US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

Now, look.

Here's the deal, folx - that’s number one here’s number two

Re: that poll... so it could be a sea lion (D) as long as he's under 80

The headline that just had to be.

https://i.postimg.cc/Gh3Nxjcj/isolated.jpg

it is truly joever

I've made no bones about the fact that I think Biden has gotten a bit of a raw deal, but it seems almost impossible to image him forging ahead with a campaign while reports circulate that the most prominent Dems (Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, now Obama) think he should get out.

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 18, 2024

rip big man

holy shit the increasingly isolated tables have turned

"Younger Democrat, you say?"

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/7y91es0rBB9ZfyH9Ji8TpA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTk2MA--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/aol_gannett_aggregated_707/4788327a6c089b3210db6d8a558915cd

Been thinking about the famous story of Goldwater and a few others visiting Nixon to get him to resign. Not sure if it's all 100% accurate, but it seems more or less credible.

I think there are two, maybe three people who could do that with Biden (I do think Harris replacing him is the best course of action, whatever current polling says). Jill Biden is obviously one. Also, I think, Obama (or the Obamas together).

― clemenza, Friday, June 28, 2024 1:54 PM (two weeks ago)

One last domino to fall, except that one's not even necessary anymore.

If Biden wanted to stay in, he'd be impenetrable, thanks to liberal leaders and the Congressional Black Caucus. But his closest friends believe he's fought the good fight and will succumb to reality.

impenetrable

"succumb to reality" for August 2024 thread title plz

Please don’t penetrate Biden he’s fragile

when biden gets out of isolation he should take a helicopter to the white house, march up to the balcony for the tv cameras, rip off his mask like an anti-science action hero and pull a piece of paper out of his mouth with the name of the next democratic presidential candidate on there

lol

i was definitely not voting this time around but if they actually get him to drop out and they nominate harris i probably will. look i'm a bernie guy i'm just saying harris gives me some motivation. i live in a highly inconsequential state ftr.

P

If it's Harris a rouser of an acceptance speech listing their accomplishment would for sure lnocknthe lethargy outta me.

A living candidate with any energy whatsoever will do better and bring a lot of people out of the woodwork

lol @ jaymc's post

when you propose no rent

New Biden ad just dropped

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRdclOT6FDOw6tELsZUSgi3b6enp8lN3TAtbQ&usqp=CAU

so is Andy Beshear the front-runner for VP if this happens?

Josh Marshall:

I hope the leaders have given some good thought to what Kamala Harris’ campaign will look like and how it will do. That’s not at all doubting how she’ll do. It’s just a reflection of the fact that this is a really big decision. But don’t assume that they have hidden knowledge that you or I don’t. This is fundamentally a guess that Harris will do better. An educated guess. But it’s still a leap into the unknown which sets aside a lot of really basic assumptions about how you win the presidency. And while I said I’m agnostic on who the candidate should be, I don’t think it can be anyone besides Joe Biden or Kamala Harris for reasons I’ve said before. I definitely think Harris can win. And I think there are various ways her selection can be a big shot in the arm for Democrats. The last three weeks of paralysis have been devastating and everyone wants to move past this. It won’t be the same campaign. There are slivers of the electorate that Biden has access to which I don’t think Harris does. But I think it goes the other way too. Harris can get to places Biden couldn’t. So it’s a different kind of campaign. It’s probably one where the southern tier states come a bit more into view and the blue wall states a touch less. There are lots of potential upsides and downsides. And everyone has to accept that range of possibilities and throw themselves into making it happen.

Final note. There are a lot of ordinary Democratic voters who are really pissed about the idea that Biden is getting forced out of the race. Anyone who doesn’t get that is totally, totally fooling themselves. And there are a lot of people fooling themselves. I’m pretty confident that is manageable if that happens. But it needs to be managed. The key thing is Biden embracing it and credibly embracing it. The other critical part is Kamala Harris being the next choice. And more generally it has to be done with a lot of smarts and grace to honor Biden’s presidency and not give anyone any sense that he’s being tossed aside or treated in an undignified way. We already had a primary process. Democratic voters chose Joe Biden. You only set that aside in the most extraordinary situations. And only Biden himself has the standing to do that and make it work and have Democrats accept it.

Beshear or Shapiro maybe?

Ben Shapiro? Bold choice.

I think Marshall's points are mostly sound, except I get irritated by anyone putting weight on "Democratic voters chose Biden" because come on. He's definitely right that there are some voters who will feel like it's all been an inside elite job — was just talking on FB with a woman I know who was like "I don't know ANYONE who thinks he should drop out, this is all being driven by corporate donors" etc etc.

So yeah, it's politically complex and there's plenty of reason to expect it wouldn't all be handled smoothly or gracefully, there's lots of opportunities to continue shooting themselves in the feet. And how Biden himself presented it would be pretty crucial. A lot of that has to do with everybody's ability to actually act like this is bigger than any one candidate, it's about presenting a compelling vision for the country to counter Trumpism, all of that.

We can't/shouldn't assume anything about how well any of it will go if they switch candidates. So it's just a matter of what assumptions anyone makes about what happens if they don't.

And if Biden says something like 'I'm just a phone call away, I'll be there to support (insert name) through the campaign and their time in office as much as I can', i.e. play the elder statesman/advisor role, that might allay some hesistantcy

BOMBSHELL

― the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, July 18, 2024 10:21 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Word to your moms, etc

Someone made the point earlier in the thread that if Biden lost, Harris wouldn't really be viable in 2028, that the party would want to make a clear break with anyone Biden-related. I think that's right--so now is not just Harris's best opportunity, it's probably her only one.

Bring it home for Joe, obvs.

if Harris was the nominee, you know that Trump wouldn't be able to help himself from calling her a 'nasty woman' or something like that, thus alienating 50% of the electorate

H Clinton soundly won the popular vote, let's remember

misogyny is accepted by a extremely large number of voters, not even just those with an R in front of their name. really fucking sad :(

if I was Republicans I'd be more worried about a racial slur

(and even then...."I'm still voting for the racist" would be a thing)

Trump reportedly not attending funeral of Corey Comperatore on Friday.

because, like, he doesn't wanna.

Harris is becoming decreasingly isolated by the minute.

funerals are for suckers and losers

You think he's going back to that town?

I prefer followers who are immortal

“He cares so much about us”

thing that worries me about harris is she stunk it up in the primary came in with a lot of good will and institutional backing and basically couldnt motivate a single person to vote for her, thats the good thing about having a primary at least you know the winner of it can win a primary

I bet they held that funeral til Friday specifically so he might attend after the RNC.

"no, no, I'm not going to start proceedings just yet. he gave his word. just another 15 minutes"

"it's 2 am"

"I have faith"

(xposts) If you haven't written off Nate Silver--I don't know why anybody would--that's the single biggest against-argument he makes in a detailed piece about Harris:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-case-for-and-against-kamala-harris

On balance, many more pros than cons.

I don't know why anybody would

Because he's an obnoxious libertarian blowhard?

There are a lot of ordinary Democratic voters who are really pissed about the idea that Biden is getting forced out of the race. Anyone who doesn’t get that is totally, totally fooling themselves. And there are a lot of people fooling themselves. I’m pretty confident that is manageable if that happens. But it needs to be managed. The key thing is Biden embracing it and credibly embracing it. The other critical part is Kamala Harris being the next choice.

i think there are good arguments for harris but “it has to be her to honor the 25% of democratic voters who still don’t think biden shouldn’t drop out” isn’t one of them. those people have zero leverage, will vote for the democratic candidate no matter what

imo the issue of who becomes the nominee is mostly up to joe biden. delegates pledged to him were specifically chosen for their loyalty to him, and will probably vote for anyone he tells them to

i doubt biden is going to say “i got forced out” and throw a tantrum leaving everything in chaos. he’s gonna make some statement that is both geared to him saving face and strategically setting up the successor. i think it’s most likely he will pick harris, but if he picked whitmer-shapiro or whatever most people would fall in line behind that too

(xpost) He didn't use to be, but I did lose track of him. The piece, though, seems very rational to me.

thing that worries me about harris is she stunk it up in the primary came in with a lot of good will and institutional backing and basically couldnt motivate a single person to vote for her, thats the good thing about having a primary at least you know the winner of it can win a primary

― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 July 2024 2:42 PM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i totally agree, but the recent clips of her speaking that i’ve seen are actually pretty good. part of that might be that the bar has been lowered considerably lol but i’ve seen other people saying she’s improved too

Can't wait for the announcement when he steps aside and implores everyone to cast their vote for Vice President Trump.

NEW: We found senator J.D. Vance's public Venmo account. It gives an unfiltered glimpse into his extensive network of connections with establishment GOP heavyweights, wealthy financiers, technology executives, and even the architects of Project 2025.https://t.co/xWWQGsVmbP

— Dhruv Mehrotra (@dmehro) July 18, 2024

(xpost) Who he might just refer to as the white guy.

I think part of Harris's issue in the primary is that she didn't know how to position herself to the broader Democratic electorate and within the pool of Democratic candidates, especially since (as Elaina Plott Calabro said in her interview with Ezra Klein a couple of weeks ago) she was used to running as a "tough on crime" prosecutor, and there was less appetite for that among Dem primary voters in 2019-20. Feel like that would be less of an issue in a general election because she can just be the main Democratic voice against Trump.

idk how serious this is but apparently ppl are touting Tim Walz as a Harris VP pick

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2024/07/minnesotas-walz-as-vp-the-odds-arent-zero-as-biden-struggles-to-prove-his-electability/