US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

(xposts) If you haven't written off Nate Silver--I don't know why anybody would--that's the single biggest against-argument he makes in a detailed piece about Harris:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-case-for-and-against-kamala-harris

On balance, many more pros than cons.

I don't know why anybody would

Because he's an obnoxious libertarian blowhard?

There are a lot of ordinary Democratic voters who are really pissed about the idea that Biden is getting forced out of the race. Anyone who doesn’t get that is totally, totally fooling themselves. And there are a lot of people fooling themselves. I’m pretty confident that is manageable if that happens. But it needs to be managed. The key thing is Biden embracing it and credibly embracing it. The other critical part is Kamala Harris being the next choice.

i think there are good arguments for harris but “it has to be her to honor the 25% of democratic voters who still don’t think biden shouldn’t drop out” isn’t one of them. those people have zero leverage, will vote for the democratic candidate no matter what

imo the issue of who becomes the nominee is mostly up to joe biden. delegates pledged to him were specifically chosen for their loyalty to him, and will probably vote for anyone he tells them to

i doubt biden is going to say “i got forced out” and throw a tantrum leaving everything in chaos. he’s gonna make some statement that is both geared to him saving face and strategically setting up the successor. i think it’s most likely he will pick harris, but if he picked whitmer-shapiro or whatever most people would fall in line behind that too

(xpost) He didn't use to be, but I did lose track of him. The piece, though, seems very rational to me.

thing that worries me about harris is she stunk it up in the primary came in with a lot of good will and institutional backing and basically couldnt motivate a single person to vote for her, thats the good thing about having a primary at least you know the winner of it can win a primary

― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 July 2024 2:42 PM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i totally agree, but the recent clips of her speaking that i’ve seen are actually pretty good. part of that might be that the bar has been lowered considerably lol but i’ve seen other people saying she’s improved too

Can't wait for the announcement when he steps aside and implores everyone to cast their vote for Vice President Trump.

NEW: We found senator J.D. Vance's public Venmo account. It gives an unfiltered glimpse into his extensive network of connections with establishment GOP heavyweights, wealthy financiers, technology executives, and even the architects of Project 2025.https://t.co/xWWQGsVmbP

— Dhruv Mehrotra (@dmehro) July 18, 2024

(xpost) Who he might just refer to as the white guy.

I think part of Harris's issue in the primary is that she didn't know how to position herself to the broader Democratic electorate and within the pool of Democratic candidates, especially since (as Elaina Plott Calabro said in her interview with Ezra Klein a couple of weeks ago) she was used to running as a "tough on crime" prosecutor, and there was less appetite for that among Dem primary voters in 2019-20. Feel like that would be less of an issue in a general election because she can just be the main Democratic voice against Trump.

idk how serious this is but apparently ppl are touting Tim Walz as a Harris VP pick

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2024/07/minnesotas-walz-as-vp-the-odds-arent-zero-as-biden-struggles-to-prove-his-electability/

good quote from that Silver piece: If she’s likely to take over at some point, why not just nominate her in the first place?

For a guy who thinks about elections as much as a Silver does, that's a hilariously stupid question

she can just be the main Democratic voice against Trump

she can also speak the word 'a-bor-tion' which Biden is incapable of

kinda think having an open convention would be cool, might get people interested in democracy, except those freaks would prob nominate tim kaine

Calabro also said that Kamala is similar to Hillary in the gap between their public and private personas, like they can be funny and charismatic in private settings but then overly cautious and stiff in public. That's probably still a concern, but I think the bar is lower in terms of what people want out of a candidate right now.

i think part of the problem is dem party operatives have no idea what the words funny and charismatic mean

There was a bit more to that point: "Since voters know that Biden might not make it through a second term, any electoral liabilities involving Harris are liabilities you’re getting anyway by asking voters to choose the Biden-Harris ticket. If she’s likely to take over at some point, why not just nominate her in the first place?"

That seems like a reasonable argument to me.

Kamala is a lot more at ease than Hillary is imo, she's definitely better at least now than she had been in 2020. considering everything, one has to imagine she has worked on that skill set ever since she became VP because there was the real possibility she'd be running this year if Biden had truly chosen to only stick around for one term.

weve got one data point on harris in national elections and its a big L dont think theres much more to figure out as far as that goes

An interesting Bluesky thread:

Marshall has way better sources than I do so this may be happening. I remain concerned that changing nominees does far more damage than good. Also, would take extraordinary coordination by Dems, donors, and media operations. I don’t think the thumb sucking babies behind this push are capable of it.

I mean, you can’t credibly poll on this. Word would leak and now you have Harris polling on a coup to unseat Biden or like he has lost his own campaign’s confidence and then he can make no other decision than to step aside, but can’t do it in a dignified way that preserves the campaign’s strength.

So you go in blind. And even if you *had* polling, it means very little. This has never happened before, so who knows how anyone reacts really. What people *say* they’d do in polls is often not what really happens. Not that people lie, they just really don’t know!

For all that this is a large donor revolt, those asses leak to the press so much that you cannot even subtly pull those folks aside and ask what they might do if maybe somehow some day this and that might possibly transpire. It’d be all over every paper in 3 seconds. See above re: undignified.

And the there’s no guarantee that the media attacks stop. If you concede weakness and take him off the ticket, how can you still assert that Biden is fit to remain as President? (I think he can do both, btw). The same stories will hit. But because of Our Dumb Constitution he can’t resign!

He could maybe take the out of writing a 25A letter so Harris serves as Acting President until his COVID clears up or something else, and she can still preside over the Senate (and EC count), but now this news cycle never really dies down.

But maybe it just never dies down! What I wish is that people settled down after the debate, decided Trump was a fascist and Project 2025 a perfect way for Dems to campaign without leaning on the White House nominee if they don’t want to, and just pack the story away. But that isn’t happening.

As Marshall says, whatever happens next will require immense coordination and have to be handled with exquisite delicacy to keep the campaign on track. Nothing about this last month makes me think the folks at the center of it can handle that. So I really wish we wouldn’t go down that road.

that's a hilariously stupid question

I think it was hypothetical, that there are some voters who believe Biden couldn't finish a four year term and this might work in her favor

Dem operatives are as unfunny as you can imagine

xp what clemenza said ^^^^^^

also kamala hasnt gotten better her public appliances have been the subject of mockery shes pretty weird says nonsensical shit then clasps her hands in a unifying manner

That Harris article with the "fweedom" anecdote has me spooked. Reminds me of Eric Adams.

everyone jokes that shes on pills

it does seem like she's better but i've also only really seen her in comfort zone type appearances with a sympathetic audience, which are a different type of thing entirely to a high stakes campaign, and this would be the highest stakes of all time with the pressure completely on her.

i dont love it tho tbf being able to walk down stairs with confidence may be all thats necessary to beat trump

I also think it can't really be anyone else but her.

i mean if theres someone whos good at politics they should do that, tho im not sure how you figure that out

there was so much time to figure this out, i think there has been for years a lack of confidence in the democratic party's ability to play the game, and i kind of thought we'd already seen the most glaring evidence of that, but the way this has unfolded is really a historically remarkable low.

My Trumpy sister calls her Cameltoe Harris :(((

If she can take a drink of water holding the glass with just one hand, she'll take this all the way

Criminal justice people are strange.

"criminal justice" as a whole "field" is totally pseud imo

but being a da / cop > a credit card vampire imho

tough call

First two ILX mentions of Kamala Harris:

There are no sexy politicians, though San Francisco's District Attorney Kamala Harris may come close:

https://web.archive.org/web/20080917164721if_/http://www.lbl.gov/Publications/Currents/Archive/view-assets/Feb-18-2005/XBD200502-00032-08.jpg

― andy --, Wednesday, November 23, 2005 12:25 PM (eighteen years ago) bookmarkflaglink

kamala harris is running for AG, she is awful. newsom is a douche but seems particularly suited to the douchey job of junior fake governor of nothing

― akm, Thursday, May 6, 2010 1:41 PM (fourteen years ago) bookmarkflaglink

(ha, that was me.. embarrassing)

"criminal justice" as a whole "field" is totally pseud imo

― he/him hoo-hah (map), Thursday, July 18, 2024

bro, don't get me started on business majors

xp I wondered!

Kamamentum!

Do people realize that a Harris-Shapiro victory would mean the First Gentleman, the VP, and the Second Lady are all Jewish? I sense insufficient excitement around this prospect. 3 out of 4!!!

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) July 18, 2024

Mexio's new lady president is Jewish too!

Shouldn’t we be celebrating that Vance’s wife is Hindu? Representation!

In terms of Harris' weakness, they're real and will be evident to some degree if she's the nominee. We're in a not-ideal situation and won't get an ideal candidate no matter what. The time and way to get the best ticket was an open primary, but that was foreclosed by Biden running, so here we are.

My biggest irritation with Biden defenders at this point is that they see all of this as something being done to him, rather than something he caused.

xp

lol a conservative friend texted me that there was no way anyone could call Vance racist because his wife is Indian. I was like, that's not how racism works ... (also, I've known some super-racist Indians!)

kid rock is introducing donald trump tonight. just so you don't miss it.

lol a conservative friend texted me that there was no way anyone could call Vance racist because his wife is Indian. I was like, that's not how racism works

to a lot of people, that IS how it works. i got into a horrible argument in the middle of the street with a neighbor a couple years ago in chicago because he kept shouting extremely offensive things about gay and queer people, including my partner at the time, and my window was open and i heard it so i went out and told him to stfu. one of his many explanations for his behavior was that his son was gay

A person who'd say that about Vance's wife knows nothing about aspects of Indian culture.

everybody's still influenced by the Eminem - Elton John SEE I'M NOT A HOMOPHOBE performance

ha Jamie Raskin wrote a letter to Biden using the exact tired-pitcher analogy I used way upthread (also dragging in poor Pedro Martinez, just a knife in my BoSox-supporting heart):

But the crux of the letter is a four-paragraph metaphor comparing the president to the Boston Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martínez, a Hall of Famer who was left on the mound for the eighth inning of Game Seven of the 2003 American League Championship Series despite being tired. Mr. Martínez allowed three runs, tying the game before the Yankees won with a walk-off home run in the 11th inning that denied the Red Sox a trip to the World Series, which they had not won in 85 years.

“There is no shame in taking a well-deserved bow to the overflowing appreciation of the crowd when your arm is tired out, and there is real danger for the team in ignoring the statistics,” Mr. Raskin writes. “Your situation is tricky because you are both our star pitcher and our manager. But in democracy, as you have shown us more than any prior president, you are not a manager acting all alone; you are the co-manager along with our great team and our great people. Caucus with the team, Mr. President. Hear them out. You will make the right decision.”