US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

A living candidate with any energy whatsoever will do better and bring a lot of people out of the woodwork

lol @ jaymc's post

when you propose no rent

New Biden ad just dropped

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRdclOT6FDOw6tELsZUSgi3b6enp8lN3TAtbQ&usqp=CAU

so is Andy Beshear the front-runner for VP if this happens?

Josh Marshall:

I hope the leaders have given some good thought to what Kamala Harris’ campaign will look like and how it will do. That’s not at all doubting how she’ll do. It’s just a reflection of the fact that this is a really big decision. But don’t assume that they have hidden knowledge that you or I don’t. This is fundamentally a guess that Harris will do better. An educated guess. But it’s still a leap into the unknown which sets aside a lot of really basic assumptions about how you win the presidency. And while I said I’m agnostic on who the candidate should be, I don’t think it can be anyone besides Joe Biden or Kamala Harris for reasons I’ve said before. I definitely think Harris can win. And I think there are various ways her selection can be a big shot in the arm for Democrats. The last three weeks of paralysis have been devastating and everyone wants to move past this. It won’t be the same campaign. There are slivers of the electorate that Biden has access to which I don’t think Harris does. But I think it goes the other way too. Harris can get to places Biden couldn’t. So it’s a different kind of campaign. It’s probably one where the southern tier states come a bit more into view and the blue wall states a touch less. There are lots of potential upsides and downsides. And everyone has to accept that range of possibilities and throw themselves into making it happen.

Final note. There are a lot of ordinary Democratic voters who are really pissed about the idea that Biden is getting forced out of the race. Anyone who doesn’t get that is totally, totally fooling themselves. And there are a lot of people fooling themselves. I’m pretty confident that is manageable if that happens. But it needs to be managed. The key thing is Biden embracing it and credibly embracing it. The other critical part is Kamala Harris being the next choice. And more generally it has to be done with a lot of smarts and grace to honor Biden’s presidency and not give anyone any sense that he’s being tossed aside or treated in an undignified way. We already had a primary process. Democratic voters chose Joe Biden. You only set that aside in the most extraordinary situations. And only Biden himself has the standing to do that and make it work and have Democrats accept it.

Beshear or Shapiro maybe?

Ben Shapiro? Bold choice.

I think Marshall's points are mostly sound, except I get irritated by anyone putting weight on "Democratic voters chose Biden" because come on. He's definitely right that there are some voters who will feel like it's all been an inside elite job — was just talking on FB with a woman I know who was like "I don't know ANYONE who thinks he should drop out, this is all being driven by corporate donors" etc etc.

So yeah, it's politically complex and there's plenty of reason to expect it wouldn't all be handled smoothly or gracefully, there's lots of opportunities to continue shooting themselves in the feet. And how Biden himself presented it would be pretty crucial. A lot of that has to do with everybody's ability to actually act like this is bigger than any one candidate, it's about presenting a compelling vision for the country to counter Trumpism, all of that.

We can't/shouldn't assume anything about how well any of it will go if they switch candidates. So it's just a matter of what assumptions anyone makes about what happens if they don't.

And if Biden says something like 'I'm just a phone call away, I'll be there to support (insert name) through the campaign and their time in office as much as I can', i.e. play the elder statesman/advisor role, that might allay some hesistantcy

BOMBSHELL

― the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, July 18, 2024 10:21 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Word to your moms, etc

Someone made the point earlier in the thread that if Biden lost, Harris wouldn't really be viable in 2028, that the party would want to make a clear break with anyone Biden-related. I think that's right--so now is not just Harris's best opportunity, it's probably her only one.

Bring it home for Joe, obvs.

if Harris was the nominee, you know that Trump wouldn't be able to help himself from calling her a 'nasty woman' or something like that, thus alienating 50% of the electorate

H Clinton soundly won the popular vote, let's remember

misogyny is accepted by a extremely large number of voters, not even just those with an R in front of their name. really fucking sad :(

if I was Republicans I'd be more worried about a racial slur

(and even then...."I'm still voting for the racist" would be a thing)

Trump reportedly not attending funeral of Corey Comperatore on Friday.

because, like, he doesn't wanna.

Harris is becoming decreasingly isolated by the minute.

funerals are for suckers and losers

You think he's going back to that town?

I prefer followers who are immortal

“He cares so much about us”

thing that worries me about harris is she stunk it up in the primary came in with a lot of good will and institutional backing and basically couldnt motivate a single person to vote for her, thats the good thing about having a primary at least you know the winner of it can win a primary

I bet they held that funeral til Friday specifically so he might attend after the RNC.

"no, no, I'm not going to start proceedings just yet. he gave his word. just another 15 minutes"

"it's 2 am"

"I have faith"

(xposts) If you haven't written off Nate Silver--I don't know why anybody would--that's the single biggest against-argument he makes in a detailed piece about Harris:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-case-for-and-against-kamala-harris

On balance, many more pros than cons.

I don't know why anybody would

Because he's an obnoxious libertarian blowhard?

There are a lot of ordinary Democratic voters who are really pissed about the idea that Biden is getting forced out of the race. Anyone who doesn’t get that is totally, totally fooling themselves. And there are a lot of people fooling themselves. I’m pretty confident that is manageable if that happens. But it needs to be managed. The key thing is Biden embracing it and credibly embracing it. The other critical part is Kamala Harris being the next choice.

i think there are good arguments for harris but “it has to be her to honor the 25% of democratic voters who still don’t think biden shouldn’t drop out” isn’t one of them. those people have zero leverage, will vote for the democratic candidate no matter what

imo the issue of who becomes the nominee is mostly up to joe biden. delegates pledged to him were specifically chosen for their loyalty to him, and will probably vote for anyone he tells them to

i doubt biden is going to say “i got forced out” and throw a tantrum leaving everything in chaos. he’s gonna make some statement that is both geared to him saving face and strategically setting up the successor. i think it’s most likely he will pick harris, but if he picked whitmer-shapiro or whatever most people would fall in line behind that too

(xpost) He didn't use to be, but I did lose track of him. The piece, though, seems very rational to me.

thing that worries me about harris is she stunk it up in the primary came in with a lot of good will and institutional backing and basically couldnt motivate a single person to vote for her, thats the good thing about having a primary at least you know the winner of it can win a primary

― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 July 2024 2:42 PM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i totally agree, but the recent clips of her speaking that i’ve seen are actually pretty good. part of that might be that the bar has been lowered considerably lol but i’ve seen other people saying she’s improved too

Can't wait for the announcement when he steps aside and implores everyone to cast their vote for Vice President Trump.

NEW: We found senator J.D. Vance's public Venmo account. It gives an unfiltered glimpse into his extensive network of connections with establishment GOP heavyweights, wealthy financiers, technology executives, and even the architects of Project 2025.https://t.co/xWWQGsVmbP

— Dhruv Mehrotra (@dmehro) July 18, 2024

(xpost) Who he might just refer to as the white guy.

I think part of Harris's issue in the primary is that she didn't know how to position herself to the broader Democratic electorate and within the pool of Democratic candidates, especially since (as Elaina Plott Calabro said in her interview with Ezra Klein a couple of weeks ago) she was used to running as a "tough on crime" prosecutor, and there was less appetite for that among Dem primary voters in 2019-20. Feel like that would be less of an issue in a general election because she can just be the main Democratic voice against Trump.

idk how serious this is but apparently ppl are touting Tim Walz as a Harris VP pick

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2024/07/minnesotas-walz-as-vp-the-odds-arent-zero-as-biden-struggles-to-prove-his-electability/

good quote from that Silver piece: If she’s likely to take over at some point, why not just nominate her in the first place?

For a guy who thinks about elections as much as a Silver does, that's a hilariously stupid question

she can just be the main Democratic voice against Trump

she can also speak the word 'a-bor-tion' which Biden is incapable of

kinda think having an open convention would be cool, might get people interested in democracy, except those freaks would prob nominate tim kaine

Calabro also said that Kamala is similar to Hillary in the gap between their public and private personas, like they can be funny and charismatic in private settings but then overly cautious and stiff in public. That's probably still a concern, but I think the bar is lower in terms of what people want out of a candidate right now.

i think part of the problem is dem party operatives have no idea what the words funny and charismatic mean

There was a bit more to that point: "Since voters know that Biden might not make it through a second term, any electoral liabilities involving Harris are liabilities you’re getting anyway by asking voters to choose the Biden-Harris ticket. If she’s likely to take over at some point, why not just nominate her in the first place?"

That seems like a reasonable argument to me.

Kamala is a lot more at ease than Hillary is imo, she's definitely better at least now than she had been in 2020. considering everything, one has to imagine she has worked on that skill set ever since she became VP because there was the real possibility she'd be running this year if Biden had truly chosen to only stick around for one term.

weve got one data point on harris in national elections and its a big L dont think theres much more to figure out as far as that goes

An interesting Bluesky thread:

Marshall has way better sources than I do so this may be happening. I remain concerned that changing nominees does far more damage than good. Also, would take extraordinary coordination by Dems, donors, and media operations. I don’t think the thumb sucking babies behind this push are capable of it.

I mean, you can’t credibly poll on this. Word would leak and now you have Harris polling on a coup to unseat Biden or like he has lost his own campaign’s confidence and then he can make no other decision than to step aside, but can’t do it in a dignified way that preserves the campaign’s strength.

So you go in blind. And even if you *had* polling, it means very little. This has never happened before, so who knows how anyone reacts really. What people *say* they’d do in polls is often not what really happens. Not that people lie, they just really don’t know!

For all that this is a large donor revolt, those asses leak to the press so much that you cannot even subtly pull those folks aside and ask what they might do if maybe somehow some day this and that might possibly transpire. It’d be all over every paper in 3 seconds. See above re: undignified.

And the there’s no guarantee that the media attacks stop. If you concede weakness and take him off the ticket, how can you still assert that Biden is fit to remain as President? (I think he can do both, btw). The same stories will hit. But because of Our Dumb Constitution he can’t resign!

He could maybe take the out of writing a 25A letter so Harris serves as Acting President until his COVID clears up or something else, and she can still preside over the Senate (and EC count), but now this news cycle never really dies down.

But maybe it just never dies down! What I wish is that people settled down after the debate, decided Trump was a fascist and Project 2025 a perfect way for Dems to campaign without leaning on the White House nominee if they don’t want to, and just pack the story away. But that isn’t happening.

As Marshall says, whatever happens next will require immense coordination and have to be handled with exquisite delicacy to keep the campaign on track. Nothing about this last month makes me think the folks at the center of it can handle that. So I really wish we wouldn’t go down that road.

that's a hilariously stupid question

I think it was hypothetical, that there are some voters who believe Biden couldn't finish a four year term and this might work in her favor

Dem operatives are as unfunny as you can imagine

xp what clemenza said ^^^^^^

also kamala hasnt gotten better her public appliances have been the subject of mockery shes pretty weird says nonsensical shit then clasps her hands in a unifying manner

That Harris article with the "fweedom" anecdote has me spooked. Reminds me of Eric Adams.

everyone jokes that shes on pills