US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

not giving a fuck when you get older seems to be a common theme i see in seniors.

I'm in a coffee shop and an elderly guy's phone just rang. He put it on speaker. A woman asked "Where are you?" He says, "I'm at Starbucks." She asks "Why? I'm at the bistro." And he replies with some irritation, after a pause of confusion, that he wants his Starbucks first. My parents were both also this way in their early 80s: a bit irritated and defensive that what they say is not just respected and good enough.

I understand why Biden's mad, I feel like it's kind of a huge fucking miracle we came out of post-pandemic without having a huge fucking recession and he looks around and 75% of Americans think their groceries cost double what they used to and that we're in the middle of an immigrant-driven murder wave, it's gotta be incredibly frustrating

And he probably is correct to feel that if he hadn't had his worst night on the national stage at the debate, the race would still be more or less tied and nobody would even be talking about him dropping out

But it's also true that what happened happened and fair or not he's in the political situation he's in.

The other question that I feel like I have to wonder is -- what if Harris, Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, whoever, actually *don't want* to run? Maybe all of them think they'll be better off running in 2028. And you know what, I almost hope that's the case, because it means they are more optimistic than I am about how corrosive to the actual democratic mechanism a second Trump administration would be.

Good luck getting an honest answer out of any of those guys though. "Hey Kamala, do you want me to step aside so you can be the nominee?" "Oh no, Joe. You are the best. You're the only one who can win."

The other question that I feel like I have to wonder is -- what if Harris, Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, whoever, actually *don't want* to run?

Been wondering the same thing.

I think Harris is kind of done if she doesn't run this time. People aren't really going to want a reminder of the Biden admin after he loses big time.

xxpost "but i will if you wanted me to"

"I'll drop out if I found out perhaps you wanted me to. but only if you want me to."

"I'm ok, I think you've got it. but if you were thinking of dropping out, of course I'd support it."

"right, no i'm good. but you know, if you told me you wanted to run instead, you know, i might could be convinced"

"nah i think you are the best candidate. but...you know...if this was something that REALLY you didn't want to do and you wanted an out and you were just afraid to say so, you know...I'm here"

If I was Whitmer or Newsom I wouldn't want to run now. They haven't had nearly enough time to create an impression of themselves nationally, and interviews on Sunday morning talk shows don't count. They need to spend the next four years shining a spotlight on themselves, no matter who's president. And sadly, if they can set themselves up as forces of resistance to Republican evil, it'll be very helpful for brand-building.

At the RNC three different sets of event staff have come over to our section of the convention floor (fairly empty) to try to get us to move over to where I point in this video, to fill it out so it looks better on camera

Worth noting how empty the arena really is pic.twitter.com/mNsUIjmayi

— Robert Evans (The Only Robert Evans) (@IwriteOK) July 15, 2024

People aren't really going to want a reminder of the Biden admin after he loses big time

yeah, there never was a President Quayle

Actually, Dan Quayle is actually younger than Trump or Biden lol

fake news the convention is sold out but some people wore blue suits that look like seats

xp why stop there, so's bill clinton, a figure from an unimaginably distant past

RNC Convention has a thing for empty chairs.

We could definitely be nostalgic for the Biden term as a stopgap between four years of Trump and 40 years of President Vance.

I mean, deputizing federal troops to round up and deport 1 million immigrants a year would be a pretty big deal in and of itself! There are things he could have done or tried to do in his first term but he didn't do because he didn't know he could or he had people around him saying he couldn't. This will be a different and much more aggressive administration.

Now, can they actually DO a lot of this stuff? Just on a logistical basis, a lot of it will be hard even if they navigate or neuter the courts. (e.g. I think deporting 1 million people a year is a total Stephen Miller fantasy. But they can definitely fuck with a whole lot of people.) Plus also see above about how many of these people are opportunists and/or fools. They are not going to sweep in like some well-oiled efficient operation. And everything will remain subject to Trump's whims, too.

But this isn't going to be first-term Trump part 2. It will be different.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra)

it's gonna be different, for sure! and i don't know how it's gonna be different.

i'm just... idk, i'm reminiscing a lot about 2017. about how i felt then, about the things he said. he was going to build, like, a 10 foot wall across the entire united states border! he said that, like, over and over again, and it genuinely seemed like he was gonna do that. and of course he didn't do that, the idea was ridiculous. he made life a lot harder for a lot of people and he made america a lot worse. i remember thinking at the time, you know, he doesn't have to build a _wall_, you just have to make america so shitty that nobody wants to come here

i grossly underestimated how hard it would be to make america so shitty that people wouldn't want to come here

people come here because they _believe in america_, and... and! because that faith _isn't delusional_, unlike the republicans' faith in trump. they make great sacrifices, they work really hard, they go through great risk to get here, and life is still hard and sucks but life is _better_ in a lot of ways. in america, than it is wherever they came from. i mean any time i hear an immigrant answer why, that's what they say, and i figure they know what they're talking about.

to me, you know, america is a racist shithole filled with shithole racists and i mean. it is _better_. oregon fucking sucks, but it's better than indiana. life as an out trans woman is fucking awful, but it's better than gender dysphoria. i've spent so long hearing all of these capitalist shitlords talking about "continuous improvement" that the concept is ridiculous to me, the idea that things will get better forever and ever, but i mean, have i worked really hard to make my life better and succeeded? yes. do other people do the same? yes, all the time, and a lot of the time that means coming to america.

deporting 1 million immigrants, having a big round-up, it would suck. it would make a lot of people's life worse for no real reason other than malice. i think that's probably more possible than that fucking wall. he's really good at taking the lives of people who already have it pretty hard and making their lives harder.

and INS comes around and sends good people to prison and deports them and, you know, they fucking come back. because it's important to them. america is. why would anybody go to all that trouble just to be an _american_? i was assigned american at birth, and i don't really know. and i'm sure, i'm _sure_, there are a lot of AFABs who look at me and how much trouble i went to in order to be a _woman_ and are just like... why?

i mean we're different in a lot of ways. i don't really _understand_ what it's like to be them, to live that experience. transnational and transgender, they're very different things. the people he goes after, though, i mean, we're just fuckin' trying to exist here. we're just trying to live our lives. and they're going out of their way to make our lives harder and they don't _have to_. i mean "persistence" and "resilience" are buzzwords and it's fucking exhausting, it's fucking tiring to keep at it over and over again, but we're not going to stop trying to live our best lives until we're dead.

of course governments can do that. they can make it happen, systematically. it takes a lot of time, though. a lot of time and _lot of work_. and frankly, on a national level, republicans just haven't done the work. malediction alone just isn't going to get you very far.

fake news the convention is sold out but some people wore blue suits that look like seats

― rick beato meato manifesto (Neanderthal)

oh god! remember when trump tried to claim that he had the biggest turnout for his inaugaration ever, and it was a blatant, bald-faced lie, and everybody knew it, and he kept saying it? everything old is... older. i mean. eight fucking years older.

He also had someone take a sharpie to a hurricane map to cover up his fuck up

In line with politics as wrestling, is there any juice behind Vance as a plotting traitor storyline?

Well, Vance got his senate seat through Thiel's support, so if he's a traitor it's not in a way that's going to help us / the country.

Mark Cuban suggested this:

Part 1
Here is a contrary opinion on the emergence of Silicon Valley support for former President Trump. Which like all my opinions on here, probably won’t be popular.

It’s a bitcoin play.

Not because the former President is a far stronger proponent of crypto. That’s nice.…

— Mark Cuban (@mcuban) July 17, 2024

If I was Whitmer or Newsom I wouldn't want to run now. They haven't had nearly enough time to create an impression of themselves nationally, and interviews on Sunday morning talk shows don't count. They need to spend the next four years shining a spotlight on themselves, no matter who's president. And sadly, if they can set themselves up as forces of resistance to Republican evil, it'll be very helpful for brand-building.

In line with politics as wrestling, is there any juice behind Vance as a plotting traitor storyline?

― Philip Nunez

nah that angle would be a flop in wrestling. like eazy says he'd struggle to sell a face turn, even if he did decide to suplex trump through a table on the inauguration. also, he couldn't do a face turn alone - he'd have to have allies, and at this point, you know... the last time i saw someone pull a stunt like that was, uh. what was that lady's name? her gay husband was a prominent republican and then she was like "lol just trolling" and started a liberal site. huffington! that's where huffpo came from, right? i mean that was pretty successful, i think. but it was the lady who ran the site. i don't know what happened to her gay husband, what happened to him.

I think part of the problem is that the internecine fights within the party keep them from choosing one person.

Also, I shall repeat this every time he is mentioned and I notice it, but Gavin Newsom is an evil sonofabitch with the charisma of a Gordon Gekko, and his ilk is repellent to most people who don't make a lot of money and/or aren't from California. Why he appeals to anyone is beyond my comprehension— he's like a sentient wad of cash covered in grease and cocaine additives

To me (observing as a Canadian) one of the biggest indicators of the Democrats’ addiction to losing is the fact they didn’t spend every second after winning the last election just grooming a superstar for the 2024 one

― It was on a accident (hardcore dilettante)

doing everything they can to avoid being accused of grooming lol

but yeah they not only have put no effort into developing their talent, they're like openly hostile to younger people. like there's _no_ sense of long-term strategy at all. it's something i think of as... boomers don't seem to have spent a lot of time planning for the existence of the world after their deaths. like i never got a sense that they wanted a better future for their children in any _meaningful_ sense. and i guess it kind of makes sense... growing up in the cold war, a lot of people got the idea that the world was going to end, you know, nuclear death or whatever, that they were the last generation. and now it's, i guess, the climate apocalypse. i mean i'm not immune. having kids makes a difference, of course, and i've never been able to have kids, but the idea of leaving a better world for future generations just seems so... i mean, fucking ludicrous.

Yet apparently, according to CNN’s blaring red white and blue RNC coverage, conservatives are excited by tonight’s speakers: Newt Gingrich, back from the dead! Matt Gaetz, forehead bigger than ever! Kimberly Guilfoyle, is there anyone who wants to hear from her?
Greg fucking Abbott. It’s not like the GOP is some storehouse of charisma.

I was legit trying to remember the other day if Gingrich had died at some point. I guess we'll see, huh.

yeah i don't know any of these mooted replacements for biden. newsom's big advantage over whitmer and harris is that he's a white dude. people who belong to "marked" groups in any way are held to _much higher standards_ than someone like newsom, and they'd have more challenges in getting elected, particularly when there's kind of a sense that _anybody_ but biden in 2024 is gonna be thrown under the bus if they lose. and maybe even if they _don't_ lose.

and yeah people liking newsom is... there's a lot about california politics that confuses me. my ex-girlfriend is a californian at heart, and i feel like a lot of californians... have this kind of distorted view of how people outside of california view californians. california's a big, important state. which, paradoxically, can be kind of a liability in terms of national candidates. i mean i didn't trust jerry brown either, though mostly that was because there was a great punk song about him. point is: gavin newsom is... i don't know much about him but in terms of _vibes_ i find him pretty repulsive.

Hard to breed youngish superstars when they're either appealing to the donor class but repellent lizard people (Newsom, Pete Butts) or objectionable to the donor class (AOC, anyone vaguely similar to AOC's political profile).

Also the aged and infirm of the party don't want to give up their death grip on power. There was no grooming a 2024 option because Biden had no intention of not running.

biden has covid?

That won't breed conspiracy theories!

There’s a lot of Covid in DC right now (as I found to my cost on July 4th).

PBS reporting that Arizona RNC delegates are putting bandages on their ears... barf, barf, a thousand times barf

He's gonna leave that bandage on for four months

i'm hoping for a dramatic ear reveal on the RNC stage

He never had an ear

If Trump wins I think the recriminations among Democrats will be the worst I've ever seen, because it seems like of the three options

Biden runs
Harris runs
Somebody other than Biden or Harris runs

There are a LOT of people, maybe even more than half, who think one of those options might work and not only that the other two have an essentially 0% chance of success, but that everybody knows and agrees they have a 0% chance of success, and so if the party chooses one of those options, it's because they are actually trying to lose or at least OK with losing, and how do you keep supporting a party if they're not trying to win?

I guess by the way I phrase this it's clear that I think each of those three options gives the Democrats a chance of winning that's bigger than 0% and less than 50%, and I don't know how to rank them in terms of probability of success, and I also don't think elected Democrats or donors or ordinary voters know how to rank them. I think it's just unknown and unknowable and whatever they do I hope it works. And I am pretty sure that Democrats very badly want to win this election, because, like me, they believe that the costs of losing will be long-lasting, hard to fix, maybe in some cases unfixable.

In the UK, you're only allowed to campaign six months prior to the election? Jeez I wish we had that here

excuse, six WEEKS!

The good news is that if Trump wins we have the possibility of Biden '28

now we're talking

xp I agree, Hunter's got what it takes

RFK Jr. used to be a junky, they can form a unity ticket

Would be funny if Pelosi herself insisted on running.

Pelosi is one of the only people in the game I actually would be willing to say "maybe they should do whatever she thinks best," but who knows, maybe she just had good PR and that's why I think she knows what she's doing

I would rather vote for Pelosi tbrr

If I have to vote for someone of that generation, might as well be the most effective one who still seems to be firing on all cylinders

biden has covid?

― c u (crüt), Wednesday, July 17, 2024 5:08 PM (forty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

and i guess some of these rich assholes have it now, too

🟡 SCOOP: Joe Biden met in Las Vegas with Jeffrey Katzenberg who conveyed a warning: The president’s donors’ patience is wearing thin, and their cash soon will, too.https://t.co/cutzVLfkD2

— Semafor (@semafor) July 17, 2024

i'm hoping for a dramatic ear reveal on the RNC stage

― c u (crüt)

it'll be yukon eric's ear

because politics is wrestling

maybe she just had good PR and that's why I think she knows what she's doing

No, she's actually kind of a political genius and the ultimate whip-cracker

yeah all her incredible political achievements like uh accumulating a nine figure fortune while in office