US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

man, I've got friends losing their shit over this:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trumps-advantage-in-nate-silvers-model-expands-harris-campaign-hasnt-found-2nd-gear/

I think there are plenty of reasonable things to dislike about Nate Silver, but being mad about his numbers isn't something with a great track record tbh. I hope they improve and/or he's wrong, but I'm not gonna yell at polls I don't like.

The best response as always is, this election is winnable — go out and win it. The game hasn't been played yet.

It's not a matter of being mad at Nate Silver, it's a matter of not paying attention to trends while concentrating on what a pollster said today.

Yeah, I agree. There are reasons to feel optimistic! But mostly imo there are reasons to feel like the Democrats CAN win this and SHOULD win it, so they need to do it. I think the worst thing about polls and projections is the sense of inevitability or momentum they can create in one direction or another, which can be bad whether they're hyping people up or bumming them out.

but I'm not gonna yell at polls I don't like

what happened to Rasmussen this time around? I don't think I've heard a peep out of them

this was the poll that called retirement community landlines at 11am on tuesdays and always had trump in front

Nate Silver's whole thing is an extended act of self-harm; no matter how good his numbers are, he taints the output by being such a smarmy piece of shit. He's almost as bad as that fuck who ran for office in Minnesota recently and got blown out, whose name I can't remember.

Rasmussen is still around

I'm just gonna keep mentally repeating "turnout models suck, nobody knows." It might even be true.

Liz Cheney says she's voting for Harris:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/us/politics/liz-cheney-kamala-harris-vote.html

https://i.imgur.com/5AXTpmT.png

There are moments during this thing where I hope it never ends.

Dude makes Ted Cruz look like Fonzie.

Liz Cheney says she's voting for Harris

I think McCain's son has said the same

Oh my god what is that

How awkward can a person BE

(Vance trying to greet a constituent, not Cheney)

Are you sure he's not just intercepting a wild punch?

“It’s a marked shift from when New Hampshire was among the bluish battlefields where Trump’s campaign boasted it could expand its electoral map as President Joe Biden faltered. Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley said days after the June debate that the party had started to “engage” in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia. A post-debate survey showed Trump had erased Biden’s polling lead in the Granite State, leaving Republicans gleeful and Democrats spooked.

Today, New Hampshire stands as the latest sign of how Trump’s map is constricting in his run against Kamala Harris. A trio of surveys have shown the vice president opening an outside-the-margin-of-error lead over Trump — one that she aimed to cement on Wednesday with a campaign event at a brewery on New Hampshire’s Seacoast where she touted her new plan for small business tax breaks. Race raters have shifted the state to the left. And Republicans here are privately bemoaning the Trump campaign’s lack of investment in this state where Democrats outnumber Republicans in field offices by 17 to 1.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/04/new-hampshire-donald-trump-shrinking-electoral-map-00177390

Sounds like everything's great over there:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ig5djks6d6e6kyet32abh5zs/bafkreiblnamkeitg7gtfg6ucgdhnoyfyjgee5zc6o4xeonly6w6hyrey4u@jpeg

“Onward to victory!”

gotta love it when the dont leak email immediately leaks

I'm not sure there's a 'hot story' but there are plenty of smaller leaks about internal bickering and conflict, they're all over the place.. not something we're hearing from the Harris/Walz ticket

'because you spoke out of school' is odd, unless the entire staff are interns

or maybe it's this from yesterday, lol:

Trump campaign ‘no longer thinks New Hampshire is winnable and is pulling back from state,’ leaked insider email claims

Did they even fix their security

Trump X'd about some 'enormous gigantic breathtaking announcement' a few days ago that would leave the Dems whimpering & quivering in their boots, but nothing materialized as far as I know

or 'troothed' I mean

The announcement is that Biden is running again, surely:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4usmserhjqkvhldgedfjb3jw/bafkreibf5nhg2ipt6ylgmj5dt2v6eqdiehvjhravej42js7ud676cjensy@jpeg

i thought he would boot JD and replace with Tulsi as the anti-Kambalah, swinging technodork Bernie-bro left with free IVF and abortions / alternative health care for all, legal weed and recreational whatevs, tax breaks for sex workers and crypto, universal basic income, paid for by rounding up and taking assets from illegals, democrats and teh woke. but they are even too dumb for that.

I don’t know how important this Dave Rubin/Tim Pool Russian dupes story is, but it sure is funny

It is hilarious and so dumbly transparenet. Real Boris and Natasha work. Got Turning Point tangled up in it too. I don't know if it's a big big deal, but it's quite a web. People are going to be unearthing damning clips for days.

There's some definite tip-of-iceberg stuff happening, I suspect. I think there's more roffles to come at least.

transparent, that is

Yes, definitely more to come.

Got Turning Point tangled up in it too. I don't know if it's a big big deal, but it's quite a web.

Considering that Turning Point is handling GOTV for the Trump campaign at the moment, it could be a very big deal (in terms of distraction leading to major mistakes).

that was Vance meeting Ohio Dem Rep Kaptur btw:

That time @JDVance1 and @RepMarcyKaptur met at the picket line... #UAWonStrike #UAW pic.twitter.com/j0Wu8Mt1Jt

— Justin Billau (@photogbillau) October 6, 2023

"first time here?"

This is Tim Walz’s family from Nebraska.

🤣👏🏻 pic.twitter.com/zTXuTUDWsN

— Ryan Fournier (@RyanAFournier) September 4, 2024

Did someone share that last night? Apparently they're all his distant cousins. I def wouldn't wanna be judged by my racist relatives.

Stupid fuckers can’t use apostrophes.

I don’t know how important this Dave Rubin/Tim Pool Russian dupes story is, but it sure is funny

― There’s a Monster in my Vance (President Keyes), Wednesday, September 4, 2024 11:13 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

amazing how much money is constantly shoveled into the worst rw bs, they should be made to get real jobs

Yeah Tim Pool’s best defense is that he’s an idiot who totally thinks some random company wanted to give him hundreds of thousands of dollars because he’s such an awesome dude.

tbf it does happen a lot the money is just usually coming from american billionaires

Another one of those NYT focus groups, this one of PA voters:

1. Strong, 39 year old 2020 Biden voter;
2. Likeable, 69 year old 2020 Biden voter
3. Drunk, 50 year old 2020 Trump voter;
4. OK, 55 year old 2020 Trump voter;
5. Naive, 63 year old 2020 Biden voter;
6. Fraud, 52 year old 2020 Trump voter;
7. Liberal, 57 year old 2020 Biden voter;
8. Unserious, 61 year old 2020 Biden voter
9. Bright, 40 year old 2020 Biden voter;
10. Ok, 34 year old 2020 Biden voter;
11. Lucky, 56 year old 2020 Trump voter;
'12. Untested, 43 year old 2020 Biden voter.

Walz:

1. Positive, 43 year old 2020 Biden voter;
2. Pass, 39 year old 2020 Biden voter;
3. A Good Man, 69 year old, 2020 Biden voter;
4. Liar, 50 year old, 2020 Trump voter;
5. Pass, 55 year old, 2020 Trump voter;
6. Useless, 63 year old 2020 Biden voter;
7. Unknown, 57 year old 2020 Biden voter;
8. Dad, 61 year old 2020 Biden voter
9. Lovable, 40 year old 2020 Biden voter.

The first set is for Harris.

it's a real talent to be able to dig people like this up

this guy gets it

10. Ok, 34 year old 2020 Biden voter;

"drunk"???

That crucial drunk demographic

there's a right-wing rumor that Harris has a drinking problem

They found a 2007 photo of Harris at a Chili's.

KamaLUSH, amirite?

She put the lime in the coconut, she drank 'em bot' up