US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

press conference is 6:30 not 5:30 EST

Doesn't he begin sundowning at 6pm?

The Alberta article is actually interesting, just because it tells you something about what the people working behind Trump are thinking and doing. The short version is, they are pretty sure they are going to win, and they think there’s a good chance they get both houses of Congress too. They are excited. But also a few of them evince occasional bits of worry about what they are putting in motion. That never lasts long though.

Anyway, it was mostly reported and written before the debate blowup, but of course it’s updated at the top with all of that stuff. And they seem a little unsettled at the prospect of having to run against someone other than Biden, because that’s what all of their plans are based on. But they still mostly shrug and say they’re going to win anyway.

The most interesting thing from a strategic standpoint is the campaign is devoting a huge amount of resources to stopping “voter fraud“ at polling places, they are going to have people watching everything everywhere, filing challenges, etc. This is entirely at Trump’s direction, because apparently he really believes all the crazy things he says about vote fraud. So they are spending money on that rather than get out the vote efforts. Alberta kind of presses them on this, like is this really a good idea? But it’s what Trump wants.

Voter suppression instead of GOTV makes a lot of sense. With the right kind of cooperation from your flunkies in state legislatures and the judiciary it's MUCH easier to take votes away from your opponent in selectively targeted precincts than it is to find large numbers of voters who wouldn't have voted without your GOTV efforts.

it makes a lot of sense if you want to lose

Jim Crow vote suppression won a hell of a lot of elections in the old Confederacy states. It was sort of their specialty.

if youre famous and the right type, they (by which i can include scotus) will let you do it.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/07/11/voters-feelings-about-the-2024-campaign-and-candidates/

A narrow majority of voters (53%) say they would replace both Biden and Trump with different candidates if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 presidential election. The share saying this is up slightly from the 49% of voters who said this in April.

That shift is largely due to Biden supporters becoming more likely to say both candidates should be replaced:

71% of Biden backers now say they would replace both candidates, up from 62% in April.
The share of Biden supporters who would keep Biden but replace Trump is down to 23%, from 32% in April.

From Politico:

Democratic lawmakers are making contingency plans in case Joe Biden tanks his highly anticipated solo press conference later Thursday, with at least a half-dozen lawmakers preparing to go public against the president, according to six people familiar with discussions.

Three of those lawmakers’ offices have already drafted statements, according to two people who have been briefed on conversations.

yes, let's give him one more high profile chance to screw up before we act

And if he does just ok?

a U.S. official explains why the Biden administration is resuming a shipment of 500 pound bombs to Israel which had been paused since May when the U.S. stated that it had concerns about the killing of civilians in Gaza: pic.twitter.com/KUtFCOyqQx

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) July 10, 2024

Joe’s got to stick it out for his priorities.

Phew so glad we’re only sending the 500lb bombs!

It’s OK, everyone. His god told him it’s ok to commit terrorism when people of colour are killed. That’s why he beefed up police funding immediately after becoming POTUS, too.

Don’t let the door hit your ass too hard on the way out, motherfucker

Look some people want a ceasefire and some people want 2,000-pound bombs, so 500-pound bombs is like a nice compromise. Everybody gets some of what they want.

Thinking about this press conference, I suspect the Biden campaign is after one thing only: that moment when, after being bombarded by questions about the debate and the polls and George Clooney, Biden smiles benignly and asks "Does anybody want to talk about NATO and the fate of the world?" If that's how it does unfold, and he carries it off skillfully enough, I could see how that might work--which is a troubling thought.

Biden's MO is to get angry and yell-y. He's a little more on the ball when he's pissed off.

I.e when Shoneys removed a key item from their salad bar

Biden's MO is to get angry and yell-y. He's a little more on the ball when he's pissed off.

He's known to curse a lot in private meetings. I wish he'd show that side of himself tonight. "I'm the President of the United States! Who the fuck are any of these assholes to question me? Who the fuck does the New York Times think they are, running two hundred fucking articles saying I should drop out? Fuck you, go write crossword puzzle clues."

Based on other recent events my guess is it will be not great/not terrible/close enough to a normal presidential press conference structurally for people who want to be reassured to be reassured but not enough to sell those who have turned the page on him. In other words, more of the same. Then, barring some absolute surge of other Dems calling for a replacement, focus shifts to the GOP convention and Biden catches a little bit of a breather.

But of course, he could also look/sound bad enough that it ramps up those calls immediately.

I wish he'd just say "Fuck you assholes, I quit! Catch me at Rehoboth."

You know what people under 50 like more than old white men? ANGRY old white men cursing at them.

At the moment, I'm clinging to the wait-till-NATO's over theory (and maybe the RNC, although it'd be a great way to knock that out of the headlines), then the damn breaks. It makes perfect sense, the idea of not wanting to embarrass him right now.

Don’t let the door hit your ass too hard on the way out, motherfucker

Beamish, serious civil question: what do you anticipate the Gaza crisis will look like under the new Trump administration?

600 lb bombs

https://t.co/pD7TQilcFa pic.twitter.com/vk6K8W1uxI

— Jason Kirk (buy my novel) (@JasonKirk_fyi) July 11, 2024

It would be hard to imagine the Israeli government feeling any more emboldened under Trump than under Biden. But the number of viable presidential candidates out there who are likely to get really hard-nosed against the Israeli government can be counted on the fingers of your left foot.

No one who criticises Biden's stance on Gaza is under any illusion that Trump would be better, as has been established dozens of times, and some of us nonetheless do not view this as a convincing argument to stop being angry at Biden's stance.

Oh, the genocide would absolutely be even worse under Trump.

I always think of a Bloom County strip from 1984 where Opis has to choose between “wimp” and “shrimp.” They’re both vile, and I vote Democrat from abroad, but it doesn’t mean I can excuse or tolerate Biden’s odiousness

lol what's the Biden camp going to come out and say? "Polls show people don't like our VP?"

Things have gotta be a lil uncomfortable between the Biden and Harris camps right now.

which is crazy because either way Harris is running for office, might want to support the person you have on your own ticket

the thing is that whatever happens, it couldn't happen overnight or even in a week. this is like turning around a massive aircraft carrier, it's a slow process, but it's happening. they can't say, oh well Biden is going to drop out, we just need to get everything lined up with everyone first. I'm sure Harris would have at this point signaled her willingness to take the baton but she is going to be loyal up until the point that it's definitely her time, and Biden has decided. No one wants it to play out like a coup d'etat, but a carefully considered decision by Biden himself.

Harris and Biden have never cared for one another. His team doesn’t reach out to hers

To be fair, she signaled her willingness to take the baton when she signed on as VP.

And of course there are still people pushing for an open convention etc. Probably the ideal way to head that off would be for all the credible candidates to endorse her together — Whitmer, Newsom, Beshear, Pritzker, whoever else's name has been circulating. Which they probably would? Who knows. Unless some billionaire gets one of their ears and promises to bankroll a challenge or something.

CNN headline: "Powerful Democrats furious Biden's decline was hidden."

Is that not going to be a very hard sell, whether they mean donors or elected officials (or both)? That's been kind of on full display.

From NYT:

A small group of Mr. Biden’s advisers in the administration and the campaign — at least two of whom have told allies that they do not believe he should keep trying to run for a second term — have said they would have to convince the president of several things.

They said they have to make the case to the president, who remains convinced of the strength of his campaign, that he cannot win against former President Donald J. Trump. They have to persuade him to believe that another candidate, like Vice President Kamala Harris, could beat Mr. Trump. And they have to assure Mr. Biden that, should he step aside, the process to choose another candidate would be orderly and not devolve into chaos in the Democratic Party.

Possibly the reason behind the Harris polling

Pathetic

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/11/milwaukee-radio-station-says-it-agreed-to-edit-interview-with-biden/74369012007/

I loled

biden preparing for 6:30 like pic.twitter.com/I1sofippc6

— Eric Allen Hatch (@ericallenhatch) July 11, 2024

Trump suffering a paralyzing stroke right now would demonstrate that God loves us and wants us to be happy

Like Prez. Keyes and tipsy, I figure the press conference will be... okay.

Which sucks.

Even though I am reasonably pro-Joe because I would prefer it to be really bad, so as to hasten his withdrawal from the race.

Or it could be really good (which seems unlikely), which would provide only temporary reassurance without changing any minds.

At this point anyone who issues a Joe-must-go statement should be asked, "So you're endorsing Harris, right?" and if the answer's no, they should never be asked anything again.

it's 4:15 at the local park. junior high school ended at 3:30. the younger kid whose dad gave him a $1,000,000 check for his eighth birthday so he'd internalize young what it feels like to be wealthy in the united states just knocked down the older (not rich) stuttering kid who'd challenged him to a fight. the crowd (who wants the younger kid to lose) yells at the older stuttering kid to go home, he can't win, but without saying who can

(xpost) You made a lot of loud, Draconian posts about the literal impossibility of running anyone other than Biden in the days after the debate; you're moving on now to Draconian statements about who's permissible to replace him?

Make sure to demand that they back Harris now while Biden is still the candidate, make sure to stir up as much animosity there as possible.

He just introduced Ukrainian president as Putin, according to a friend

"Ladies and gentlemen, President Putin," @POTUS Biden said as he introduced President Zelenskyy.

Realizing his mistake, he clarified:
"No, we're going to beat Putin."

— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) July 11, 2024

And Zelenskyy replied, "I'm better than Putin."

— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) July 11, 2024

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

He's known to curse a lot in private meetings. I wish he'd show that side of himself tonight. "I'm the President of the United States! Who the fuck are any of these assholes to question me? Who the fuck does the New York Times think they are, running two hundred fucking articles saying I should drop out? Fuck you, go write crossword puzzle clues."

― Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Thursday, 11 July 2024 bookmarkflaglink

Doubt he is capable of this kind of clueless shouting and swearinh