US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

Though apparently you can put the "Trump is like Hitler" worms back

I thought he might be able weather this, but I'm becoming increasingly isolated

So...a prominent liberal blog began beating a very particular drum last week, suggesting that Biden might have Parkinson's (or "parkinsonism," a vaguer term). Their big piece of evidence, beyond "him talk slow, him walk slow," was that Dr. Kevin Cannard, an expert in Parkinson's, had been visiting the White House a whole lot the last few months.

On July 3, Biden signed the National Plan to End Parkinson's into law. It's the first-ever federal legislation aimed at eradicating the disease, and passed the Senate in May.

I expect to see nothing about this on that prominent liberal blog I mentioned.

― Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Monday, July 8, 2024 10:51 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

speaking as a physician, and having read a few columns by physician-pundits of varying degrees of repute, all I’ll say about this is that it’s not possible to make this diagnosis remotely, but it’s certainly a fair question to ask, on the narrow merits. but honestly I am not sure that it matters — whether he has parkinson disease related dementia, alzheimer dementia, or just age-related decline, none of these are acceptable traits in the person with the most important job in the world

xpost - He's not going to weather this, but the chickenshit Dems will wait too long to finally make a move.

and like i said before, the guy will be 86 when his second term would end. back in 2020 people were worried about him being 82 before this term ended. if the Dems don't force a move, that makes it look like he steps aside willingly after discussions with his family or something, then i think it's likely Trump would win. Harris would have a much, much better shot.

also, as someone who still harbors considerable bitterness about the 2020 primaries, but is heartened by the strange coalition that has nevertheless formed under our new dire circumstances, I just don’t think it’s useful to relitigate 2020 right now. the pundits who you’d expect to be making these points have been by and large, somewhat shockingly I think but correctly, behaving themselves. just not the time or place

I think Biden should step aside, but I appear to be much, much more cynical and doubtful about Harris' odds than most of you. I mean, she should be a better candidate, but remembering how much electing a black president broke the brains of 40% of this country, I just don't see us electing a woman of color at this particular juncture in American history.

hence why I posted Adam Johnson a couple days ago. The emergent coalitions in the last week has startled me!

xpost to k3vin

remembering how much electing a black president broke the brains of 40% of this country, I just don't see us electing a woman of color at this particular juncture in American history.

Believe me I understand, but I well remember a local pundit in November 2007 saying Obama had no chance because his name was BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA. If the circumstances are desperate, racists will look past their prejudices.

Again, I would absolutely love to be proven wrong. And maybe my cynical vibes are colored heavily by my two recent trips to very rural America, but I'm extremely skeptical about her chances right now.

i think it's crucial to not look past the part that Trump is despised more than Biden, but he projects a shallow type of strength that does actually appeal to low info voters, or voters who prefer to have a strong leader for America over a moral leader. I don't really doubt Harris' strength tbh, and she's far more likable than either of these two guys, and after watching these two wheeze their way through the past few months, don't you think she'd be a shot in the arm?

https://www.slowboring.com/p/i-was-wrong-about-biden

on the topic of strange coalitions, yglesias has fallen. it’s long and not paywalled so I won’t bother quoting it. but it’s worth reading, however you might feel about him (not a fan personally)

You're not at all cynical, jon.

Hey, listen, I posted my experience yesterday of spying my first JOE AND HIS HO MUST GO sign two blocks from me.

Anyway, I'm out, y'all. I'm meeting with local Dems on extremely local races. I'm going partly because I'm dying to feel the room.

don't you think she'd be a shot in the arm?

Absolutely! She'd be a great candidate! And a better president than either of our options! I just have trouble reconciling her strengths with the racist shithole that is America. Couple that with, as brought up again earlier, the Electoral College given more strength to rural voters and well, I'm very skeptical. But I'll silence my naysaying on that point and hope to be proven wrong.

Good luck fighting the good fight Alfred!

i def don't think Harris is a sure thing, just a much better bet. and she really just needs to energize the voters in several key states vs winning over vast numbers of folks who would likely already not vote for Biden and/or vote for Trump. bringing in Harris is a trick play on offense which is perhaps already telegraphed, but you've otherwise got an exhausted Biden defense being pushed and pushed back.

weird detail in LBJ's wikipage: Although it was not made public at the time, Johnson was worried about his failing health and was concerned that he might not live through another term. The previous year, in 1967, he secretly commissioned an actuarial study that accurately predicted he would die at age 64.

Oh damn (re LBJ)

I’m working my way through the Caro books and a constant theme is Johnson’s fear of dying young of a heart attack (which happened to men in his family), of never having enough time.

Lyndon Johnson knew that men in his family died quite young as a rule. It was always on his mind.

Biden’s mum was very long lived.

My Beltway friend mentioned Parkinson’s as a possibility because of the ‘frozen’ quality of his face.

(xposts) Ditto Mickey Mantle--why he said he never bothered taking care of himself.

My Beltway friend mentioned Parkinson’s as a possibility because of the ‘frozen’ quality of his face.

― guillotine vogue (suzy), Monday, July 8, 2024 2:04 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

there are certainly some strong signs, this included. but it is a tricky diagnosis to make, and at minimum a hands-on examination is required, and almost always the diagnosis is made retroactively, after you have started specific medical therapy and considered whether the symptoms have improved. there are no blood tests or radiographic scans that can either rule in or rule out the disease with any acceptable degree of certainty

cognitive effects aren’t always part of Parkinson’s especially early on iirc

i def don't think Harris is a sure thing, just a much better bet.

I think Biden-Trump always was (and possibly still is) a 50-50 proposition and think it is unrealistic to believe that Harris would be better than that, no matter how it might make people here feel better (maybe me included).

my mom watched my dad deteriorate with Parkinson's and she thought it was that when she saw the debate too.
I also think his face is frozen from botox/face lifts/idk what -- he looks like he is about to pop.

do you think any republican women in anti-abortion red states might vote for harris? over trump...? i wonder about that. an abortion protest vote.

yes

Over a Catholic like Biden who spent years trying to curb access to abortion? Fuck yes

I think a well-run Harris campaign — which is assuming a lot, but best-case — has the possibility to energize and bring out some voters who might or might not vote for Biden (or vote at all). I think that number is bigger than whatever Biden die-hards there are who would sit out in protest if he's not on the ballot.

But I also agree that it's going to be close regardless. I guess what I'd say (and like so much of what we're all saying, this IS just a guess) is that Biden-v-Trump might optimistically be a 50-50 proposition, with some significant possibility that it's less than that for Biden. While Harris-v-Trump is realistically a 50-50 proposition. So, I don't think there's some huge leap achievable there because so much of our politics is already set and hard to move. But the margins are going to matter a lot.

I think it's coin flips all the way down and anything else is a blanket we are holding to tell ourselves otherwise.

Personally, I would be both energized and terrified by a switch to Harris.

No idea how anyone can believe Biden-Trump is 50/50 at this point. The mental decline story isn’t going away. You’re getting a four month Biden Brain Watch media cycle buoyed by a supermajority of people already believing he’s too old.

The minute multiple Congresspeople called on him to step out, they created a million attack ads for October.

It’s either lose honorably by Ridin with Biden or take a chance with Harris.

No idea how anyone can believe Biden-Trump is 50/50 at this point.

I think it's not, at this point. When I say it could optimistically be 50-50, that's allowing for any number of reasons for more people to turn against Trump between now and November. I don't see Biden being able to move much of anything on his own — where I think Harris potentially does (with a well-run campaign, if she can manage that).

the problem with Biden staying in is you cede two of your main arguments - one, that your guy is fit and the other person clearly isn't, two, that your guy is the one putting country over himself...how can you argue that now that he insists on staying in despite a big chunk of the party, along with its voters, telling him to step down?

also feel like I must point out that having a candidate who is attractive and stylish as opposed to grotesque like Trump or decomposing like Biden might go a long way. I think the vast majority of this country are just sick of looking at these guys!

I think that last statement is otm and the biggest actual benefit of making a change.

Women in red states with strict anti-abortion laws who self-identify as Republicans but are also strongly in favor of reproductive rights probably do not exist in large enough numbers to swing their state to Harris. Younger women who are strongly in favor of reproductive rights, but who don't self-identify as Democrats and are skeptical of politics in general might well turn out for Harris with more enthusiasm than for Biden, whatever their state's politics are. It's good to remember that this issue has been the strongest one for the Democrats since Roe was blown up. It needs to come back to the forefront.

No idea how anyone can believe Biden-Trump is 50/50 at this point.

this isn't a completely unfounded take. the forecasts haven't changed that much.

Omg this letter

Even freaking Pakistan has had a female leader by this point, though it obviously didn't end well for her

“Ok we gotta stop the bleeding, what do we do?”
“Hey intern, draft a 2 pager”

I think if the election were held today it might be about equal but Harris has a lot of room to improve whereas Biden I don't think can escape this story at this point. there's a reason the GOP really, really, really wants him to stay in the race.

this isn't a completely unfounded take. the forecasts haven't changed that much.

It was 50/50 before the debate if you believed enough voters would look past their disdain for Biden to vote for Anyone But Trump - after the debate polls opened up several more points in Trump's favor. Biden's not becoming a stronger candidate between now and November to reverse the drop.

Biden's schtick was being a steady hand at the tiller, you won't have to think about the news cycle anymore. Can't exactly claim that now.

I guess maybe the letter didn’t work so well:

Rep. Adam Smith, ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, publicly said Monday that President Joe Biden should abandon his reelection bid — one day after he made that position clear during a private call with top House Democrats.

"The president’s performance in the debate was alarming to watch and the American people have made it clear they no longer see him as a credible candidate to serve four more years as president,” Smith (D-Wash.) said in a statement. ”Since the debate the president has not seriously addressed these concerns."

He's lost Yglesias.

Biden's schtick was being a steady hand at the tiller

Yep, and it was a mostly plausible case four years ago. It isn't anymore and it's not going to be. Plus also people don't even want steady-as-she-goes in 2024, they think things suck, they want them to get better. Granted, anything you can attack Biden for apart from age — inflation, immigration, the other things people say they're mad about — they could also attack Harris for. But she could somewhat credibly make a case that she'd be a new administration and not just more of the same. More credibly than Biden, anyway.

there's legit concern about down-ticket races as well, which i think is fair

Biden will only back off under direct pressure from Democratic leadership in Congress, and a nearly united front of Democratic governors and Congressional rank-and-file. It's got to be a full court press, but not one fought out in the media. That would just open wounds that wouldn't close in time for November. I think we've got, oh, about another six or eight days to make that happen, but the sooner the better.

Let's just say I'm hopeful, but not optimistic.

Yeah there's that as well. I just think this is a particularly unprecedented election. Obviously the last two were as well, but this one is really one where you have one candidate most people hate, and another one that just bums almost everyone else out. It's a very low energy sad election on both sides, the Trump energy isn't there like it was before, and what little Biden energy existed is dissipating exponentially every day. So anyone who comes in with vibrancy is going to immediately spark something in the group that's feeling Just truly despondent about the whole damn thing.

xp

Is this really the Colorado Gov? He’s got some good troll game.