US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

Oh damn (re LBJ)

I’m working my way through the Caro books and a constant theme is Johnson’s fear of dying young of a heart attack (which happened to men in his family), of never having enough time.

Lyndon Johnson knew that men in his family died quite young as a rule. It was always on his mind.

Biden’s mum was very long lived.

My Beltway friend mentioned Parkinson’s as a possibility because of the ‘frozen’ quality of his face.

(xposts) Ditto Mickey Mantle--why he said he never bothered taking care of himself.

My Beltway friend mentioned Parkinson’s as a possibility because of the ‘frozen’ quality of his face.

― guillotine vogue (suzy), Monday, July 8, 2024 2:04 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

there are certainly some strong signs, this included. but it is a tricky diagnosis to make, and at minimum a hands-on examination is required, and almost always the diagnosis is made retroactively, after you have started specific medical therapy and considered whether the symptoms have improved. there are no blood tests or radiographic scans that can either rule in or rule out the disease with any acceptable degree of certainty

cognitive effects aren’t always part of Parkinson’s especially early on iirc

i def don't think Harris is a sure thing, just a much better bet.

I think Biden-Trump always was (and possibly still is) a 50-50 proposition and think it is unrealistic to believe that Harris would be better than that, no matter how it might make people here feel better (maybe me included).

my mom watched my dad deteriorate with Parkinson's and she thought it was that when she saw the debate too.
I also think his face is frozen from botox/face lifts/idk what -- he looks like he is about to pop.

do you think any republican women in anti-abortion red states might vote for harris? over trump...? i wonder about that. an abortion protest vote.

yes

Over a Catholic like Biden who spent years trying to curb access to abortion? Fuck yes

I think a well-run Harris campaign — which is assuming a lot, but best-case — has the possibility to energize and bring out some voters who might or might not vote for Biden (or vote at all). I think that number is bigger than whatever Biden die-hards there are who would sit out in protest if he's not on the ballot.

But I also agree that it's going to be close regardless. I guess what I'd say (and like so much of what we're all saying, this IS just a guess) is that Biden-v-Trump might optimistically be a 50-50 proposition, with some significant possibility that it's less than that for Biden. While Harris-v-Trump is realistically a 50-50 proposition. So, I don't think there's some huge leap achievable there because so much of our politics is already set and hard to move. But the margins are going to matter a lot.

I think it's coin flips all the way down and anything else is a blanket we are holding to tell ourselves otherwise.

Personally, I would be both energized and terrified by a switch to Harris.

No idea how anyone can believe Biden-Trump is 50/50 at this point. The mental decline story isn’t going away. You’re getting a four month Biden Brain Watch media cycle buoyed by a supermajority of people already believing he’s too old.

The minute multiple Congresspeople called on him to step out, they created a million attack ads for October.

It’s either lose honorably by Ridin with Biden or take a chance with Harris.

No idea how anyone can believe Biden-Trump is 50/50 at this point.

I think it's not, at this point. When I say it could optimistically be 50-50, that's allowing for any number of reasons for more people to turn against Trump between now and November. I don't see Biden being able to move much of anything on his own — where I think Harris potentially does (with a well-run campaign, if she can manage that).

the problem with Biden staying in is you cede two of your main arguments - one, that your guy is fit and the other person clearly isn't, two, that your guy is the one putting country over himself...how can you argue that now that he insists on staying in despite a big chunk of the party, along with its voters, telling him to step down?

also feel like I must point out that having a candidate who is attractive and stylish as opposed to grotesque like Trump or decomposing like Biden might go a long way. I think the vast majority of this country are just sick of looking at these guys!

I think that last statement is otm and the biggest actual benefit of making a change.

Women in red states with strict anti-abortion laws who self-identify as Republicans but are also strongly in favor of reproductive rights probably do not exist in large enough numbers to swing their state to Harris. Younger women who are strongly in favor of reproductive rights, but who don't self-identify as Democrats and are skeptical of politics in general might well turn out for Harris with more enthusiasm than for Biden, whatever their state's politics are. It's good to remember that this issue has been the strongest one for the Democrats since Roe was blown up. It needs to come back to the forefront.

No idea how anyone can believe Biden-Trump is 50/50 at this point.

this isn't a completely unfounded take. the forecasts haven't changed that much.

Omg this letter

Even freaking Pakistan has had a female leader by this point, though it obviously didn't end well for her

“Ok we gotta stop the bleeding, what do we do?”
“Hey intern, draft a 2 pager”

I think if the election were held today it might be about equal but Harris has a lot of room to improve whereas Biden I don't think can escape this story at this point. there's a reason the GOP really, really, really wants him to stay in the race.

this isn't a completely unfounded take. the forecasts haven't changed that much.

It was 50/50 before the debate if you believed enough voters would look past their disdain for Biden to vote for Anyone But Trump - after the debate polls opened up several more points in Trump's favor. Biden's not becoming a stronger candidate between now and November to reverse the drop.

Biden's schtick was being a steady hand at the tiller, you won't have to think about the news cycle anymore. Can't exactly claim that now.

I guess maybe the letter didn’t work so well:

Rep. Adam Smith, ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, publicly said Monday that President Joe Biden should abandon his reelection bid — one day after he made that position clear during a private call with top House Democrats.

"The president’s performance in the debate was alarming to watch and the American people have made it clear they no longer see him as a credible candidate to serve four more years as president,” Smith (D-Wash.) said in a statement. ”Since the debate the president has not seriously addressed these concerns."

He's lost Yglesias.

Biden's schtick was being a steady hand at the tiller

Yep, and it was a mostly plausible case four years ago. It isn't anymore and it's not going to be. Plus also people don't even want steady-as-she-goes in 2024, they think things suck, they want them to get better. Granted, anything you can attack Biden for apart from age — inflation, immigration, the other things people say they're mad about — they could also attack Harris for. But she could somewhat credibly make a case that she'd be a new administration and not just more of the same. More credibly than Biden, anyway.

there's legit concern about down-ticket races as well, which i think is fair

Biden will only back off under direct pressure from Democratic leadership in Congress, and a nearly united front of Democratic governors and Congressional rank-and-file. It's got to be a full court press, but not one fought out in the media. That would just open wounds that wouldn't close in time for November. I think we've got, oh, about another six or eight days to make that happen, but the sooner the better.

Let's just say I'm hopeful, but not optimistic.

Yeah there's that as well. I just think this is a particularly unprecedented election. Obviously the last two were as well, but this one is really one where you have one candidate most people hate, and another one that just bums almost everyone else out. It's a very low energy sad election on both sides, the Trump energy isn't there like it was before, and what little Biden energy existed is dissipating exponentially every day. So anyone who comes in with vibrancy is going to immediately spark something in the group that's feeling Just truly despondent about the whole damn thing.

xp

Is this really the Colorado Gov? He’s got some good troll game.

None of my intelligent (130+ IQ) friends use X/twitter. They only read accurate, vetted news sources and almost never use social media spontaneously on their own time. This has been a long term consistent observation, but today confirmation came. A new meta-analysis showed time…

— Jared Polis (@jaredpolis) July 8, 2024

Oof

.@AOC: “I spoke with the President extensively this weekend. He has made abundantly clear that he is in this race … he is not leaving this race. He is the nominee. I am making sure that I support him & that I am focused on making sure that we win in November.”

— Daniella Diaz (@DaniellaMicaela) July 8, 2024

Jeffries and Schumer affirmatively backing him and no longer ducking questions.

Not a serious party.

This is all part of the plan. This will negatively polarize the Biden loyalists into thinking he needs to go. Trust the process. https://t.co/g0LdggksCv

— Nolan 🌹 (@VoidOfRoses) July 8, 2024

Meanwhile: Biden is first Democratic candidate to be behind in July of an election year since Gore in 2000. He's also at his all-time low vs. Trump.

Biden is saying that 2020 polls underestimated him, so why believe them now? When it comes to the general election, that's not true. Polls overestimated him.

Biden's in his worst poll position ever against Trump. He's the 1st Democrat to trail in national July polls since 2000. pic.twitter.com/ViyxLPdto6

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 8, 2024

Karine Jean-Pierre inadvertently convinced me Joe Biden has Parkinson’s.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/us/politics/white-house-briefing-shouting.html

thisisfine

Biden’s plan is to white knuckle it through July, appear at a heavily protested convention, never appear after 8pm, then campaign in the fall as student protests start back up and he continues to call them antisemites. This, to him, is how you win an election and save democracy.

— Blair (@__seab) July 8, 2024

where do you guys go for sane, considered writing about this stuff?

No one sane would write about this until something actually happens — it’s just conjecture and waiting afaict

https://www.drudgereport.com/

can we not link to that plz

where do you guys go for sane, considered writing about this stuff?

this is the best spot I've seen so far tbh

where do you guys go for sane, considered writing about this stuff?

2029

okay, who is Trump gonna pick for his running mate? (desperate to change the subject)