US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

Karine Jean-Pierre inadvertently convinced me Joe Biden has Parkinson’s.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/us/politics/white-house-briefing-shouting.html

thisisfine

Biden’s plan is to white knuckle it through July, appear at a heavily protested convention, never appear after 8pm, then campaign in the fall as student protests start back up and he continues to call them antisemites. This, to him, is how you win an election and save democracy.

— Blair (@__seab) July 8, 2024

where do you guys go for sane, considered writing about this stuff?

No one sane would write about this until something actually happens — it’s just conjecture and waiting afaict

https://www.drudgereport.com/

can we not link to that plz

where do you guys go for sane, considered writing about this stuff?

this is the best spot I've seen so far tbh

where do you guys go for sane, considered writing about this stuff?

2029

okay, who is Trump gonna pick for his running mate? (desperate to change the subject)

who knows what's going on at this point

Kind of funny as everyone on here is moving on with house statements that Senators keep putting out stuff like this https://t.co/jdU2VHwCGT

— tyson brody (@tysonbrody) July 9, 2024

many xxp I'm sorry, but Harry Enten is creepy. Yes, Biden's the first democrat who could potentially win to be behind in the polls in July, but Trump trailed Hillary Clinton in polls in July 2016 by 4% according to 538

Re: AOC's statement. It is remarkably disciplined, wholly focused on answering a narrow set of questions. It's full of direct assurances, but without a trace of reassurance about the unspoken issues that most need to be addressed. iow, it's the notes she doesn't play.

yup exactly, everyone will circle the wagons until they have the narrative straight (I got that PMA)

I am going to lose my mind if I have to deal w JD so my hope is Doug.

Fun fact: if you don’t want to be awful, don’t run for public office in Ohio if your name is James:
James A Rhodes
Jim Traficant
Jim Jordan
James D Vance
😱

Squad member Rep. Ilhan Omar, who’s critiqued the administration’s policy toward Israel, says Biden has her support to remain the Democratic nominee. “Outside a few outliers I think everybody’s supporting the president”

— Maeve Sheehey (@MaeveSheehey) July 8, 2024

Harry Enten is "creepy"? OK. I'll add that to the barrage of denialisms I've seen from Dem friends in recent days. "Oh, the polls are always wrong." "Nobody's going to elect Trump again." "This is all just to generate ratings." And the endless whataboutisms. Stuff I'm more accustomed to seeing from the right when they are occasionally forced to confront media that doesn't flatter all their assumptions and prejudices.

Anyway, right, he said "first Democrat to trail in July since 2000." If you think about that a little, it means that Democrats have been ahead in July for the past five presidential cycles — and even at that, they lost two of them. And Biden (directly contrary to the picture he's trying to paint about 2020) way underperformed his polling four years ago.

If you can sort thru all of that and find any nugget of optimism, have at it. But Harry Enten being creepy is not an argument.

They lost the popular vote once. And polling accuracy doesn’t equate to candidate performance.

I don't have strong feelings about whether he stays in or not, but I do hope this gets resolved either way, it's stressful reading about it every day.

I'm guessing even if he utterly blows the election, he'll still win the popular vote, which is a good illustration of how absurd the entire situation is and will continue to be.

C’mon we’re not fighting for the popular vote. I wish we were. The popular vote was not much consolation from 2000-2008 or 2016-2020.

And yes, everyone likes to dismiss polls they don’t like, and they’re all just snapshots, but they’re also not at all meaningless. We’d all feel a lot better and not be dissing polls if Biden was at 55 percent.

There are many factors that make this year's election different from other previous elections. Do the differences outweigh the similarities? Depends on what you're trying to convince people of, I guess.

I'm not saying we are, just that it's absurd that every 4 years we are subjected to an ever more stressful election cycle when there is little doubt the Democrat is going to get more votes each time.

xp

Oh yeah, 100% with you. It is a bullshit system.

It is all very stressful.

"We’d all feel a lot better and not be dissing polls if Biden was at 55 percent.

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra)"

We would, but no presidential candidate in my remaining lifetime will ever win by 55%, and I'm not sure any presidential candidate in my previous lifetime had polls that good. It will be very close

I also think polls have changed. In 2016 Trump voters were embarrassed to say they would vote for him, but now they're emboldened and mad as hell about the convictions and shouting it from the rooftops.

But I have to have faith that the electorate is mostly reasonable and will not want to vote again for a liar who was never good at business just good at being a game show host, who encouraged an insurrection and has been convicted of 34 felonies, who is known to be a sexual predator and who created chaos and dysphoria every single day of his term and is promising to do it again on a bigger scale

You have some good antidepressants

To what kind of election it is, I think it looks a lot like what would usually be a "change" election except that there isn't really change as an option. The Project 2025 people definitely think it's a change election and they have a bunch of changes they want to make. The Democrats aren't acting like it's a change election in any way. Understandable up to a point because of the default to the incumbent, but increasingly tone deaf and unable to articulate any kind of message beyond "we're not as bad as that guy." But people already don't like what they have, selling them more of it in the form of an elderly infirm man is ... I mean, at least Trump's kind of funny. (The U.K. and France elections also felt kind of like this, right? With their own forms of frustrating choices.)

So, that's the kind of election it looks like and feels like imo.

You don’t have to convince people to be reasonable, you have to convince them to vote for an unreasonable option over a more unreasonable option.

As ever.

Leaning into the felon thing, leaning into the fascist thing. Gonna be great if they win.

WTF? Speaking about lawfare at NatCon 4, attorney John Yoo just said, “You have to retaliate against them in exactly the same way until you get some deterrence....If we’re not going to become a banana republic, unfortunately we’re going to have to use banana republic means.”

— (Stephanie) Slade (@sladesr) July 8, 2024

In 2016 Trump voters were embarrassed to say they would vote for him, but now they're emboldened and mad as hell about the convictions and shouting it from the rooftops.

But/because there are a lot fewer of them.

Not sure what that means.

"Harry Enten is "creepy"? OK. I'll add that to the barrage of denialisms I've seen from Dem friends in recent days. "Oh, the polls are always wrong." "Nobody's going to elect Trump again." "This is all just to generate ratings." And the endless whataboutisms. Stuff I'm more accustomed to seeing from the right when they are occasionally forced to confront media that doesn't flatter all their assumptions and prejudices.

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Monday, July 8, 2024"

yes he is creepy. A lot of you have been posting tweets from, and links to, right-leaning sites like Politico and The Hill, and to right-leaning commentators and randos seemingly because they just confirm your biases

unperson keeps telling us that Trump has not gained a single new voter since leaving office, despite polling showing him making gains amongst minority voters.

one of my best friends said in 2020 that Trump would not get one single new voter after 2016, but he got 10 million more new voters. Fortunately Biden got more

And having the second highest raw vote total in history in 2020 IIRC. Not sure how he had fewer voters post-2016 but got more votes, must be that unmath.

unperson keeps telling us that Trump has not gained a single new voter since leaving office, despite polling showing him making gains amongst minority voters.

You believe polls, and the media organizations that commission and design them. That is your right. But (and we've discussed this many times) when you examine those polls' methodology, they are effectively worthless. They reach out to 100,000+ people to get 1000 answers. They can't get enough black respondents, so the ones they do get, they count as three ("weighting"). They only interview English-speaking Latinos. They are national polls when elections are not decided nationally, but state by state. Which of those things gives you the most confidence in the numbers?

xps

Politico isn't right-leaning, it's establishmentarian. And useful! They do some good reporting. Also a lot of bullshit, but that's everybody. The Hill is suspect, but I don't know what the link was, it could have been just a news report. Harry Enten's a Nate Silver data nerd, which I guess is bad if you don't like data.

Politico reported the leaked draft of the Dobbs decision.

yes he is creepy. A lot of you have been posting tweets from, and links to, right-leaning sites like Politico and The Hill, and to right-leaning commentators and randos seemingly because they just confirm your biases

I don't watch CNN so my experience with Harry Enten has been limited in recent years, but I always liked him on the 538 podcast when he was a 20-something who seemed like he was 50 years older. He liked to watch old election night broadcasts on YouTube and had an affinity for diet root beer iirc.

what does "creepy" mean in this context? a crypto conservative? a sexual predator?

It means this:

He liked to watch old election night broadcasts on YouTube and had an affinity for diet root beer

lock em up

Starting to think Biden’s confident cause he will steal the election.

Sensible policies for a happier America.

That was an xp but if Biden steals the election that would rule.

It’s not like he could get in trouble for doing it anyways since it would be an official act

Suddenly Hunter's presence in the inner circle makes sense. The Biden Crime Family rides again.

CNN has the Blitz Primary pair on right now. I like Abby Phillips (referring to the Michelle Obama/Oprah/Taylor Swift town halls): "That also seems...fantastical."

couldn't resist the display name

Wolf Blitzer Primary