US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

(xp about the NYT poll) I know you guys love to hate Nate Silver but please at least give him this, he has spent more than a decade trying to hammer home to people the fact that the more polls you take, the wider the spread of outcomes you're gonna see, just stick it in the average and get on with your life

dont know who hes talking about but those most annoying critics are prob people who call him on his shit and are often right no xp

yes they are. my point is he's right here. he's the worst person who just made a great point.

getting confused in my own orobos of worst people: social media in 2024

I know Nate has beef with David Roberts. I think he's probably talking about people like him, Brian Beutler, Parker Malloy, Dan Froomkin, etc.

layers xp

yep.

but it's worth repeating that the media is voluntarily sitting on a trove of internal comms from the trump campaign.

(they're also failing to follow up on the $10m egyptian bribe thing.)

youd think the hackers could just send the hacked docs to some less scrupulous people

October and its surprises are still a week away

I take the Siena polls seriously methodologically, but I also think it's silly to think there's been a 10-point shift in Arizona in a month. So, one of their two Arizona polls is wrong, or they both are, but they're not both right.

So here's a thing that's pissing me off — journalists reporting that Harris's lead over Trump in current polling is "within the margin of error," but when Trump was leading Harris *by a smaller number*, they never clarified that those numbers were within that same margin of error. Get fucked.

So, one of their two Arizona polls is wrong, or they both are, but they're not both right.

They're both right, and there hasn't been a 10-point shift in Arizona in a month.

xp

it's annoying but in part it comes down to Harris needing a bigger national lead overall to win than Trump does

Ryan Cooper has been begging the hackers to give him the documents.

I think the behavior with the Trump hack is actually more consistent with the press’ more recent handling of the Hunter Biden laptop case.

yeah if you wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt they learned from their mishandling of the hillary leak

counterpoint if the stuff is real then give it a look why not what harm could an article or two do

Although in all three cases (Clinton, Biden, and Trump) the docs were stolen not leaked, fucking Roger Stone was just smart enough to advise the Russians to send them to Wikileaks so that they would be “public” and that creep would fucking publish anything no questions asked.

Looks like that play for NE-2 is a nonstarter, at least for this election.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/09/23/state-sen-mike-mcdonnell-deflates-gop-hopes-for-nebraska-winner-take-all-in-2024/

I don't really have an issue with it over the long term, but trying to push it a month before the election is extremely shady.

the nebraska rep's statement is worth reading

Big news: Mike McDonnell, a state senator in Nebraska who is the key holdout on the GOP effort to change electoral vote rules, just issued a statement today saying it's too late & he doesn't support a change.

It's hard to see it pass without McDonnell.https://t.co/Y84Wsy2odD pic.twitter.com/di4OCWtZJt

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 23, 2024

put it to the people in the form of a constitutional amendment. hard to argue with that

would be better if more states chopped up their electoral votes but not as good as just giving them all to the national popular vote winner

definitely pretty shady to do it at a time when it's too late for Maine to reciprocate

Nebraska has a vicious streak of reasonableness, this doesn't surprise me

Overall I think splitting electoral votes by congressional district would be bad because some states are worse about gerrymandering than others, so it would give a huge partisan advantage in heavily gerrymandered states and a disincentive to the kind of party-neutral districting that some states have adopted. (e.g., Republicans could pick up more votes in California than Democrats would in Texas.)

We just need a national vote, one way or another.

Explaining the Nebraska electoral vote twaddle to a European is like a Trumper explaining Haitian immigrant eating habits to normal people.

WTF is this asshole up to?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asked the Supreme Court for an emergency intervention to restore his name on New York’s presidential ballot.

Lower courts excluded the former independent candidate from the ballot after finding he falsely claimed residency in the state because his Katonah, N.Y., address was not his fixed and permanent residency.

Nebraska has a vicious streak of reasonableness, this doesn't surprise me

I don't know how to explain this but I feel like it comes down to the unicameral legislature

Like, maybe if there's not another house you can blame the worst offenses on there's more sense of responsibility to not be a completely corrupt shit

xp Trump's probably making RFKjr do it because his Long Island rally convinced him New York is in play or something.

RFK wanted to stay on the non-swing state ballots to see if he could get 5% of the national vote. Insane to think a candidate who dropped out could still pull that many votes, but that's who were dealing with.

he just wants to make sure Nuzzi can vote for him

the other possibility, which doesn't conflict with the 5% thing, is that he sued to get off the NC ballot to help Trump and he's suing to get on the NY ballot to help Trump

Really going for the anti-bear, anti-whale vote

I am glad the wapo and NYT are finally writing about the gender apartheid in Afghanistan

It’s getting bad

lol

NEW: Rep Anthony D'Esposito had an affair — and put his lover on his congressional payroll, according to three people familiar w/the relationship + the mistress's ex-husband.

It was one of a pair of hires that may violate House ethics rules. More here >>https://t.co/4YAVQJDLJi

— Nicholas Fandos (@npfandos) September 23, 2024

having both your fiancée’s daughter and your mistress in the same office? that water cooler gossip must have been wild

Did he think he was in the French government?

Gutsy stuff

Ex-nypd pols have had an interesting year.

Let’s check in on another one.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-rudy-giuliani-new-york-bankruptcy-court-financial-investigation-1956821

Sportscaster and former MSNBC star Keith Olbermann admitted he also dated Olivia Nuzzi—the New York magazine political columnist currently on leave due to an undisclosed relationship with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.https://t.co/yKDu4X2eS9

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) September 24, 2024

someone please make the vince mcmahon meme: keith olbermann…Ryan Lizza…ROBERT F KENNEDY JR

In the future, we will all date Olivia Nuzzi for 15 minutes

that article notes that Olbermann also dated Kyrsten Sinema??

Laura Ingraham too

i thought olbermann was with katy tur?

This guy gets around.

Katy Tur was a long time ago. They don’t speak any more. He’s enemies with all of his exes.

Gigololbermann

Opinion | No, I don't like Trump's call to suspend the Constitution. But Harris's budget numbers don't add up.

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) September 23, 2024