US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

I think the biggest immediate effect is a super fired up GOP nominating convention. Which in general never hurts, although it's possible they'll say so much crazy violent shit that it will backfire.

feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"? can you imagine yourself in that mindset, about any candidate, anywhere -- "somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?

This is exactly right. I know there are a lot of people in this thread who have "everything is good for Donald Trump" brainworms, but come the fuck on.

Security at the convention is going to be very Robocop

does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"?

yes, many such people exist. particularly the fist bump photo

feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"?

Good question! I think all events change calculations to some degree, the question is by how much, which is more difficult to measure. I think the group this might possible effect isn't necessarily those that weren't going to vote Trump previously - its more likely to be those that are generally either in Trumps camp or adjacent but weren't necessarily going to vote when the day came, that they may be more likely to - ie they may vote harder

if it happened 2 weeks before the election I'd absolutely think this would be the deciding factor but so much crazy shit is gonna happen in the next 14 weeks

"he'll be able to raise more money off this"

tiny bloodied fragments of ear, an ideal gift for your kids and grandkids

yes, many such people exist. particularly the fist bump photo

citation needed for “many”

"feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"? can you imagine yourself in that mindset, about any candidate, anywhere -- "somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?"

This is about undecideds. Does anyone really know what sways one undecided voter to the next? They are kinda fucked up people...

...but I'm looking at one corner and I see one nearly dead guy whereas that one in the red corner is alive and kicking...

Flopson do you know such people in real life? Genuinely curious.

xp Ken Bone people do exist but I don’t know how many of them there are. Also, it’s still a loooooooong time to the election.

Flopson do you know such people in real life? Genuinely curious.

Top Democratic sources believe that Democrats who had thoughts about challenging President Biden are now standing down "because of this fragile political moment," @CostaReports reports.

Concerns about Biden's debate performance "faded almost instantly" after the attempted… pic.twitter.com/ZS5NQAjxpi

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) July 14, 2024

Democrats going into full “apologize for existing” mode.

can we get a registered dem patsy to attempt on brandon too please? in the name of equality, ofc.

"Guys, we definitely shouldn't try to beat him now. He's suffered enough."

chachi’s framing is designed to make it sound maximally implausible—someone who proactively “decided not to vote for trump” suddenly and consciously changing their mind—but that’s just cope. the election wont be determined by people who had firmly made up their minds in july. the fistbump photo in particular will superjuice the vibes, will help turn out of republicans with low propensity to vote, and maybe also help with marginal undecideds. itll also have downstream effects. one of which is it takes the pressure off biden to drop out at a critical juncture when momentum was already flagging. another is some good press and temporary reduced negative attack ads. it’s also gonna make it harder for democrats to make statements about how electing trump spells the end of democracy—one of trumps weakest points—because they’ll immediately pivot to “this is the kind of statement that lead to the assasination attempt”, which will be cynical and sleazy but will still probably work

cool predictions, bro, it's wild how the Canadians know our country better than we do

maybe in a month or so you might have something to cite in your favor, it could happen!

lol, literally just more cope

I do think we'll see things like calling references to Project 2025 "hate speech" and that kinda stuff. Which was already somewhat happening, this will mostly amplify a lot of things that were happening or would happen anyway.

"somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?

as to it changing minds, ok. but what if there is no mind to speak of? yeah i totally think it could persuade someone who’s apolitical and an actual dolt from “theyre all the same eeny-meeny” to “oh trump has that fire.”

not that likely perhaps?

more likely it moves several or tens of thousands of pro-trump non-voters into “fuck yeah ima show up for him” trump voters imo.

yet another uninformed canadian opinion

I certainly know many people (and am related to some of them) who claim to be independent, will weigh each candidate's stance on various important issues and vote for the most qualified yada yada yada. And of course they've never once voted for a Democrat.

sarah kenzior just popped up on my twitter feed for the first time in years. things are about to get good

I do think we'll see things like calling references to Project 2025 "hate speech" and that kinda stuff. Which was already somewhat happening, this will mostly amplify a lot of things that were happening or would happen anyway.

dude you wld always say that tho u need a diff angle here

actually no i don’t. calling Project 2025 what it is and refusing to stop associating it with Trump and his fascist minions is about the only thing the Dems have been doing right this election cycle. fascists don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt— they deserve to be called out and shamed

like, the smartest thing a politician could have tweeted yesterday evening was “Political violence is never acceptable, which is why we must reject Donald Trump’s dark and violent vision for America”

let the MAGAts cry.

I don't think they'll stop hammering on Project 2025, but I do think that's going to become one of the GOP responses (it's a little juicier than the "I don't know her" line they've been taking). Plus also to every single bad thing they say about Trump, it's all "encouraging violence." My Trump-buddy county mayor is already out there tweeting every time he can find that some media outlet compared Trump to Hitler and saying, THIS IS WHAT CAUSED THIS.

more likely it moves several or tens of thousands of pro-trump non-voters into “fuck yeah ima show up for him” trump voters imo.

I read recently that the majority of Jan 6 protestors didn't actually vote in the election itself, which I thought interesting in and of itself

i do v much respect these responses! Xp

well i am about to get some hats printed that say “Hinckley Had a Vision,” anyone want one

lol, literally just more cope

2024 will be the hottest year ever globally, I think we can confidently predict that

November is definitely not a foregone conclusion, so much so quickly and this happening in July and not early October is a big difference. I do agree with table on often feeling like the Democrats deserve to lose, not because I want them to but because the way they strategize and play the political game is so fearful and half-assed and without the courage of their supposed convictions. And moving forward with what they think is the safe choice but is clearly the weakened position.

*so much has happened so quickly

lol yeah yesterday we were talking about the election and it turns out we didn't even know what was going to happen yesterday.

Trump’s Bleedin Ear doesn’t have to sway millions of voters. A handful of voters in a few states are all that matters, a few thousand more Biden voters beset by hopelessness stay home, etc.

Joe is cooked anyway so in the end I’d call this irrelevant but confidently shouting that every undecided voter hates Trump and there can be no further movement in his direction is sticking your head in the sand. We already lived through an election where both candidates were widely despised and Trump won that one.

still can’t get over the fact that aaron rupar skipped the trump rally last night because he was running a few minutes late and wanted to go to an earth, wind, and fire concert with his mom. I mean that’s objectively funny

better choice

what can I say? he's a shining star

Plus also to every single bad thing they say about Trump, it's all "encouraging violence." My Trump-buddy county mayor is already out there tweeting every time he can find that some media outlet compared Trump to Hitler and saying, THIS IS WHAT CAUSED THIS.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Sunday, 14 July 2024 18:38 (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

as well as potentially making the democrats more cautious in attacking Trump, all the major dem figures have had to make respectful statements where they talk about how glad they are that President Trump is unharmed and how they wish him the best, it feels like the tone of that could make some difference, make Trump seem more like a 'normal' politician to swing voters, runs against dem attempts to represent him as beyond the pale?

(not that I think it will change most people's opinion of him, but it's this small number of swing voters who are actually going to decide the election, no?)

i actually think the image of the fist bump is going to redefine his legacy and all but erase his decades of criminalty, misogyny, racism, and self-serving mendacity in the minds of a huge swath of the public. i am not a cynic but images are powerful.

"does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"?"

i think there are people who voted for him in 2016 and then got tired of him and maybe didn't bother voting for him in 2020 who might decide after this...to vote for him again. there were definitely people who got turned off by the january 6th thing and this bullet might actually "trump" that event and make anti-Trump Republicans get in his corner again.

“My Trump-buddy county mayor is already out there tweeting every time he can find that some media outlet compared Trump to Hitler and saying, THIS IS WHAT CAUSED THIS.”

It’s going to be awkward when Trump picks a running mate who compared him to Hitler

I think that's plausible. xpost to scott

i think all the negative trump stuff is going to be memory-holed. even on the nytimes and washington post they will be critical but not in the way they were before.

I think absent any empirical evidence or reasonable historical precedent it’s silly to speculate with any sort of certainty what the effects will be on the race. BUT it just seems overwhelmingly plausible that there are many more paths that favor trump than biden, and we’re already seeing some of the evidence of why, most importantly that it’s probably going to cause biden and the dems to pull their punches. things could always change though

the smart response by Democrats instead of being pathetic soft-serve pearl-clutching is, like tabes correctly said above, avoiding all of that shitty rhetoric and pointing out that Trump's words and actions are literal violence, as well as his own party, and that they created the culture and atmosphere that nearly took him out.

stop fucking apologizing or bloviating and say you're so obsessed with guns and death that you literally did this to yourself by the hands of one of your own, and we don't feel fuckin sorry for you.