US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

given Biden's public performances over the last two weeks, that seems very unlikely

(that she would do worse)

Well we're only going to get play one of these scenarios — or some other one entirely, I guess — so we'll never know. I don't even care who's right, I'll be happy to be wrong about Biden's risks if he does end up as the nominee. What I don't want to happen is for him to be the nominee and everyone who thinks he's going to lose to be right. If it's Harris or some other non-Biden candidate and they lose, I'll be bummed but that wouldn't change the way things look to me right now. It is also possible that the GOP advantages are such that Trump wins either way and they could run George Clooney and still lose.

I’m not sure how she can do worse than lose.

"Meanwhile, Democrats say the defections are likely to increase in coming days, with lawmakers and donors privately signaling that, by the end of the week, they may publicly call for Biden to drop out. They argue they do not want to embarrass Biden during the ongoing NATO summit in Washington while also giving him time to decide on his own to exit the race."

I don't know if that's one person's interpretation or if it's reliable information, but it does make a lot of sense.

I don't know where that's from, and if that's the case so be it

But it just seems like everything on even the most respected websites right now is high school gossip (sources who are close to the campaign but who want to remain anonymous, etc, and all of the associated bullshit)

People get quoted on background for as long as I've been paying attention. I mean, your dismissal isn't all that different from Ron Ziegler's dismissal of Watergate stories in 1974.

does anyone actually know someone who thinks Biden should stay in the race? I don't mean for like strategic reasons, I mean because they think he's gonna be fine for 4 more years

if you count FB friends that I knew 30-40 years ago, yes

xp Oh, I'm the exact opposite of that, I think he'd be fine as President for 4 more years, but it's strategic reasons that argue against him staying in!

I don't want an 86 year old running the country tbh, it's only because of who he's running against that he'd be a no-brainer choice. The chances of him being fine at the end of 4 years seem increasingly slim.

I don't think he'd be fine as president, it's not exactly a ceremonial job, and look at all the shit that needs to be dealt with. I think it's survivable to have a quasi-incapacitated head of state but it's not ideal! But right, my big concern is ability to win the election, get past that and then if we have an 82-year-old president we'll ... see what happens next.

yeah he would not be fine, as per the numerous links and anecdotes posted here

I mean I think in his current state he probably could limp along but given everything we've heard this last week it really does sound like Biden could decline really fast

dan, genuine question: when the preponderance of reporting is that almost every democrat elected to national office — not just the handful who have gone public, but nearly everyone — has privately expressed serious concerns about biden and is not only open to another course of action, but exploring how to actually effect this — do you think the reporters, george clooney, jon favreau, whoever, are lying, like just completely making it up? or do you think all of these democratic elected representatives, who obviously have a unmistakable incentive to want a strong candidate at the top of the ticket, might know something you don’t? forget the pundits for a moment, the chaits and the yglesiases and the barros or whoever — these are people who have met with the president over the past few months personally. they claim to be telling us what they see with their own eyes and what people close to the president have told them. why would they do this? mass hysteria? closet trumpist sympathies? to place myself in your shoes here, I’m struggling to come up with a coherent theory of why this might be

idk maybe I haven't accepted just how bad it is yet, there's like a boy who cried wolf thing going on where the suggestion that Biden is clearly going senile just feels like rightwing propaganda, I mean it actually was for like 3.5 years and then it became true.

I sympathize with you posters watching CNN or MSNBC.

― the talented mr pimply (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, July 10, 2024 9:06 PM (one hour ago)

Jeez, I don't. Seems like a bad idea, like smashing your thumb with a hammer on purpose.

does anyone actually know someone who thinks Biden should stay in the race?

several of my FB friends (and probably Dan S as well) have reposted this deranged lunatic:

https://www.facebook.com/search/top?q=john%20pavlovitz

to answer Kevin's question, could just be that Democrats are panicking harder than ever right now, between Trump openly running on becoming a dictator and the Supreme Court kneecapping their policy goals, then you got polls showing Biden down a bunch, his approval rating is awful, and he appeared to be downright senile during the debate. its the same principle as when a good NFL team has an extended losing streak and everyone calls for the QB to be benched or the coach to be fired, citing reasons why this absolutely can not work out. but sometimes it does after the story dies down a bit. a lot of times it don't though

I don't think that's what's happening here but it's kind of an answer

I think the emphasis on "senile" is a little too narrow. Whatever condition he's in, it's clearly not great. He can't articulate, he can't make his own case, he makes people nervous watching him. And that's people who want to support him. We want Beast Mode and we've got Least Mode. We need a new fighter.

How about, if the QB has lost the ability to throw with accuracy, their team has a much better chance of winning if that QB just hands off the ball to the running back? Nope. It's still a terrible analogy.

dude you just put in the reserve QB, i.e. the VP

this is like the world's longest mound conference, except the starter who won't leave is also the team owner.

well coach is a better analogy but yeah sometimes the veteran QB who's clearly on the backslide really is the best chance you've got

How about, if the QB has lost the ability to throw with accuracy, their team has a much better chance of winning if that QB just hands off the ball to the running back? Nope. It's still a terrible analogy.

"The San Francisco 49ers are on line 1 with campaign advice, sir."

to answer Kevin's question, could just be that Democrats are panicking harder than ever right now, between Trump openly running on becoming a dictator and the Supreme Court kneecapping their policy goals, then you got polls showing Biden down a bunch, his approval rating is awful, and he appeared to be downright senile during the debate. its the same principle as when a good NFL team has an extended losing streak and everyone calls for the QB to be benched or the coach to be fired, citing reasons why this absolutely can not work out. but sometimes it does after the story dies down a bit. a lot of times it don't though

I don't think that's what's happening here but it's kind of an answer

― frogbs, Wednesday, July 10, 2024 8:44 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

but what would explain this behavior? remember, these are actual insiders, not pundits speculating. they (continuing with this hypothetical) see for themselves that biden is actually fit, and more to the point, they have access to secret polling data that shows he is actually well-positioned. what would be the logical reason for the private bed-wetting?

are they so desperate to stay in the media’s good graces that they are willing to placate them by feeding them information to sustain these stories? what could they possibly gain from that?

We want Beast Mode and we've got Least Mode

Tipsy, did you coin this? Because this is exactly my current state.

lol I did afaik except probably somebody else did first

but what would explain this behavior? remember, these are actual insiders, not pundits speculating. they (continuing with this hypothetical) see for themselves that biden is actually fit, and more to the point, they have access to secret polling data that shows he is actually well-positioned. what would be the logical reason for the private bed-wetting?

― brony james (k3vin k.), Wednesday, July 10, 2024 11:11 PM (eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

well the idea is they see the bad polling data and want Biden to drop out so they're leaking "he's having a lot of senior moments" stories to get the public on their side. I mean it's almost certainly not true that Biden is "fit" but maybe he is kinda functional during work hours

I haven't seen the reporting that nearly every elected Dem thinks he's in bad shape, guess I can't explain that one lol

during work hours

so, before 8 PM?

Have we mentioned Peter Welch in here yet? First senator to call for Biden to step aside. 77 years old, in the same way the first House rep was also septuagenarian, they're being careful about appearances. But the damage is not being contained.

I guess I'm not following the deluge of reporting on this, is the idea that he's been steadily declining since the SotU? because he sounded really good there to the point where FOX News spent the next 3 months telling their viewers that Biden was gonna also appear good at the debate...but only because he's on drugs! or do they think it started more in like, 2022?

Love the mound conference analogy. Eventually, the home plate umpire wanders out and breaks it up--who will be the home plate umpire here?

hunter

lol ok I surrender to the sports analogies

Cory Booker brought it up in 2019!

so, before 8 PM?

― I painted my teeth (sleeve), Wednesday, July 10, 2024 11:32 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

just thinking of my grandma here...when the first signs appeared she was still like...85% the same until about 7 PM. she was in a home about 4 years later

This statement of support reads like the next line is gonna be, "But we've decided to go a different direction."

As Democrats, let us acknowledge the thousands of staffers who are giving their heart & soul to the Biden admin & campaign. They are displaying guts in persevering through the challenges & criticism. They are true believers & represent the best of public service & our party.

— Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) July 11, 2024

Here's the GALLING exchange with @ezraklein about his conversations with Top Democrats who are resigned to Trump. https://t.co/wgAQ0eLNVZ pic.twitter.com/fy0pxkKann

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) July 10, 2024

I notice the Lincoln Project guys are all very concerned about Biden dropping out. Which is probably a mark in its favor unless you think they know anything about anything.

yeah, as has been noted this is an interesting shakeout process if nothing else, seeing the way people turn

look with the QB analogy there's two questions there, who gives you the best chance now and who is best for the future, for #1 I guess there's an argument to be made that Biden has a better chance of winning than Harris would, though I don't agree personally. but sometimes a busted up Drew Brees really is better than a newcomer who might be prone to really big fuckups. for #2 though I don't see how anyone argues that Biden will be fine next year, much less in four

rather go with Biden than Brees imo

Starting QB on his fourth concussion of the half, backup QB who was a four year starter in college but flopped at the combine

does anyone actually know someone who thinks Biden should stay in the race? I don't mean for like strategic reasons, I mean because they think he's gonna be fine for 4 more years

― frogbs, Wednesday, July 10, 2024

ohhhhh yeah

I guess I'm not following the deluge of reporting on this, is the idea that he's been steadily declining since the SotU? because he sounded really good there to the point where FOX News spent the next 3 months telling their viewers that Biden was gonna also appear good at the debate...but only because he's on drugs! or do they think it started more in like, 2022?

― frogbs, Thursday, July 11, 2024

Like many people his age, he has moments of lucidity and like Reagan was still pretty good at reading prepared texts. Gorbachev said many times over the years that Ronnie was on top of it during their one-on-ones.

As a non-American this thread was all making perfect sense until you all suddenly started with the baseball talk.

As an American this thread was all making perfect sense until you all suddenly started with the baseball talk.

As an American this thread continues to make perfect sense, with baseball and deathball (aka American football) metaphors acting as distractions from the horrible mire we are stuck in