US Politics, September 2024 -- “I’m Not Going to Apologize For Posting a Joke”

exactly

i refuse to believe DJT would move somewhere with a primarily POC population

Belarus then

Needs a steady supply of poverty stricken blonde white women

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:7kra3m5l4sl2pa6w5l35mi5f/bafkreietleqytpxzqiglla3lvextdakp4x2sjctkru63drbmefggwohs74@jpeg

That is quite an imbalance in MI and WI. NC too--Trump's ahead there, but by less than a point.

If Trump can flip PA and GA and the 2020 map otherwise stays the same, then that's the ballgame (though at this point I'd probably try harder to hold NC).

“If Trump can flip X state a decade into his political career” is a hypothetical on the level of “if Trump can throw a kettlebell over Mar-a-Lago’s roof”. Again I ask, who is he bringing into the tent that was not there before? Harris is absolutely kicking his ass with the “oh wow, I guess I’ll vote this year after all” crowd.

Tbf, he won PA and GA (and MI and WI and AZ) in 2016.

Furthermore, we're talking about close elections. In 2020, Biden won PA by 1.17% and GA by 0.23%. It's not crazy to think that a couple of thousand voters could move in the other direction for whatever reason.

"Again I ask, who is he bringing into the tent that was not there before?"

Republican presidential nominee former President Trump is outperforming his 2020 support among Hispanics, who prefer him on immigration during the 2024 race, according to a new poll.

You gotta dig into that story a bit:

Republican presidential nominee former President Trump is outperforming his 2020 support among Hispanics, who prefer him on immigration during the 2024 race, according to a new poll.

Hispanic voters give Trump a 42% to 37% advantage over Democrat presidential candidate Vice President Harris regarding immigration policy, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.

Among the broader electorate, 46% preferred Trump on immigration over the 36% who preferred Harris, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Aug. 21-28.

Hispanics, described as a diverse and fast-growing section of the electorate in the United States, prefer Harris' approach over that of Trump by 18 points for health care and 23 points for climate change, according to the poll. On the economy, the survey found registered voters overall prefer Trump's platform over that of Harris by 45% to 36%.

Hispanic voters prefer former President Trump's approach on immigration over that of Vice President Harris, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

But Trump and Harris drew equally on the economy among registered Hispanic voters, garnering 39% support from that base each.

The lede is slightly misleading.

He's a got a clear lead on immigration, according to the poll, not everything else.

But this is the most important part:

Harris currently has a 13-point lead among registered Hispanic voters, the poll showed. The Hispanic vote went to Biden by 21 points four years ago, according to a 2020 Pew Research exit poll analysis

I think Harris is probably going to win too, but unperson's continual insistence that Trump cannot attract new voters is not panning out in reality.

Right! It's more accurate to say "Kamala Harris is below Biden's 2020 numbers among Hispanic voters," not the other lede.

and every single day, an angry young incel turns 18

and every single day, an angry old man yells at clouds for the last time

OH MY GOD IT'S REAL. THIS IS ON THE OFFICIAL KAMALAHQ TIKTOK ACCOUNT. THEY HAVE SUBWAY SURFER GAMEPLAY NEXT TO A CLIP. pic.twitter.com/RucxMWZerG

— Joe (@electionsjoe) September 4, 2024

i think KH is going to get way more votes than Biden did in 2020! people like her for one thing. 2020 was all about NOT TRUMP. now it is NOT TRUMP + candidate i can really like and am excited by.

yeah but brat summer is officially over

(except in the southern hemisphere)

I don't know if I'd place any bets about either candidate getting more votes than 2020 given that it had 25-30 million more votes than the previous three elections.

despite what the polls are saying I'd be pretty shocked if Harris doesn't win, she's a much better candidate than Hillary or Biden was, while Trump is somehow even worse. I don't know how Trump is going to win over that last 1-3% he needs. hard to see how the "everything's going to hell if Kamala wins" attack is gonna stick given she's been the VP for 4 years. ditto for the "I will fix everything and make everybody rich" thing, not sure if people are gonna buy that given he was already president for 4 years

you never know though, this country is real fuckin dumb sometimes and I can't help but thing the increasingly toxic political climate benefits Trump

and trump, as usual, has a women problem:

An ABC News/Ipsos poll published Sunday showed Harris with a huge lead over Trump among women, 54 percent to 41 percent, while Trump enjoyed a more modest 51 percent to 46 percent lead over Harris among men.

surprised it’s that close

interesting finding

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/04/election-poll-low-income-voters-harris-trump/75018088007/

Low income voters − those making less than $20,000 a year − now support Harris over former President Donald Trump, 58%-35%, the biggest jump among all groups, according to the poll. It is a reversal from June, when Trump, at 39%, was three points ahead of Biden, at 36% with voters of this economic group.

What about the Poorly Educated? Do they still love Trump?

lol pic.twitter.com/PCfy7GAXdq

— Zeeshan Aleem (@ZeeshanAleem) September 4, 2024

"When he tried to make mac & cheese.. now get this... he used skim milk!"

“When he said something was a ‘nothingburger’, it was invariably a ‘somethingburger’.”

More like Tim Floorz, amirite?

Sometimes funny things happen:

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/a-big-ripoff-white-nationalist-nick-fuentes-blasts-trump-for-admitting-he-lost-the-2020-election/

(The final two paragraphs are a delight.)

wonder if this is gonna convince the independants

https://i.imgur.com/7N6BywQ.png

Cool bro!

But even funnier/more telling:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/crime/2024/09/04/indictment-russians-tennessee-company-tenet/75074263007/

Per a summary from the indictment:

Their eventual contact was allegedly $400k/pm to commentator-1 who is presumably Benny Johnson, and $100k/video (weekly) for commentator-2 who is presumably Tim Pool

more on Walz's shameful past

https://theonion.com/sources-allege-tim-walzs-aw-shucks-persona-merely-facade-concealing-true-gee-whiz-tendencies/

CapsLock never coming off... lower case is for LOSERS

all harris ads should just be random trump statements. about bacon and wind. that's all you really need.

man, I've got friends losing their shit over this:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trumps-advantage-in-nate-silvers-model-expands-harris-campaign-hasnt-found-2nd-gear/

I think there are plenty of reasonable things to dislike about Nate Silver, but being mad about his numbers isn't something with a great track record tbh. I hope they improve and/or he's wrong, but I'm not gonna yell at polls I don't like.

The best response as always is, this election is winnable — go out and win it. The game hasn't been played yet.

It's not a matter of being mad at Nate Silver, it's a matter of not paying attention to trends while concentrating on what a pollster said today.

Yeah, I agree. There are reasons to feel optimistic! But mostly imo there are reasons to feel like the Democrats CAN win this and SHOULD win it, so they need to do it. I think the worst thing about polls and projections is the sense of inevitability or momentum they can create in one direction or another, which can be bad whether they're hyping people up or bumming them out.

but I'm not gonna yell at polls I don't like

what happened to Rasmussen this time around? I don't think I've heard a peep out of them

this was the poll that called retirement community landlines at 11am on tuesdays and always had trump in front

Nate Silver's whole thing is an extended act of self-harm; no matter how good his numbers are, he taints the output by being such a smarmy piece of shit. He's almost as bad as that fuck who ran for office in Minnesota recently and got blown out, whose name I can't remember.

Rasmussen is still around

I'm just gonna keep mentally repeating "turnout models suck, nobody knows." It might even be true.

Liz Cheney says she's voting for Harris:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/us/politics/liz-cheney-kamala-harris-vote.html