US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

or considering that literally nothing about what went terribly for Trump in that debate had to do with how prepared either were for the questions

It’s not a pop quiz!

also Trump said that he won the debate bigly. so what's the problem?

Trump is a big problem. Yuge.

he destroyed kamala in the debate but she cheated and abc should be put in prison. makes no sense. he makes no sense. where is his sense?

part of it is that, right now, the polls are at something like +3 +/- MOE. If the MOE is at the limits in favor of harris, we get into blowout territory. If they are the limits in favor of trump we get a 2016 type result.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, September 17, 2024 3:06 PM (three hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

one comforting thought is that polling methodology has changed since 2020, apparently for the last two pollsters would get a number of respondants who would just yell "TRUMP!!" and hang up, in the past they wouldn't count those, but they've since realized those people probably are reliable Trump votes, so now they're counting them. apparently this is what accounts for a big portion of the polling miss in 2016 and 2020.

obviously you cant really predict which direction the polls are gonna miss in but I have to think the advantage Harris has in cash, field offices, and overall enthusiasm matters some. I mean until the vote is cast there's no one who is actually 100% certain to vote. it does seem like people are way more motivated to get this guy out of the picture than they are to give him 4 more years in office. even the idiots I know who are voting for him solely because they really do think tarriffs are gonna solve inflation are saying stuff like "look, it's only 4 more years, then we can be done with him". I have to think there's a chance some of these people just say, "eh, fuck it" on election day.

one comforting thought is that polling methodology has changed since 2020, apparently for the last two pollsters would get a number of respondants who would just yell "TRUMP!!" and hang up, in the past they wouldn't count those, but they've since realized those people probably are reliable Trump votes, so now they're counting them. apparently this is what accounts for a big portion of the polling miss in 2016 and 2020

this is nyt siena poll, which is an outlier in terms of trump polling well (last one had him at +2 nationally)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/01/upshot/nyt-siena-poll-2024.html

that NYT story is as maddening as the rest of that series. Abigail in particular appears to be ... an idiot?

very enraging when it’s obvious the person know they’re being disingenuous, but they don’t realize their attempt to be smart about it is insanely dumb

Some folks on Bluesky have been looking to see if they can identify the most obviously Republican "undecided voters" and two of them seem to be literal political operatives. One was an intern at the State Department during Trump's first term. The Times has a real issue with using hardcore Republicans as sources and then calling them "undecided."

They should probably interview the drop-off respondents in a diner to find out what small town America really thinks

the fact that the GOP is so into astroturfing these days makes me feel like Harris is ahead by even more than the polls show

I see various online right-wing doofuses excited that there's been a big drop in Democratic mail-in ballot applications in Pa this year from 2020 — somehow not comprehending that the 2020 surge was driven entirely by COVID. A lot of those people are still voting this year, just not by mail.

I think we have Donna Brazile and Hilary to thank for the questions in advance allegations

The dumbest part is that anyone with half a brain could have anticipated most of the questions, it's not like they were pulling out gotcha questions about soybean subsidies

Good morning!

I see various online right-wing doofuses excited that there's been a big drop in Democratic mail-in ballot applications in Pa this year from 2020 — somehow not comprehending that the 2020 surge was driven entirely by COVID. A lot of those people are still voting this year, just not by mail.

pic.twitter.com/f68aRQ1Bxm

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) September 18, 2024

Is it ghoulish to point out that a lot of the 2020 GOP cohort succumbed to Covid and pandemic-adjacent conditions if my own mom was one of them?

I looked it up, and Stephens was actually calling for Biden to step down two weeks *before* the June debate -- but he wanted him replaced with Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer.

jpg, shared on bsky, from a paywalled wsj story. I want real world consequences for Vance and the rest of these fucks.
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nehvjrqlcz766irejep43jnw/bafkreif7pyea7nzwchvpfz5ui77z346vfvtetrwfbwzmd7rklm67vdw2hi@jpeg

Miss Sassy is actually the nickname for her gay son Andrew.

legit actual lol

I hope this shit follows Vance forever.

like a tough little dingleberry that he just can't unstick

Is this the lady who started this shit? Or just someone who heard Vance talking about this and started making assumptions?

that wsj story

no, this is the woman who started it:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/us/springfield-haitians-pets-facebook-rumor.html

Yikes. Suspect this is why Harris' and Dems' rhetoric on immigration is harsher than in past campaigns

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4885895-mass-deportation-immigration-poll/

concerning.

Yet half those people have never even interacted with a non-legal citizen

that's disturbing af

i listened to an interesting podcast recently about the children's book "if you give a mouse a cookie" and how it has been used to indoctrinate people to the right wing concept of reducing/eliminating/stigmatizing the social safety net.

i wonder how many americans have internalized the message that "no one deserves a handout"
seems like a lot from that poll!!

It’s because the Ds have ceded the point to the Republicans and not hit back with a strong defense of immigrants.

yup

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3FDgF5BNHWfhJxQStLtRZ0?si=42171a1c9c9f4eaf
here's the podcast, it's short

I’m more disturbed why Harris/Walz have been missing from this whole Ohio thing. Seems like a great time to defend immigrants!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/17/politics/video/springfield-false-rumors-immigrants-kamala-harris-nabj-philadelphia-digvid

Should they do a rally there like Trumps plans to do? Seems lame

It’s because the Ds have ceded the point to the Republicans and not hit back with a strong defense of immigrants.

― O 'Tis Redding (Boring, Maryland)

otm

Join the club. Same thing's been happening all over Europe for a while now.

... and we all know where it leads electorally.

There were post-mortem discussions after Florida swung to the right in 2020 and 2022 by a couple Hispanic polling companies, and they learned that "immigration" isn't the problem so much as the sense that these new arrivals -- legal and illegal -- are getting handouts or "jumping to the front of the line." Therefore, Democrats should stop assuming Hispanics care about immigration as a general question. They were turning off swing voters apparently.

Now imagine these attitudes AND the racism infecting Haitian immigrants.

Honestly, if the Dems were anything but a bunch of more quietly racist and nationalist losers, they would be pointing out that everyone here is an immigrant, and that demonizing immigrants either legal or illegal is a childish and inarguably racist way of viewing the world. But they won't do that because they're too chickenshit to stand up for what's right.

there was a lot of pro-immigrant talk at the convention.

kamala yesterday was pretty poignant about ohio in that interview. school picture day! that was pretty sad.

not to sound like, uh, the heritage foundation or something but i just don't understand how this country can be so shortsighted when it comes to undocumented immigration. how there is no long-term plan to deal with with the problem after decades of it getting worse and worse. and with future climate displacement it is truly going to be much much worse. when you see the amount of people coming from Asia alone. its a lot of people! which is why Trump is going to die on his racist/xenophobic hill. i think that's what he has decided. its his last chance to win. i doubt he'll really bring up anything else until the election. its going to be fear 24/7. he must know that it's his only shot.

Well, the bleak view would be that they’re well aware of how much worse things will get with climate displacement, and the overall right turn reflects the assumption that we will not be able to deal with it and need to prepare for ever harsher measures to keep the desperate masses out.

i mean the "funny" thing is despite all the years of xenophobic grandstanding america still does take in a ton of immigrants

Anyone interested in this topic, I encourage you to purchase and read this book for a former ilxor https://carlybethgoodman.com/ !!
Dreamland: America’s Immigration Lottery in an Age of Restriction