US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

In high school my friends dog happened to disappear around the time a lot of Latinos were working on crews to expand the road by our neighborhood. Guess where the dog went?? It’s a racist trope as old as time.

Dog just got invited to their backyard cookout and stayed

trump dropping everything and going golfing is one of his scarce relatable qualities tbh

Yeah not really

This is hilarious because, as Joshua Friedman notes on Bluesky: "New Trump pitch: Elect me, and I'll reverse the SALT (state and local tax) deduction limit I signed into law"

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qrllvid7s54k4hnwtqxwetrf/bafkreih7gnfbvwm4k5imdnxqaobaywua7mh2i6fbtzgonudmpdnypkoqpe@jpeg

(Also, wasting time in Nassau County, are we?)

the rest of his party hates that on the basis that it helps top 10% income people who reliably vote democrat (not real Americans or the 1%), so he'll get no help from them on cleanup.

And here you see the diabolical strategic genius of Donald J. Trump.

(Also, wasting time in Nassau County, are we?)

― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, September 17, 2024 2:29 PM (sixteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

https://bsky.app/profile/mtsw.bsky.social/post/3l4eniiziin2o

He should be arrested for this plot before he can attempt it!

bro

Yeah not sure that’s why he’s there, or why Brianna there. Anytime he brings on a candidate for Congress he never actually talks about the person or let them get a word in edgewise. Also Trump-endorsed candidates tend to do much worse than him.

“Brianna”????? Autocorrect is awesome.

(Trump is only there so he can poop at home, for real!!)

hello denizens of this thread i also hate donald j trump

.@SenJohnKennedy: You support Hamas, do you not?@AAIUSA's Maya Berry: Hamas is a foreign terrorist organization that I do not support...You asking the executive director of the Arab American Institute that question very much puts the focus on the issue of hate in our country? pic.twitter.com/h7WU3ePLOu

— CSPAN (@cspan) September 17, 2024

He ends with "You should hide your head in a bag."

Someone should end him

This is amazing. Quoted from Matt Levine's Money Stuff column.

A day after an apparent assassination attempt against former President Donald J. Trump, he appeared on a livestream on Monday to champion his latest business venture: cryptocurrencies.

“Crypto is one of those things we have to do,” Mr. Trump said on X. “Whether we like it or not, I have to do it.”
Beside him were his collaborators, including a family friend; Mr. Trump’s two oldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump; and two little-known crypto entrepreneurs with no experience running a high-profile business. Together, they were rolling out Mr. Trump’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, a project that has already raised concerns about the former president’s conflicts of interest and even alarmed some of his most vocal supporters in the industry.

Mr. Trump has promoted the venture since August, but its exact purpose remains unclear. No official launch date has been set. On the livestream, he did not address the project directly, leaving the details to the two entrepreneurs, Chase Herro and Zachary Folkman. Mr. Herro has described himself as “the dirtbag of the internet,” while Mr. Folkman used to teach classes on how to seduce women.

grifters gonna grift

He ends with "You should hide your head in a bag."

― There’s a Monster in my Vance (President Keyes), Tuesday, September 17, 2024 3:06 PM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

unbelievable

she said "no" like 100 times

the question itself was hateful and offensive. but she was not equivocating.

“ You can literally sell s– in a can, wrapped in piss, covered in human skin, for a billion dollars if the story’s right, because people will buy it,” Herro said about crypto in a 2018 YouTube video recorded as he drove in a Rolls-Royce. “I’m not going to question the right and wrong of all that.”

Trump pals vmic

Berry was more restrained than I would have been.

guy keeps finding new ways to be weird

Vance: This country never healed from the assassination of Robert F Kennedy Jr. pic.twitter.com/JA6mo1GfHZ

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 17, 2024

what a way to find out.

That settles it. Vance is from the future.

CRISWELL VANCE PREDICTS!

Stuart Rothenberg, ultra-mainstream columnist for Roll Call, says there's a definite chance of a Harris blowout:

If there is one thing on which liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats, journalists and political partisans all agree, it’s that the 2024 presidential race is too close to call.

Vice President Kamala Harris may have a slight advantage nationally and in a couple of competitive states, but polling in at least half a dozen swing states – including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin – shows that the presidential race between Harris and former president Donald Trump is separated by only a percentage point or two.

As the New York Times wrote on Sept. 8 and updated three days later, “The national results are in line with polls in the seven battleground states that will decide the presidential election, where Ms. Harris is tied with Mr. Trump or holds slim leads, according to New York Times polling averages. Taken together, they show a tight race that remains either candidate’s to win or lose.”

But if you are something of a gambler and everyone you know believes the 2024 presidential contest is and will remain extremely close, you probably should put a few dollars on the possibility that November will produce a clear and convincing win for Harris.

I've had some of the same thoughts as Rothenburg, but don't want to get too far into hopium. Her winning if it happens will be sufficient, if it's a bigger win than the polling models expect then that's peachy. I agree that it very much doesn't feel like a year that we decide to do Trump all over again. But vibes are only worth so much. But what the hell, he stuck his neck out and if he's right he can give Nate Silver a noogie.

There will be a line.

xxp that's a lot of words to say "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/";

Former President Donald Trump dropped below a 40 percent chance of an election victory for the first time on Tuesday, according to a forecast by a major polling aggregator.

FiveThirtyEight's election forecast gave the Republican candidate a 39 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, after a slate of strong polling for Vice President Kamala Harris boosted her odds to greater than 60 percent.

Previously, Trump had been performing close to the margin of error between the two candidates. When the model first relaunched following the replacement of President Joe Biden, it gave Trump a 41 percent chance of winning, which was rising steadily before the ABC debate on September 10.

Since then, Harris has received strong polls both nationally and in key swing states that have boosted her chances. However, FiveThirtyEight's model weighs surveys by geographical region, so while they show Harris doing well in Iowa, which is in the Midwest, she is unlikely to carry the state itself.

lot of ink shed over 40/60 vs 60/40 vs 50/50 but the one unchanging thing about all these forecasts agree on is that a blowout is not likely, but is much more likely for harris than for trump. you don't need pundits who have spoken to like seven voters to learn that.

part of that is this structure of the electoral college, and the fact that states like texas and florida are relatively close. this is why "democrat blowout is more likely than republican blowout" has been true for the past few elections.

part of it is that, right now, the polls are at something like +3 +/- MOE. If the MOE is at the limits in favor of harris, we get into blowout territory. If they are the limits in favor of trump we get a 2016 type result.

I assume the numbers will become more lopsided as Election Day approaches, though who knows which way it will fall.

Early voting starts in a month here, comin' up soon!

god, I so appreciate this abridged campaign schedule. Having el viejito on the campaign trail while I covered my eyes every time he rasped was not a pleasure I was looking forward to.

yeah its crazy the election is so soon

Seven weeks from today, we're now under the 50 day out mark.

more of this please

Former President Trump expressed his dislike Sunday of pop superstar Taylor Swift on Truth Social.

“I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!” the former president said in his post.

around here we just post in the “shit i don’t care bout” thread to be do thet

to be do thet

(Taylor's Version)

Harris currently speaking/taking questions at NABJ, wonder if this will go better for her than it did for Trump https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/09/17/watch_live_kamala_harris_will_take_questions_from_national_association_of_black_journalists.html

Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1968 tbf.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s brain was assassinated by a worm in 2005

GPT refused to let me depict any specific political figures, but I came close

https://scontent-bos5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/460645509_10169311451100304_9038359875630762042_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p526x296&_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=Wp_3BTO_8ZcQ7kNvgFKo4gY&_nc_ht=scontent-bos5-1.xx&oh=00_AYCeFh4qjFJilpF0TAttrc31DOxik7Q_tXDa0xYXao03ow&oe=66EFC677

The Times is gonna keep stamping their feet until Harris gives them an interview. If she's smart, she never will. (Gift link.)

She has hosted a convention, weathered a debate, held her first sit-down interview with a major television network.

Now the question for Vice President Kamala Harris’s media strategists is: What should she do next?

With no more mass-audience events remaining before Election Day, and former President Donald J. Trump declaring, for now, that he will not submit to another debate, Ms. Harris must determine the best way to keep introducing herself to voters who still have questions about her policies and plans for the nation.

During her 2020 campaign and early in her vice presidency, some of Ms. Harris’s biggest missteps came during unscripted encounters with journalists. To avoid taking chances, she has granted only six interviews in the 58 days since President Biden withdrew from the race, three with friendly radio hosts. Even the press-averse Mr. Biden took more questions in the final two months of his campaign than Ms. Harris has in what is nearly the first two months of hers.

...

Every big news network has a standing request with the Harris campaign for an interview. One potential appearance could be on CBS News’s “60 Minutes,” the country’s most-watched news program, which is planning its quadrennial election special on Oct. 7 and has requested interviews with both candidates.

But aides say Ms. Harris is more likely to spend time answering questions from inquisitors with smaller, more niche audiences that include many voters in battleground states. These interviewers include drive-time radio hosts and anchors from the local evening news — particularly those who, like the television reporter from Philadelphia, tend not to ask follow-ups if and when Ms. Harris filibusters or dodges their questions.

“There are big pluses to do local media; there’s no urgency for her to do national press,” said John Del Cecato, who was a media strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “There’s no soft spots that she’s desperate to keep armored. She simply has better ways to deliver her message to people than in national interviews.”

Y'all shouldn't read the Luntz return to the youth focus group post-debate.

I'd rather poke my eyes out