US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

You have some good antidepressants

To what kind of election it is, I think it looks a lot like what would usually be a "change" election except that there isn't really change as an option. The Project 2025 people definitely think it's a change election and they have a bunch of changes they want to make. The Democrats aren't acting like it's a change election in any way. Understandable up to a point because of the default to the incumbent, but increasingly tone deaf and unable to articulate any kind of message beyond "we're not as bad as that guy." But people already don't like what they have, selling them more of it in the form of an elderly infirm man is ... I mean, at least Trump's kind of funny. (The U.K. and France elections also felt kind of like this, right? With their own forms of frustrating choices.)

So, that's the kind of election it looks like and feels like imo.

You don’t have to convince people to be reasonable, you have to convince them to vote for an unreasonable option over a more unreasonable option.

As ever.

Leaning into the felon thing, leaning into the fascist thing. Gonna be great if they win.

WTF? Speaking about lawfare at NatCon 4, attorney John Yoo just said, “You have to retaliate against them in exactly the same way until you get some deterrence....If we’re not going to become a banana republic, unfortunately we’re going to have to use banana republic means.”

— (Stephanie) Slade (@sladesr) July 8, 2024

In 2016 Trump voters were embarrassed to say they would vote for him, but now they're emboldened and mad as hell about the convictions and shouting it from the rooftops.

But/because there are a lot fewer of them.

Not sure what that means.

"Harry Enten is "creepy"? OK. I'll add that to the barrage of denialisms I've seen from Dem friends in recent days. "Oh, the polls are always wrong." "Nobody's going to elect Trump again." "This is all just to generate ratings." And the endless whataboutisms. Stuff I'm more accustomed to seeing from the right when they are occasionally forced to confront media that doesn't flatter all their assumptions and prejudices.

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, July 8, 2024"

yes he is creepy. A lot of you have been posting tweets from, and links to, right-leaning sites like Politico and The Hill, and to right-leaning commentators and randos seemingly because they just confirm your biases

unperson keeps telling us that Trump has not gained a single new voter since leaving office, despite polling showing him making gains amongst minority voters.

one of my best friends said in 2020 that Trump would not get one single new voter after 2016, but he got 10 million more new voters. Fortunately Biden got more

And having the second highest raw vote total in history in 2020 IIRC. Not sure how he had fewer voters post-2016 but got more votes, must be that unmath.

unperson keeps telling us that Trump has not gained a single new voter since leaving office, despite polling showing him making gains amongst minority voters.

You believe polls, and the media organizations that commission and design them. That is your right. But (and we've discussed this many times) when you examine those polls' methodology, they are effectively worthless. They reach out to 100,000+ people to get 1000 answers. They can't get enough black respondents, so the ones they do get, they count as three ("weighting"). They only interview English-speaking Latinos. They are national polls when elections are not decided nationally, but state by state. Which of those things gives you the most confidence in the numbers?

xps

Politico isn't right-leaning, it's establishmentarian. And useful! They do some good reporting. Also a lot of bullshit, but that's everybody. The Hill is suspect, but I don't know what the link was, it could have been just a news report. Harry Enten's a Nate Silver data nerd, which I guess is bad if you don't like data.

Politico reported the leaked draft of the Dobbs decision.

yes he is creepy. A lot of you have been posting tweets from, and links to, right-leaning sites like Politico and The Hill, and to right-leaning commentators and randos seemingly because they just confirm your biases

I don't watch CNN so my experience with Harry Enten has been limited in recent years, but I always liked him on the 538 podcast when he was a 20-something who seemed like he was 50 years older. He liked to watch old election night broadcasts on YouTube and had an affinity for diet root beer iirc.

what does "creepy" mean in this context? a crypto conservative? a sexual predator?

It means this:

He liked to watch old election night broadcasts on YouTube and had an affinity for diet root beer

lock em up

Starting to think Biden’s confident cause he will steal the election.

Sensible policies for a happier America.

That was an xp but if Biden steals the election that would rule.

It’s not like he could get in trouble for doing it anyways since it would be an official act

Suddenly Hunter's presence in the inner circle makes sense. The Biden Crime Family rides again.

CNN has the Blitz Primary pair on right now. I like Abby Phillips (referring to the Michelle Obama/Oprah/Taylor Swift town halls): "That also seems...fantastical."

couldn't resist the display name

Wolf Blitzer Primary

The man in the back said, “Everyone’s a hack”
And it turned into a Primary Blitz

Karine Jean-Pierre is fucking awful at her job. She’s almost as bad as that prick from the Dubya administration whose name I’ve wiped from my memory

“Katie Johnson” at age 35 discussing Trump raping her in 1994

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnib-OORRRo

people should remember that this lawsuit was before epstein's arrest and death. the things she says about epstein's "massages" align with details that would become widely known later, but in 2016 epstein was not yet this household name. so for someone looking to smear trump, it wouldn't be an obvious angle.

i am almost certain this accusation is true and it is sickening to think that trump could become president again.

we're just sleepwalking into this repulsive outcome.

for as much as I hated him in 2016 I really didn't think the really salacious stuff was actually true but watching the way this guy always makes the worst and most disgusting possible decisions and the way he skates with fucking everything he does, I'm convinced it's true

You believe polls, and the media organizations that commission and design them. That is your right. But (and we've discussed this many times) when you examine those polls' methodology, they are effectively worthless. They reach out to 100,000+ people to get 1000 answers. They can't get enough black respondents, so the ones they do get, they count as three ("weighting"). They only interview English-speaking Latinos. They are national polls when elections are not decided nationally, but state by state. Which of those things gives you the most confidence in the numbers?

― Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Monday, July 8, 2024 10:05 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol literally unskewing the polls

all the biases you mention would apply to a poll run at any point in time. so comparing polls across time should still be valid. and biden is polling way worse than he did four years ago. it's like if your scale is off by 5 pounds, you won't know how much you weigh, but you can still figure out how much weight you've lost/gained

Biden social media is posting misleading things about the media, presumably because they're mad at them. Stelter's actual point here is that Project 2025 is at least offering some vision of the future, which the Biden campaign hasn't really managed.(Because they're too busy getting pissy with the media, maybe.) He's obviously not endorsing it. Just more wagon-circling victim mentality.

Here's what I said: "The critique of Biden right now is that he's stuck in the past, talking about his past accomplishments. So, ironically, Project 2025, even though it scares a lot of liberals, it's actually a forward-looking plan..." (1/2) https://t.co/JQaZrdpcSP

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) July 8, 2024

Like why are they posting about Brian Stelter at all? Who is this even playing to?

It’s comms people in the white house mad at their cultural peers.

The laser eyes dark brandon shit pisses me off now.

It’s comms people in the white house mad at their cultural peers.

Yep. Good thing they've got their priorities straight.

The Dark Brandon idiocy was cringe from day one

https://www.jezebel.com/i-never-want-to-see-the-dark-brandon-meme-again

Doesn't seem that long ago that Karl Rove threw an on-air fit because he didn't like the math he was seeing.

tryna pod save America

Replace Biden as nominee:

64% all voters
55% Black voters
66% Hispanic voters
48% Biden (!) voters

Biden is too old to be an effective president:

69% all voters
62% Black voters
68% Hispanic voters
55% Biden voters

This is from the NYT PRE-debate poll, Trump 48-Biden 42,…

— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) July 8, 2024

Guy isn’t just destroying his legacy, he’s about to take a wet shit on it

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GSCeh_HXwAEC446.jpg

qanon vibes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2_E62NY3hg

Oops lol. Great song, though!

pic.twitter.com/0MPoJgznk0

— anti-treat aktion (@biscuitcoded) July 9, 2024

augh!

good morning!

ppl are so betrayed by that AOC statement, but a statement from her calling for Biden to drop out would have very little purchase within the White House and the Democratic establishment at large. there is more upside for her at this point to voice loyalty -- though the actual statement isn't exactly a full-throated endorsement of Biden, it's just her saying factually that Biden is the nominee, so she will support him (as long as he remains the nominee).