US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

someone posted a high-quality Alaska poll where Trump was up 5, kinda notable since he won the state by 10 in 2020 and 15 in 2016

can only hope this acutally means something, I just cannot fathom that what Trump and Vance are doing right now is actually going to work

lol table

great movement, and selzer polls are excellent. the one she does right before the election is so good they might as well not run the election. but the ones she does earlier in the year do lean democratic for some reason.

she had biden and trump tied in june and september 2020, then trump up by 7 the week before the election trump won by 8.

wait what

selzer june 2020: trump +1
selzer september 2020: tied
selzer election eve 2020: trump +7
election 2020: trump +8

So Selzer was wrong on Election Day?

No the poll is Iowa-only

no, she was almost exactly right with her final iowa state poll (true of her polls for the caucuses and her national polls too, and in 2016 too).

my point is that for whatever reason her general election polls historically skew democratic earlier in the cycle.

to be clear: it is good that harris is down 4 not 18! (not the only good poll in the last couple of days either.)

and yes, all those numbers are iowa not national, sorry if not clear. (although she does do national polls occasionally. her national poll on election eve in 2016 was bang on too.)

sorry, I misread you

that Alaska poll makes me want to move to Juneau for the season and canvas for Harris btw

looking into her now. i wonder why her firm doesn't do other states.

Amazing. This is, indeed, a real post.

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2darfo36xds4oznvip7x2ux7/bafkreias5476px3x4vel77zmkhicvql2udmemnnqjigjdhowvy4bdhn3cq@jpeg

this man has such impeccable political instincts

As was said on Bluesky, the internal polling must be ATROCIOUS. It'll just get worse!

lmao suicide by swift boat

Is the Trump campaign just flailing around wildly at this point or is there any semblance of a strategy to anything they've been doing over last couple days? It feels far too early for them to be descending into total desperation, but that's what it looks like is happening.

Maybe, but tbh when have the Trump campaign now and in 2016 and Trump in the White House been any different?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4fC5Woys2Q

the strategy is to stir up fears of immigration

hannibal lector coming over the border, haitians eating cats and dogs, joe and kamala encouraging it because of marxist social engineering. that is the case they are making.

It's obviously not out of line with anything he's done previously, but still it feels like a shift is happening in the campaign as if the wheels are suddenly coming off. They're getting really messy.

yeah between that insane debate and palling around with Laura Loomer and tripling down on the "they're eating your pets" story and now going after the most popular entertainer on the planet this does feel a fair bit crazier than what was happening from 2016-2020

i think he is more going for emotive appeals and doesn't care if what he is saying actually makes sense. he's betting that there are people who, even if rationally they don't believe mexico is literally emptying their jails and sending people here, will still be disturbed by that image on an unconscious level and move to vote for the "strongman" in the election.

I've rarely been more disgusted with the human race than when this snappily dressed older Cuban man who could've been my father defended Trump at my favorite restaurant bar last week. "They say they're not eating cats and dogs. But THEY ARE!"

there's no chance they're swaying any independents at this point, just trying to ensure the base turnout is 100%

he’s not ‘betting’ anything — he has no plan, he’s just angrily lashing out

his base isn't big enough to win the election though the reason why he won in 2016 is because independants and swing voters broke hard for him

"I am who I am" xp

there's no chance they're swaying any independents at this point, just trying to ensure the base turnout is 100%

― I? not I! He! He! HIM! (akm), Sunday, September 15, 2024 12:00 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think it is more subtle. he wants to paint a picture of a society that is being invaded, that is falling apart, whose leaders are loyal to undeserving "others" and not "ordinary americans." and he is doing it in a really bold, sort of caricature way. and just hoping it sticks with people who consciously would never admit to buying into such a cartoon. planting seeds of distrust toward "comrade kamala"

That's not subtle -- he's saying it aloud!

probably to dampen her turnout, to confuse low information voters who don't trust trump but maybe aren't sure what to believe, etc. i think it is aligned with what elon is doing by letting nazis take over X. bannon's phrase, "flood the zone with shit."

no he is not being subtle but the strategy is aimed at affecting the voters on an unconscious level

Yeah treeship, I get the idea behind it, but I'm saying it seems less like a planned out strategic move and more like throwing shit at the wall. You would not see all this nonsense cranked up to the max if things were running smoothly.

I’m not so convinced Trump is operating on as coherent a strategy as he used to. Or at least it’s a strategy that was designed to run against Biden and now he’s struggling to pivot.

vance going on CNN this morning and saying in so many words that he made the story up and he'd do it again.

they're doing a real terrible job of it though, the story isn't about whether or not immigrants are actually doing this shit, the story is that Trump and Vance are fucking assholes using tactics straight out of 1930s Germany. the story is about Laura Loomer and bomb threats and whether or not Trump has finally snapped for good. the media, for the first time in 9 years, is finally coming out and saying "he's lying about this"

xpost

Vance admitted the Ohio thing is bullshit on CNN this morning. Quote: "“If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people then that's what I'm going to do”. The obvious follow-up question would be, "So what else have you been lying about?" but this is Dana Bash we're talking about, so that didn't happen.

no he is not being subtle but the strategy is aimed at affecting the voters on an unconscious level

he's a total fucking idiot and crediting him with this kind of thought is subscribing to the fascist self-image as intellectuals with ideas. they're not that. they're just dumb fuckin assholes, it's really that simple.

i wish that guy with the rifle hadn't missed

Nah you don't need to be an intellectual with ideas to do what that post is describing. You just need to be a con man.

xpost

i am not saying they are intellectuals with ideas, i am saying they are dishonest actors who are trying to manipulate people emotionally because they can't make a straightforward case for their program. on cnn vance even is admitting that he thinks lying to rile people up is fine. as long as it strengthens the narrative.

yah fair enough

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jyhp3fzwzqtfmwg6ro4yhefr/bafkreihvpdxjngtufyhpfkixlynou6tuupypqf27ffuswiv7cvyanwrw24@jpeg

just saw this on bsky with the caption "they're desperate"

i don't think it is going to work by the way. i agree with frogbs. i am just describing what i think is the rationale behind saying insane, hateful shit that makes the majority of the country recoil

Nominate "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!" for thread title

“The Democrats want to take Yellowstone off of your tv”

I mean yeah there have been plenty of examples in the last couple weeks where Trump just straight up cannot come up with a single actual idea of what he would do in office, it's "I have the concept of a plan" all the way down

I dont even think treesh is wrong though, this is probably what Trump *thinks* he's doing, just because this is the shit that's worked for him in the past. like he's never really had any actual ideas his entire life things just always magically work out for him, you heard that in the exchange about Russia/Ukraine in the debate, he says him just being in office will fix it

I am starting to think that this is not actually going to be a close election. Either Trump or Harris (and I definitely think it's gonna be Harris) is going to win by a large and incontestable margin.

xp yeah he is just running on himself as the platform, the force of his personality, the idea that people respect him. it is pretty ironic given that he is an actual clown, like with makeup and an orange wig and everything.