US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

The election was a 50-50 chance 6 months ago, it was 50-50 when Harris became the candidate, and will likely be 50-50 on election day.

some yeah, others probably went to Trump after the RFK endorsement

as I understand it the story of 2016 and 2020 is quite simple, independents/swing voters went 2:1 for Trump in '16, then 2:1 for Biden in 2020. most indications are that Trump is not exactly winning those folks back. I can buy that his base has expanded among very online young men though.

Yeah, there's a bunch of loser incels who've turned 18 since November 2020.

Beltway Dems are fucking this up by playing civility with Lincoln Project Republicans, when no actual voters are begging for any such collaboration or intervention.

That's most of what Beltway Dems know how to do. They already have drinks with a lot of those guys anyway.

Where they all get together and bitch about Gaza protesters, obviously.

i saw a *white dudes for Harris* lawn sign the other day.

As Debate Looms, Trump Is Now the One Facing Questions About Age and Capacity

With President Biden no longer in the race, former President Donald J. Trump would be the oldest person ever to serve in the Oval Office. But his rambling, sometimes incoherent public statements have stirred concern among voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/us/politics/debate-trump-age-capacity.html

be cool if harris repeated trump's line about biden: "i don't think he knows what he said". that would be funny.

xp yeah, just heard the editor from The Atlantic talking about the same thing on NPR - glad to see this is gathering mainstream attention

if Harris is smart (she is) she will wait until Trump starts complaining about how they replaced Biden/how long did she know he was mentally incompetent etc. and then take the opportunity to turn it around on him, how he is also old and incoherent but won't get out of the way because he is not a patriotic public servant etc.

"I agree, no one that old and senile should be running - oh I meant YOU"

The election was a 50-50 chance 6 months ago, it was 50-50 when Harris became the candidate, and will likely be 50-50 on election day.

― il lavoro mi rovina la giornata (PBKR),

although there's only a 10 percent chance of that

it is too bad that this is too long for next month's thread title.

“It’s a very important issue. But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I’m talking about that — because the child care is, child care, it’s, couldn’t, you know, there’s something, you have to have it. In this country, you have to have it. But when you talk about those numbers compared to the kind of numbers that I’m talking about, by taxing foreign nations at levels that they’re not used to, but they’ll get used to it very quickly — and it’s not going to stop them from doing business with us, but they’ll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. Those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers that we’re talking about, including child care, that it’s going to take care.”

Wow, that's the first Peter Baker byline worth a damn

But his rambling, sometimes incoherent public statements have stirred concern among voters.

Dying @ this. "His threats to murder congress and dissolve the nation have raised eyebrows among some corners of the electorate."

nelsonlaugh.gif

The Nevada Green Party accidentally filed the forms to put the words "Jill Stein" up as a public referendum question instead of as a candidate for President

— charlie 🇺🇦🇵🇸 (@baranskocracy) September 8, 2024

Text: "The Nevada Green Party accidentally filed the forms to put the words "Jill Stein" up as a public referendum question instead of as a candidate for President"

nelsonlaughgif, Part 2:

RFK Jr. remains on the Michigan ballot, as he bailed too late for the things to get reprinted.

Dying @ this. "His threats to murder congress and dissolve the nation have raised eyebrows among some corners of the electorate."

― waste of compute (One Eye Open), M

That's what I'm saying. Imagine reading this in the voice of Frank Drebin.

Yeah, there's a bunch of loser incels who've turned 18 since November 2020.

While that is true, Trump's campaign also believes that gross sexism and unhinged misogyny is attractive to unreconstructed men of color: Gaetz says that for every Karen they lose, there’s a Julio and a Jamal ready to sign up.

Hits a quadfecta of cynical, insulting, crude, and cruel.

JD Vance pushing the cat-eating line. So NOW he cares about cats huh.

Months ago, I raised the issue of Haitian illegal immigrants draining social services and generally causing chaos all over Springfield, Ohio.

Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn't be in this country. Where is our border czar? pic.twitter.com/rf0EDIeI5i

— JD Vance (@JDVance) September 9, 2024

As I see it, if Lincoln Project Republicans want to support Democratic candidates they are welcome to, as long as they don't expect concessions for their support. As for treating them with civility (shrug) that's OK with me. There's no reason for the Democrats go out of their way to either praise them or attack them as long as they are reasonably well-behaved. Just say 'thank you' and then ignore them.

"Reports now show"... Trump teaches his disciples well.

People are saying

The Nevada Green Party accidentally filed the forms to put the words "Jill Stein" up as a public referendum question instead of as a candidate for President

just imagining the chaos that could possibly ensue from this

RFK Jr. remains on the Michigan ballot, as he bailed too late for the things to get reprinted.

he's also suing NC to take him off the ballots, which have already been printed, delaying the process which I assume was his intent all along

I guess I need them to move along from Suck Up To Republicans Week pretty sharpish, it’s hurting momentum.

Harris “blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything,” Silver wrote in a post on his website.

This is so stupid. I am amenable to the argument that she should've picked Shapiro because it would make it easier to win what will likely be the tipping-point state. But I can't imagine that the broad electorate -- most of whom had never heard of Shapiro or Walz before two months ago -- would perceive a meaningful ideological difference between them. Personally, I was hoping she'd choose Walz, but both of them are essentially mainstream Democrats who would be attacked as frothing communists no matter what.

I’m still back on “vote YES on Jill Stein”

"tack to the center" he is such a hack

People who are very online all the time (and I am not saying I'm not one of those people) have a bad habit of thinking that Shapiro is "centrist" and Walz is "left" based on what anti-Zionists on Twitter say. But normal people are not aware of anti-Zionist Twitter! To most voters, Shapiro is an east coast Jew and Walz is a Midwestern everyman. The former is left, the latter is centrist.

Hmmm you don't have to pay any attention to twitter to see the American right trying to co-opt jewishness in 2024 tho. Demogralhic stereotypes are in flux.

xp i thought it was white collar / blue collar

stepping away from the precipice momentarily:

.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.

National: Harris 49/46

VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024

We got 3 polls of North Carolina today, all conducted after Labor Day.

Harris leads 49% to 46% in two of them (Survey USA & Quinnipiac). In the third (FAU), Trump is up 48/47.

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024

Virginia? ok

would perceive a meaningful ideological difference between them

this is probably true but Walz is the duck hunter/fisherman guy, there would be no mossy oak campaign hat with Shapiro on the bill

Arizona and Florida polling the same seems odd

We've gotten Florida polling that has made Trump nervous.

That said, Florida officially has a million more registered GOP than Dems for the first time in its history.

trump polling too bad in florida seems like pretty decent evidence of polling bias

flopson, fly back down here and let's fix this

(in the replies to an account focused on architectural photography no less!)

Midwest Modern! That guy is fighting the good fight while touring the area where I grew up.

lol you people are insane

— Midwest Modern (@JoshLipnik) September 9, 2024

Polling error gotta be like 3% right?

xpost

"I need to hear more about Harris, she's an unknown..."

who are these people?? She's the fucking vice president! what do you need to know?

how far she can go on Hot Ones, y'know, important stuff like that

xp Apparently a lot of people. We live in such a stupid country, but even a lot of the smart people I know have never paid an iota of attention to her and what she's accomplished, until now

yeah, I guess living in the Bay Area - we knew her all along, since the 90s

I'm not going to watch the debate tomorrow. Trump is hard to debate because he doesn't debate, he never answers any questions, he just uses his time to dominate, deflect, denigrate and lie lie lie. I'm hoping she has a strategy for countering that, but I don't want the stress of being an observer

I have no plans to watch it either.. I'll just wait for the highlights. There's nothing to be gleaned from this

I'm going to watch the Emmys on Sunday, though

It’s rigged.