jaymc, Wednesday, October 2, 2024 5:13 AM (eight hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is so well said, and speaks to larger issues in our politics. (Although there's plenty of wiggle room in "Democrats are right about stuff"--> I think they are far more right about stuff than Republicans, but yeah this is well said.)

Like I don't think it's just republicans are a threat to our democracy, but it's the media and their framing of things that's really fucking us

I would have thought Walz could’ve done more pushback on Vance’s sanewashing attempts because the two or three times he managed to do that, he really landed.

Was this true?

Gotta admit JD's ability to code switch from a sociopathic ass who is ambivalent to human suffering on MAGA bro podcasts to a guy who credibly seems like he doesn't want other people to die on the debate stage is a useful political skill that he has deployed with effect

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) October 2, 2024

The use of “code switch” here is… I don’t know how I feel about it, but it is certainly something.

more like chode switch

Curious if Trump is going to yell at him for being too nice.

https://theonion.com/screaming-trump-takes-out-frustrations-on-person-he-ass-1851617123rev1723143413843/

on-person-he-ass

Nothing means anything but all the focus groups and polls I've seen mentioned this morning give Walz a strong edge in the debate. Because people react more to just a general sense of the person than any specific answers, probably, plus also punting on the 2020 election and Jan. 6 was bad for Vance.

Politico snap poll of debate:

Walz Wins Independents 58-42 Over Vancehttps://t.co/8tBsT6sNeu pic.twitter.com/WRCm64rK7S

— James Singer (@Jemsinger) October 2, 2024

But now, of course, we can stop pretending anyone cares about VP debates.

I can vote two weeks from today, looking forward to this phase of things being over before we descend into whatever fresh hell awaits.

If ever there were a person you would rather have a beer with, it's Walz.

Curious if Trump is going to yell at him for being too nice.

― Bedrich Smetana's Ma Wife (Boring, Maryland), Wednesday, October 2, 2024 9:22 AM (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

trump was ecstatic

I don’t think Walz needed to go into the debate to “beat” Vance. The ticket is going after a shrinking pool of undecided voters who likely prize things like being “reasonable” and “decent” and “able to work with the other side.”

The fact that this debate cemented his nice guy image is probably a benefit.

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:kyssxk455wyqgeahpgqe4vqu/bafkreicfl6r4trqduh4uhuz5ixxfuryv2yqoxwg4hdtv3a4isyu2jnqqs4@jpeg

i think walz is a good politician but after watching this debate i kinda hope he doesn't have presidential aspirations. he's good enough for vp but would be a serious swag deficit for prez imho

Those Reconsidering numbers are pretty high! Especially on the Harris side, but people are unpredictable

I don’t think Walz needed to go into the debate to “beat” Vance. The ticket is going after a shrinking pool of undecided voters who likely prize things like being “reasonable” and “decent” and “able to work with the other side.”

as a short term strategy this makes sense. but having the vp of the other party say "i agree with you" half a dozen times risks lending unearned legitimacy to the pivot to a pro-family pro-worker populist-branded party that vance is trying to pull off. i wish walz had said "i agree with what you're saying right now, but the republican party are the party of rich plutocrat snakes and in power will do nothing but tax cuts on the rich"

Al Gore pulled that shit with Bush.

My JD Vance report card from this evening's debate:

Style: D
Substance: F
Overall: A+

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) October 2, 2024

X-post - yes to Flopson’s take

A good Washington Post piece about the Republican nominee's broken brain.

Signs reading SCHOOL CHOICE, EDUCATION FREEDOM NOW and LET PARENTS DECIDE decorated a small auditorium, and a panel of speakers preceding the former president focused on using public funds to let families choose between public and private, especially religious, schools. Trump read from a binder containing a prepared speech on the subject, and he switched abruptly between the text and a jumble of other topics.

“We can be nice and we can be politically incorrect, but the only thing they’re going to do there is cheat on elections, and we just can’t let this happen,” he said at one point. Without warning, he continued: “The city of Milwaukee is the home of first and oldest choice program.”
He spoke of “a million Rambos.” “Turnarounds” and “gotaways” and “dead-head spending.” He mixed up Iran with North Korea and strained to pronounce United Arab Emirates. He marveled at Hurricane Helene coming so late in the storm season, which typically runs through November. He falsely claimed government agencies can’t name the U.S. population, and he compared the conflict between Israel and Iran to “two kids fighting in the schoolyard.”

Trump, 78, often speaks in a digressive, extemporaneous style that thrills his fans at large-scale rallies. But Tuesday’s event, in front of almost entirely reporters, was especially scattered and hard to follow. Polls show voters’ concerns about Trump’s age and fitness have increased since President Joe Biden, 81, withdrew and was replaced as the Democratic nominee by Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump spoke slowly and appeared tired. It was his second stop of the day, and he has picked up the pace of campaigning in recent weeks.

“I think I’m booked every single day for 33 days,” he said at the end of the news conference, incorrectly citing the number of days until the election, which is 35 days. “I’ve worked for 17 or 18 days when you say in a row, and I’m working even when I’m not working.”

...

Much of what Trump said here he has said before. He repeated false claims about a U.S. government app directing cartels where to drop off smuggled migrants; in fact the app lets migrants request appointments for legal processing. He falsely accused the Biden administration of admitting 13,000 convicted murderers — a number that in fact reflects several decades of migration and includes people in federal or state custody.

He also repeatedly praised predominantly White countries such as Denmark, Norway and Sweden while emphatically warning against immigrants from Congo in Africa. And he again said migrants crossing the U.S. southern border were taking “Black and Hispanic jobs,” a characterization that many Americans found offensive and economists said was false.

...

Several times Trump mixed up his words or spoke in vague terms. He praised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as a “tough guy” when he appeared to mean “strongman.” He complained that an interviewer with “60 Minutes” “challenged me on the computer” — meaning the interviewer argued with him in 2020 about the provenance of Hunter Biden’s laptop. He referred to Afghan attacks on coalition forces, known in NATO as “green on blue,” as “blue on brown and brown on blue.”

Asked whether as president he should have retaliated more forcefully to Iran’s missile strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq in 2020, Trump responded as he did at the time, by denying the severity of the more than 100 injuries, including traumatic brain injury. “They had a headache,” he said.

Other comments were harder to parse.

“Kamala and the radical left Democratic Party want to keep Black and Hispanic children trapped in family government,” he said.

“Every single thing that we’re doing is based on structure and common sense. I was looking at the various states, and I think 35 states could be the equivalent of Norway and Denmark.”

Likely voters were also split 50/50 in a Politico/Focaldata snap poll. However, the Politico poll showed Walz with a sixteen point lead among independent voters: 58 percent said the Minnesota governor won the debate versus 42 percent who sided with Vance.

flopson otm. "i agree with you, jd" -- like what the fuck are you talking about dude. fuck this piece of shit loser scab forever, is what i think you meant to say. seriously disappointing and also totally surreal in the context of vance denying the election and suddenly we're going back to "let's find a way to compromise with our republican colleagues"? hell no

in terms of incentives both candidates were aligned--just seem normal, don't rock the boat, don't need to win super hard just don't lose in a big newsworthy way. walz didn't try to bait vance by calling him weird, which i think was smart tbh. but he should've held the ideological line more firmly

I agree we need more Dem politicians who are willing to call Rs psycho freaks to their faces and scoff at the idea of working with those trying to burn down the country but Walz isn’t that guy

the second headline on the little clearchannel tv in my office building elevator this morning: "Vance struggles on Jan 6 in VP debate". (the top headline is today's weather.)

what does Reconsidering mean in that poll? for the 8% under Kamala, that 8% were considering voting for her and now are considering not voting forh er? the opposite? both?