US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

ha is he really

yeah dems dem leaning media have really been banging the drum re project 2025

Once a few celebrities latched onto it - one in particular, her name escapes me, not someone I’m super aware of, alas - it really took off. People KNOW now.

ha no I meant, is Tim Walz riffing on carburetors

During the debate, search queries about Project 2025 surged by approximately 900% compared to the period before the debate. Trending searches included “Project 2025 website,” “Project 2025 key points,” “Project 2025 summary,” and “What is Project 2025.” These queries trended in several states, with the highest activity coming from swing state Pennsylvania as well as Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2024/september/abortion--immigration--and-project-2025-drove-online-topic-searc.html

yeah he said a clean air filter is a sign of a pure soul or something xp

Capitalism is doing well now, but I don't think it can keep up with Taylor's pace of output.

Like, when even was Capitalism's last charting single?

Project 2025 needs to drop an EP stat.

"ha no I meant, is Tim Walz riffing on carburetors"

i posted the ad on here. its good!

think hes been doing car maintenance videos for a while

Tim Walz, can you check under my hood

https://i.imgur.com/vWjBVoK.jpeg

seems like the competent dem playbook is working this time around, helps that the gop is messier than ever i guess

Some really important takeaways in this NBC poll where Harris leads by 5 points:
1. Border and immigration have fallen 8 points as important issue down to 14%
2. Trump advantage on Border has fallen 14 points to +21, it used to be +35
3. Trump advantage on economy has fallen 13…

— Matt A. Barreto 🇵🇪 ⚽️ (@realMABarreto) September 22, 2024

since someone posted nazi pillow again i'll just post this again for people who missed it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N-B0_OKkeg

the 2025 segues in there remind me when YouTube videos switch to discussing their mindfulness app or VPN sponsors, I love it

republicans are on record as saying they want to deport immigrants regardless of status even want to kick naturalized citizens out, seems like something dems could be hitting pretty hard, maybe they already are via channels that are more aimed at immigrants than the stuff i see idk

This is consistent with Latino polling where her largest advantage is protecting immigrant rights and suggests there is an opportunity to contrast with the awful, racist, hateful stuff Trump/Miller/Vance are saying about immigrants. This reminds me of 2018 when Democrats stood up…

— Matt A. Barreto 🇵🇪 ⚽️ (@realMABarreto) September 22, 2024

jesus christ

JD Vance has suggested that American support for NATO should be predicated on the European Union not regulating Elon Musk and his X social media platform, formerly known as Twitter.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-elon-musk-x-twitter-donald-trump-b2614525.html

On the horserace: Harris led Trump 56-38 (+18) in late Aug, same as she did earlier in the month. But there was some variation in key states. Earlier, she’d been 4 pts shy of Biden ‘20 support in PA, 5 pts off in NV. In the most recent poll, she is in striking distance in both. pic.twitter.com/FlXHNMhqTS

— Carlos Odio (@carlosodio) September 18, 2024

I don't know what kind of impact this kind of stuff has, but nice to see.

Today in North Carolina! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ffOpI5ky9i

— Alex Cole (@acnewsitics) September 21, 2024

Once a few celebrities latched onto it - one in particular, her name escapes me, not someone I’m super aware of, alas - it really took off.

Taraji P. Henson iirc

does jd vance…. know what the eu is?

He knows it's pronounced ewwwww

CBS YouGov poll: 61% of Americans oppose weapons aid to Israel’s assault in Gaza. 77% of Democrats and 63% of self-identifying moderates reject US weapons aid to Israel.

77% of under 30 oppose weapons aid to Israel, 75% of Black Americans, 66% of women. pic.twitter.com/NlagDOm93A

— Waleed Shahid 🪬 (@_waleedshahid) September 22, 2024

ah well nevertheless

The senator is right, so imagine how many people would reject us weapons aid if his party vocally advocated for the correct policy

I read polls. I respect pollsters. But this is a reminder that people prioritize what leaders emphasize. Politicians and activists can and should respond to polling data but they also can move numbers by persuading people. P2025 would’ve produced blank stares just months ago. https://t.co/InQRjgZbU1

— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) September 22, 2024

It’s such an easy layup for them. This is tinfoil hatted but I wonder if they fear an October surprise from Mossad or a full blown invasion of Lebanon or something if they criticize Israel.

i think theyre def afraid of israel/the israel lobby but also they just really believe in israel as one of our very closest allies, that stuff runs deep in the foreign policy establishment and washington in general

this becoming an issue at all is prob pretty baffling to them, not something they ever thought theyd have to deal with

its just not that big an issue for most voters and not a big talking point for candidates. and here's why.

"Nearly four in ten (39%) of US adults say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses, according to a new CNN poll. That’s up from 28% who expressed those concerns in December 2021, and it’s similar to the numbers seen during the Great Recession (37%)."

I have no evidence for this belief, but here it is: if a mass of Americans felt like they were doing “well” and not terrified about who might be about to lead their country, they’d be more invested in what’s happening elsewhere.

pretty wild that the republican tactic has been to gin up support by trumpeting these completely imaginary reactionary things about children getting indoctrinated in public schools, forcing gender-affirming surgeries, etc while normal people are getting increasingly tired of this shtick

and the democrats are like “here’s your actual plan you published” and it’s insane ghoul stuff

I have no evidence for this belief, but here it is: if a mass of Americans felt like they were doing “well” and not terrified about who might be about to lead their country, they’d be more invested in what’s happening elsewhere.

I disagree. America is a fucking huge country that for most of its history has been protected by the presence of two oceans from invasion and from the consequences of its actions. Our general isolationism — "Fight Germany? Why? Let the Europeans handle it"; "Fucking Germany? Again? I thought we took care of that. Seriously, let the Europeans handle it" — makes perfect sense. The only reasons any Americans at all give a fuck about what happens in other countries are a) they are recent arrivals and/or have family there, or b) they have it thrust in their face by the media/the internet. Having to care what happens beyond our borders is, for most people, an unfortunate consequence of globalism. And if thinking about what happens in other countries requires us to question our assumptions or lessons learned in childhood, you can fucking forget about it.

Taylor Swift at +6 favorability is about her lowest ever. I mean who knows if she cares. But it's just worth mentioning she takes an actual measurable hit to her popularity by making an endorsement and she did it anyway.

good piece from Timothy Snyder today about what the Springfield story says about Trump/Vance political theory (not a long read)

https://substack.com/@snyder/p-149244763

i was with him until the beginning of the third sentence

Total bias not polling Kid Rock’s favorability

its just not that big an issue for most voters and not a big talking point for candidates. and here's why.

"Nearly four in ten (39%) of US adults say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses, according to a new CNN poll. That’s up from 28% who expressed those concerns in December 2021, and it’s similar to the numbers seen during the Great Recession (37%)."

― scott seward, Sunday, September 22, 2024 12:48 PM (forty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I have no evidence for this belief, but here it is: if a mass of Americans felt like they were doing “well” and not terrified about who might be about to lead their country, they’d be more invested in what’s happening elsewhere.

― Marten Broadcloak, mild-mannered GOP congressman (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, September 22, 2024 1:01 PM (thirty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i do think you guys are just telling yrself stories here fwiw, dems failure to do more than barely sometimes defeat a psychotic republican party isnt based on nothing, the number of things that people think dont really matter well they do add up

Everybody only knows what's happened before. What's happened before over and over is that people don't give a shit about foreign policy in a statistically meaningful way when it comes to elections. Not that they don't care! That data is pretty strong that people do have opinions about Israel and Gaza. Those opinions are just kinda low on the totem pole when it comes to priorities, and they're likely not very strongly held — i.e., they could subject to change and persuasion by a barrage of "Kamala is pro-terrorist" messaging from the right if she gave them the opening to do it. Obviously her campaign's calculus is that they'd rather lose the small number of voters for whom Gaza is a deal-breaking issue than open her up to those kinds of attacks. I don't know if they're right or not, you'd have to run two different campaigns to find out how it worked out. But they're not basing it on nothing. It's politically safer to look generically "strong" on defense without staking out too many specific positions on global affairs.

Fair!

Xpost

🙏🙏

What's happened before over and over is that people don't give a shit about foreign policy in a statistically meaningful way when it comes to elections.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Sunday, September 22, 2024 1:51 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is the conventional wisdom and its prob on some level true, but i would argue thats level is the short term slice and dice polling outlook, and even then a big reason for it is that the democrats and republicans are mostly indistinguishable on foreign policy, of course "no one votes on foreign policy" when both parties agree and neither make an issue out of anything, even in situations where their voters strongly favor changing course like with supporting genocide

but does foreign policy have an impact on how the parties are viewed that deeply affects their electoral outcomes, when there are huge protests on eve of the iraq war and then the dems all line up to vote for it might some people think that their elected representatives arent worth shit, hillary did end up seeing how that played out

It's definitely possible. It's just, this is a safe political strategy that will remain conventional wisdom until it's upended. If Harris lose and there's reason to think that loss is partly attributable to her stance on Gaza, future candidates might take note. There are risks in both directions, so the natural thing to do is take what appears based on past experience to be the less risky route. I mean, another thing that could upend the conventional wisdom would be to have a candidate willing to take a potentially risky position because they feel strongly enough about an issue to do so. If they did that and won — as I think Harris could do here, if she felt strongly enough about it — then that would also be a future model. But we don't have a candidate who feels that way about it and is willing to be risky on it.

with the numbers on cutting aide to israel being so strong, and without any leadership from the dems on the issue, imho its pretty clear that the safe thing to do would be support that policy, i dont think they want to tho its just so far out of the mainstream for them pure hippy shit

no one votes on foreign policy & if we deviate from foreign policy convention at all something terrible might happen is an odd pairing

I agree. So at a basic level you have to assume the messsge she’s sending is also the one she wants to send.

message

yup

Who could ever have predicted that Charlie Kirk and Elon Musk would be bad at GOTV?

Republicans in swing states say they see scant signs of groups door-knocking for Trump

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Republican activists in swing states say they have seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump, raising concerns about the party’s presidential nominee relying on outside groups for an important part of his campaign operations.

Trump and the Republican National Committee he controls opted to share get-out-the-vote duties in key parts of the most competitive states this year with groups such as America PAC, the organization supported by billionaire Elon Musk.

It is difficult to demonstrate that something is not happening. But with fewer than 50 days until the Nov. 5 election, dozens of Republican officials, activists and operatives in Michigan, North Carolina and other battleground states say they have rarely or never witnessed the group’s canvassers. In Arizona and Nevada, the Musk-backed political action committee replaced its door-knocking company just this past week.

“I haven’t seen anybody,” said Nate Wilkowski, field director for the Republican Party in vote-rich Oakland County, Michigan, which includes crucial Detroit suburbs. He was speaking specifically of America PAC. “Nobody’s given me a heads-up that they’re around in Oakland County areas.”

i think, in general, talking about war is never good for an american candidate. people don't want to think about it. the u.s. was in Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years and no politicans ever wanted to talk about it. i don't think i've EVER heard Kamala talk about Ukraine in a speech! its a bummer to people. which is why you get all the vague/general strong military blah blah talk. she uses the word "lethal" which surprised people. trump is just as vague. he's a negative. his voters like his isolationist strongman thing. not getting into stupid wars. people here are crazy violent at times but they don't want to go anywhere to fight. no wifi. its all abstract to americans. very few people here have ANY idea what is happening around the world. millions of people here didn't know kamala harris's NAME two months ago let alone how to pronounce it! and the government here knows that the proxy war thing is the way to go for them. they can't BELIEVE their good fortune when it comes to ukraine. they get to weaken russia's military for YEARS? and all it costs them is some rockets and some chump change? its like christmas every day.
at tim walz's PA rally yesterday? whenever a gaza protester got loud you know what the crowd did? started screaming USA! USA! USA!

you can look at the poll its just a little bit upthread

i'm not talking about polls. i'm saying its never a good idea for political candidates here to bring up war in a speech/rally/etc. and that's why kamala harris is never going to say any more than she has already said a million times. "we need a ceasefire right now and we need to bring the hostages home and me and joe biden have been working around the clock...blah blah blah."