US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

He probably shit himself last night, if someone gets those pants to TMZ, it's over

there are going to be huge banners at that convention that are just pictures of his bloody fist-pumping melon head. they're going to try and make it a stamp and put it on the hundred dollar bill when he's president next year.

i thought the official MAGA stance was that pedos deserve to get shot

Its too early to tell but I think surviving an assassination attempt can't be a campaign negative (though there are probably examples to the contrary I can't think of any offhand)

The two attempts on Ford were September 5 and 22, 1975. He lost, but I don't know how that figured into the timeline of the election--he did mount a comeback towards the end.

Here, no idea, there are so many things to factor in, and it's right between two bizarre weeks and the RNC. Makes me think of Andy Warhol's reaction to the JFK assassination as described in the PBS documentary: he returns home, sits on a couch, and keeps repeating "What does this mean?"

No no no, that's only their definition of pedos, which means anyone who isn't straight or cis

they're going to try and make it a stamp and put it on the hundred dollar bill when he's president next year.

It's gonna be a statue installed next to the Washington Monument.

400 feet high!

stuff like this is really helpful:

Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) posted to X that “Joe Biden sent the orders,” garnering over 4 million views, and later called for Biden to face charges for “inciting an assassination.”

Maybe this finally gets RFK Jr to drop out

It sure is funny that this happens a week after everyone jokes that Biden should use his newfound unlimited powers for good.

Obv he didn't but y'know

maybe it gets the other Kennedy goober in Louisiana to resign

dare i say it but was it the day he truly became presidential

at least for once with Trump we don't have to say that something is "unprecedented". total precedent!

feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"? can you imagine yourself in that mindset, about any candidate, anywhere -- "somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?

he'll be able to raise more money off this, no question. that's it. he'll spend that money on legal fees. "this helps his campaign" is not a factor with a candidate like Trump, who does not win over undecideds with or without a bad marksman coming for him.

JCLC otm

Even if this was a false flag (which it wasn't), that would mean they are already thinking they will lose

Both post-shooting statements from Trump have been pretty nonaggressive. I get the sense that following the debate and now especially after this he is trying to hold back on the donaldisms and rather float on Bidens troubles and his own relative image of strength. That also keeps attention away from the trials and other stuff he struggles with. Meanwhile his proxies can beat on Biden and the democrats. Worried it might work. Hopefully he reverts to type.

feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"? can you imagine yourself in that mindset, about any candidate, anywhere -- "somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?

I've been repeating a version of this the last 12 hours to my pants-wetting friends.

I think at the margins it gives a little oomph to running a law and order campaign. Which is always part of the fascist appeal, right? Not a huge impact, but in the same way that we saw Biden‘s debate performance not having a huge impact, I think marginal effects are actually important. Because the election is going to be so marginal anyway.

Also, who the hell knows, we are in crazy territory already and we haven’t even gotten to the conventions yet.

we are in crazy territory already and we haven’t even gotten to the conventions yet.

too true

who knows, someone might try again

The Attempted Assassination of Donald J. Trump Considered as a Race to the Bottom

I would have thought saying "Look at me I survived being shot then look at this doddery old wreck I'm running against" will sway some undecided voters.

I really doubt it, honestly, those people were voting for RFK anyway

I remember people saying that he had faked getting Covid and that he'd win in 2020 from the sympathy bump, which did not make a ton of sense.

I think the biggest immediate effect is a super fired up GOP nominating convention. Which in general never hurts, although it's possible they'll say so much crazy violent shit that it will backfire.

feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"? can you imagine yourself in that mindset, about any candidate, anywhere -- "somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?

This is exactly right. I know there are a lot of people in this thread who have "everything is good for Donald Trump" brainworms, but come the fuck on.

Security at the convention is going to be very Robocop

does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"?

yes, many such people exist. particularly the fist bump photo

feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"?

Good question! I think all events change calculations to some degree, the question is by how much, which is more difficult to measure. I think the group this might possible effect isn't necessarily those that weren't going to vote Trump previously - its more likely to be those that are generally either in Trumps camp or adjacent but weren't necessarily going to vote when the day came, that they may be more likely to - ie they may vote harder

if it happened 2 weeks before the election I'd absolutely think this would be the deciding factor but so much crazy shit is gonna happen in the next 14 weeks

"he'll be able to raise more money off this"

tiny bloodied fragments of ear, an ideal gift for your kids and grandkids

yes, many such people exist. particularly the fist bump photo

citation needed for “many”

"feel like I'm losing my mind. does anybody actually believe somebody who wasn't going to vote for Donald Trump will see that somebody tried to shoot him and then say "oh -- well that changes the calculus for me. Now, I'm certainly going to vote for Donald Trump"? can you imagine yourself in that mindset, about any candidate, anywhere -- "somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?"

This is about undecideds. Does anyone really know what sways one undecided voter to the next? They are kinda fucked up people...

...but I'm looking at one corner and I see one nearly dead guy whereas that one in the red corner is alive and kicking...

Flopson do you know such people in real life? Genuinely curious.

xp Ken Bone people do exist but I don’t know how many of them there are. Also, it’s still a loooooooong time to the election.

Flopson do you know such people in real life? Genuinely curious.

Top Democratic sources believe that Democrats who had thoughts about challenging President Biden are now standing down "because of this fragile political moment," @CostaReports reports.

Concerns about Biden's debate performance "faded almost instantly" after the attempted… pic.twitter.com/ZS5NQAjxpi

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) July 14, 2024

Democrats going into full “apologize for existing” mode.

can we get a registered dem patsy to attempt on brandon too please? in the name of equality, ofc.

"Guys, we definitely shouldn't try to beat him now. He's suffered enough."

chachi’s framing is designed to make it sound maximally implausible—someone who proactively “decided not to vote for trump” suddenly and consciously changing their mind—but that’s just cope. the election wont be determined by people who had firmly made up their minds in july. the fistbump photo in particular will superjuice the vibes, will help turn out of republicans with low propensity to vote, and maybe also help with marginal undecideds. itll also have downstream effects. one of which is it takes the pressure off biden to drop out at a critical juncture when momentum was already flagging. another is some good press and temporary reduced negative attack ads. it’s also gonna make it harder for democrats to make statements about how electing trump spells the end of democracy—one of trumps weakest points—because they’ll immediately pivot to “this is the kind of statement that lead to the assasination attempt”, which will be cynical and sleazy but will still probably work

cool predictions, bro, it's wild how the Canadians know our country better than we do

maybe in a month or so you might have something to cite in your favor, it could happen!

lol, literally just more cope

I do think we'll see things like calling references to Project 2025 "hate speech" and that kinda stuff. Which was already somewhat happening, this will mostly amplify a lot of things that were happening or would happen anyway.

"somebody tried to shoot him. he's got my vote now though he didn't before"?

as to it changing minds, ok. but what if there is no mind to speak of? yeah i totally think it could persuade someone who’s apolitical and an actual dolt from “theyre all the same eeny-meeny” to “oh trump has that fire.”

not that likely perhaps?

more likely it moves several or tens of thousands of pro-trump non-voters into “fuck yeah ima show up for him” trump voters imo.

yet another uninformed canadian opinion

I certainly know many people (and am related to some of them) who claim to be independent, will weigh each candidate's stance on various important issues and vote for the most qualified yada yada yada. And of course they've never once voted for a Democrat.

sarah kenzior just popped up on my twitter feed for the first time in years. things are about to get good

I do think we'll see things like calling references to Project 2025 "hate speech" and that kinda stuff. Which was already somewhat happening, this will mostly amplify a lot of things that were happening or would happen anyway.

dude you wld always say that tho u need a diff angle here