US Politics, August 2024 -- "Unburdened By a Has-Been"

If she's given the free air time at CNN, sure. I think she'd make out fine either way.

you're being an embarrassing idiot

There you go again. I'm being embarrassing because I think she's a great candidate who could stand up to anything. Okay.

Don't you have some LOLs and OTMs you need to hand out?

Also, the agreed-upon terms of the ABC debate do not specify the participating candidates. So nothing has changed in the terms themselves, just in the candidates who qualify.
https://abc.com/news/adaaae86-2621-41c7-b8f3-33a5215783f2/category/1138628

15%, so she wouldn't have to put up with Kennedy--that's good.

she should debate kennedy that would be funny

This is the right move. There is no reason for Harris to give into Trump's demands when she has the stronger hand.

The Harris response, in short: we’ll be at the ABC debate that Trump agreed to with Biden on Sept 10, regardless of if Trump is. Any other debates can come after that and depend on discussions. pic.twitter.com/IW0ufZPG5P

— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) August 3, 2024

Is that not a problem then--legally--if he has a pending lawsuit with ABC? Honest question, I don't know.

I'm sure *he* will say it is a problem. He filed the suit in March, so it was already in litigation when he originally agreed to the debate.

He has--and yeah, that's what I wondered last night, why did he agree in the first place? (Remembering now how his ongoing tax-audit because a default excuse for everything for a couple of years.)

(because = became)

Because he thought he'd be debating Sleepy Joe!

Anyway:

https://t.co/xTLWp3Gj35 pic.twitter.com/Xi95CMLZ23

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) August 3, 2024

I think they've stumbled onto a perfect nickname: Mr. Anytime, Anywhere, Anyplace.

it seems wrong when i see "one way or the other" instead of "one way or another". i guess i just see it less. or never. i never see it.

no, i've seen it. just see it less. where i live.

Please take a few minutes and listen to @AllanLichtman as he picks the winners of the nine presidential elections. He developed a system called the Thirteen Keys to the White House.
He is saying Kamala Harris has all thirteen keys to win.#DemVoice1 #DemsUnited pic.twitter.com/d4sPYBnNeM

— Izzy Ⓜ️Ⓜ️ 🇺🇸 (@1zzyzyx1) July 31, 2024

Will Alan Lichtman’s “keys to the white house” hold true in this elections? He’s preliminary calling a KH win and has correctly predicted every president (with the exception of Gore vs Bush which was a fairly controversial win). This election cycle has been an unpredictable shitshow so far.

Obama was going to show up with or without McCain for their first debate; he called the old coot's bluff. Why should Harris do likewise?

it seems wrong when i see "one way or the other" instead of "one way or another". i guess i just see it less. or never. i never see it.

― scott seward, Saturday, August 3, 2024 11:34 AM (seventeen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Depends on your feelings for Blondie

Polls are very close giving KH a slight advantage

https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump-tied-538s-new-polling-averages/story?id=112494481

i posted the moptop key guy upthread a bit. i like his keys to the kingdom system.

sometimes i see these freaks that elections dredge up and get a little sad knowing that ill forget about most of them before long

Great pic of Harris in that ABC story

with all due respect to the 13 keys to winning, i've been watching enough baseball to know that you only need 3 keys, and they're the hyundai keys to the game:

- keep the momentum up
- get into their bullpen early
- defensive pressure

- stop the steal

ah very nice shaprio going with the intractable tribal conflict story sometimes you just have to lean on the classics

Genuinely, what could a person possibly mean when they say the Israeli/Palestinian conflict has been going on for a thousand years?

Even going back 2000 years, the Israelites/Judaens primary conflicts have almost universally been with Christians and Roman pagans. https://t.co/aj5d0TDZqm

— Isi Breen (@isaiah_bb) August 3, 2024

it seems wrong when i see "one way or the other" instead of "one way or another". i guess i just see it less. or never. i never see it.

― scott seward, Saturday, August 3, 2024 11:34 AM (seventeen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Depends on your feelings for Blondie

lol ymp

Lichtman and his keys are way too Dr. Feelgood's Cure-All Miracle Oil for me. The evaluations for each of the keys being true or false seem to come down to his own subjective evaluation. Not total nonsense but not really great for a prediction engine. His pitch is great for the zeitgeist—ignore polls, ignore the twists and turns of the day—but at the end of the day his system has called 9 out of 10 elections correctly. Not really that impressive when you consider that picking randomly his chances of getting 9 out of 10 right since 1984 are about 1 in 500. So if you have 500 people who have devised systems for predicting the winner of presidential elections since 1984, it's virtually guaranteed that 1 or 2 of them will perform as well as the keys have. And nobody wants to put the 499 people who predicted wrong on the news, Jim Cramer has that job and he's not going anywhere.

and most of those elections were pretty easy calls

at least if kamala loses nobody will have to pay attention to dude's keys again

what am i looking for? my keys lol

Anecdotally, every single Dem voting friend: ‘she wins unless the DNC fucks up, so I am worried because… the DNC!’

A tricky point in calculating odds... at least 2-3 elections since 1980 have been easy to predict (1984, 1992, 2008), but I was assuming we were talking about election prediction "engines" that weren't just one person making educated guesses (which I think Lichtman's "engine" is still a little too close to). But if you design your prediction engine after those "easy" elections have taken place, those elections are obviously going to influence your engine design and increase its accuracy.

xp What do they imagine will happen exactly?

'96 was really easy; maybe '88 too, after Dukakis's fast start.

when people claim that their models predicted things that predate their models

https://i.imgur.com/zFw2Vsq.gif

lol lagoon

The real strength of the keys system, I would reiterate, is that it is a tonic for doomscrolling... Lichtman is telling us that the election will be decided by medium and long-term factors, those factors are pointing to a likely Harris win, and the day-to-day shit doesn't matter so you can safely ignore it. Irresistable!

he also said that Biden probably would have one if he hadn't dropped out.

if anything bidens gotta be stronger by the keys system because hes the incumbent, im guessing that has to be a key most obvious key in the world

I was assuming we were talking about election prediction "engines" that weren't just one person making educated guesses (which I think Lichtman's "engine" is still a little too close to).

Yeah but if you design something that works on its own, you wouldn't get interviewed on TV. Nobody interviews a plug & play engine. They interview gurus with secret inside knowledge.

if you design your prediction engine after those "easy" elections have taken place, those elections are obviously going to influence your engine design and increase its accuracy.

Shoot first, THEN draw the bullseye.

well, it's the media that is drawing the bullseye after watching everyone take their shots at the side of the barn.

Lichtman's probably glad Biden dropped out because Biden getting shellacked by Trump would have blown his keys system. After that debate, fuck your keys... Biden was toast. Trump would have run rampant at the second debate against Biden, now he's too scared to even show up.

The Lichtman model was not only applied to presidents from the 80s onwards it’s based on 31 elections since 1860. However it’s not perfect since there has been two instances in which his model failed by a wide margin:

While developing the keys, Lichtman retrospectively applied them to every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980.
Republican President Theodore Roosevelt's election in 1904 is the only occasion where all 13 keys were true for the incumbent party, while the elections of 1876 and 1960 both had nine false keys against the incumbent party (the Republicans in both years): there were also nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans in 2008, an election the keys predicted prospectively.
In 29 of the 31 elections, the keys corresponded with the elected president,with the exceptions being:
In 1876, when there were nine false keys against the incumbent Republicans, indicating the defeat of Republican nominee Rutherford B. Hayes: Democratic nominee Samuel J. Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, but an Electoral Commission declared Hayes the winner of the Electoral College by a single vote in a disputed election, and Hayes was therefore elected president.

In 1888, when there were five false keys against the incumbent Democrats, indicating the re-election of Democratic President Grover Cleveland: Cleveland won the popular vote, but Republican nominee Benjamin Harrison won the Electoral College and was therefore elected president.

So yeah it’s not foolproof but I still think it has some interesting concepts to analyze behind each “key” and how important certain factors are to win an election.

I could see 2024 being a case where once again KH wins by popular vote but gets Trumped by the electoral college.

Lichtman was melting down for a solid week about the disaster that would befall Democrats if Biden dropped off the ticket. I think he’s now just playing catchup, doesn’t want to be left out. He’s kind of a doofus. But I hope he’s right (now).

https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

the 2000 election was decided by Palm Beach ballot design choices, which was probably not one of the 13 keys. his tone of absolute confidence about predicting future events is annoying.

also like everyone itt I hope his current prediction is correct!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HU-MGQksnZ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3b4Jg8K5L0

the 2000 election was decided by Palm Beach ballot design choices

I've been thinking about New Hampshire's results and how ~8000 third-party votes there decided that election.