US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

I don't know if I'd place any bets about either candidate getting more votes than 2020 given that it had 25-30 million more votes than the previous three elections.

despite what the polls are saying I'd be pretty shocked if Harris doesn't win, she's a much better candidate than Hillary or Biden was, while Trump is somehow even worse. I don't know how Trump is going to win over that last 1-3% he needs. hard to see how the "everything's going to hell if Kamala wins" attack is gonna stick given she's been the VP for 4 years. ditto for the "I will fix everything and make everybody rich" thing, not sure if people are gonna buy that given he was already president for 4 years

you never know though, this country is real fuckin dumb sometimes and I can't help but thing the increasingly toxic political climate benefits Trump

and trump, as usual, has a women problem:

An ABC News/Ipsos poll published Sunday showed Harris with a huge lead over Trump among women, 54 percent to 41 percent, while Trump enjoyed a more modest 51 percent to 46 percent lead over Harris among men.

surprised it’s that close

interesting finding

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/04/election-poll-low-income-voters-harris-trump/75018088007/

Low income voters − those making less than $20,000 a year − now support Harris over former President Donald Trump, 58%-35%, the biggest jump among all groups, according to the poll. It is a reversal from June, when Trump, at 39%, was three points ahead of Biden, at 36% with voters of this economic group.

What about the Poorly Educated? Do they still love Trump?

lol pic.twitter.com/PCfy7GAXdq

— Zeeshan Aleem (@ZeeshanAleem) September 4, 2024

"When he tried to make mac & cheese.. now get this... he used skim milk!"

“When he said something was a ‘nothingburger’, it was invariably a ‘somethingburger’.”

More like Tim Floorz, amirite?

Sometimes funny things happen:

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/a-big-ripoff-white-nationalist-nick-fuentes-blasts-trump-for-admitting-he-lost-the-2020-election/

(The final two paragraphs are a delight.)

wonder if this is gonna convince the independants

https://i.imgur.com/7N6BywQ.png

Cool bro!

But even funnier/more telling:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/crime/2024/09/04/indictment-russians-tennessee-company-tenet/75074263007/

Per a summary from the indictment:

Their eventual contact was allegedly $400k/pm to commentator-1 who is presumably Benny Johnson, and $100k/video (weekly) for commentator-2 who is presumably Tim Pool

more on Walz's shameful past

https://theonion.com/sources-allege-tim-walzs-aw-shucks-persona-merely-facade-concealing-true-gee-whiz-tendencies/

CapsLock never coming off... lower case is for LOSERS

all harris ads should just be random trump statements. about bacon and wind. that's all you really need.

man, I've got friends losing their shit over this:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trumps-advantage-in-nate-silvers-model-expands-harris-campaign-hasnt-found-2nd-gear/

I think there are plenty of reasonable things to dislike about Nate Silver, but being mad about his numbers isn't something with a great track record tbh. I hope they improve and/or he's wrong, but I'm not gonna yell at polls I don't like.

The best response as always is, this election is winnable — go out and win it. The game hasn't been played yet.

It's not a matter of being mad at Nate Silver, it's a matter of not paying attention to trends while concentrating on what a pollster said today.

Yeah, I agree. There are reasons to feel optimistic! But mostly imo there are reasons to feel like the Democrats CAN win this and SHOULD win it, so they need to do it. I think the worst thing about polls and projections is the sense of inevitability or momentum they can create in one direction or another, which can be bad whether they're hyping people up or bumming them out.

but I'm not gonna yell at polls I don't like

what happened to Rasmussen this time around? I don't think I've heard a peep out of them

this was the poll that called retirement community landlines at 11am on tuesdays and always had trump in front

Nate Silver's whole thing is an extended act of self-harm; no matter how good his numbers are, he taints the output by being such a smarmy piece of shit. He's almost as bad as that fuck who ran for office in Minnesota recently and got blown out, whose name I can't remember.

Rasmussen is still around

I'm just gonna keep mentally repeating "turnout models suck, nobody knows." It might even be true.

Liz Cheney says she's voting for Harris:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/us/politics/liz-cheney-kamala-harris-vote.html

https://i.imgur.com/5AXTpmT.png

There are moments during this thing where I hope it never ends.

Dude makes Ted Cruz look like Fonzie.

Liz Cheney says she's voting for Harris

I think McCain's son has said the same

Oh my god what is that

How awkward can a person BE

(Vance trying to greet a constituent, not Cheney)

Are you sure he's not just intercepting a wild punch?

“It’s a marked shift from when New Hampshire was among the bluish battlefields where Trump’s campaign boasted it could expand its electoral map as President Joe Biden faltered. Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley said days after the June debate that the party had started to “engage” in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia. A post-debate survey showed Trump had erased Biden’s polling lead in the Granite State, leaving Republicans gleeful and Democrats spooked.

Today, New Hampshire stands as the latest sign of how Trump’s map is constricting in his run against Kamala Harris. A trio of surveys have shown the vice president opening an outside-the-margin-of-error lead over Trump — one that she aimed to cement on Wednesday with a campaign event at a brewery on New Hampshire’s Seacoast where she touted her new plan for small business tax breaks. Race raters have shifted the state to the left. And Republicans here are privately bemoaning the Trump campaign’s lack of investment in this state where Democrats outnumber Republicans in field offices by 17 to 1.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/04/new-hampshire-donald-trump-shrinking-electoral-map-00177390

Sounds like everything's great over there:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ig5djks6d6e6kyet32abh5zs/bafkreiblnamkeitg7gtfg6ucgdhnoyfyjgee5zc6o4xeonly6w6hyrey4u@jpeg

“Onward to victory!”

gotta love it when the dont leak email immediately leaks

I'm not sure there's a 'hot story' but there are plenty of smaller leaks about internal bickering and conflict, they're all over the place.. not something we're hearing from the Harris/Walz ticket

'because you spoke out of school' is odd, unless the entire staff are interns

or maybe it's this from yesterday, lol:

Trump campaign ‘no longer thinks New Hampshire is winnable and is pulling back from state,’ leaked insider email claims

Did they even fix their security

Trump X'd about some 'enormous gigantic breathtaking announcement' a few days ago that would leave the Dems whimpering & quivering in their boots, but nothing materialized as far as I know

or 'troothed' I mean

The announcement is that Biden is running again, surely:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4usmserhjqkvhldgedfjb3jw/bafkreibf5nhg2ipt6ylgmj5dt2v6eqdiehvjhravej42js7ud676cjensy@jpeg

i thought he would boot JD and replace with Tulsi as the anti-Kambalah, swinging technodork Bernie-bro left with free IVF and abortions / alternative health care for all, legal weed and recreational whatevs, tax breaks for sex workers and crypto, universal basic income, paid for by rounding up and taking assets from illegals, democrats and teh woke. but they are even too dumb for that.

I don’t know how important this Dave Rubin/Tim Pool Russian dupes story is, but it sure is funny

It is hilarious and so dumbly transparenet. Real Boris and Natasha work. Got Turning Point tangled up in it too. I don't know if it's a big big deal, but it's quite a web. People are going to be unearthing damning clips for days.

There's some definite tip-of-iceberg stuff happening, I suspect. I think there's more roffles to come at least.

transparent, that is

Yes, definitely more to come.

Got Turning Point tangled up in it too. I don't know if it's a big big deal, but it's quite a web.

Considering that Turning Point is handling GOTV for the Trump campaign at the moment, it could be a very big deal (in terms of distraction leading to major mistakes).

that was Vance meeting Ohio Dem Rep Kaptur btw:

That time @JDVance1 and @RepMarcyKaptur met at the picket line... #UAWonStrike #UAW pic.twitter.com/j0Wu8Mt1Jt

— Justin Billau (@photogbillau) October 6, 2023