US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

curmudgeon’s passing on of speculation about schumer’s calculation could apply to any national dem - if they push him and kamala loses they’ll be blamed. if he stays in and he loses, he’ll be blamed. the incentives run the wrong way

If only they had all thought longitudinally, say, 4 years ago

"On July 3, Biden signed the National Plan to End Parkinson's into law. It's the first-ever federal legislation aimed at eradicating the disease, and passed the Senate in May"

Looks like a crappy bill that I have a few questions about but its neither here nor there. Its about what tomorrow brings -- or more likely, not, if Biden himself is not around for.

lol

Oh, you think Biden is too old? Well then, how do you explain the fact that he still remembers an obscure grudge from a long time ago that no one else cares about?? https://t.co/8yk471sVAg

— Jesse Brenneman (@Jesse_Brenneman) July 8, 2024

Me, in high school English class: I’m really enjoying this Greek tragedy but don’t you think it’s kind of overwrought? An aging leader, refusing to give up power, steering his country into crisis, openly tempting the gods — pretty over the top

Me, reading the news: pic.twitter.com/dodec38mGC

— Robinson Meyer (@robinsonmeyer) July 8, 2024

Reminds me when Fernando Trueba won his Oscar in 1997. ”I would like to believe in God so that I could thank him, but I just believe in Billy Wilder. So thank you, Billy Wilder.”

The next day Billy Wilder picked up the phone. "It's God calling."

Belle Époque won an Oscar in 1994, not 1997

yeah, a typo

don't piss off God

If Joe were trying to win back Hunter's trust and affection while also competing to be arm wrestling champion? now that would be Over the Top.

Meet me halfway
across oblivion

Winner takes it all
Loser has to fall

"An A+ Democratic Senate source of mine reckons that, of the 51 Ds, no more than half a dozen believe he still has a plausible chance in November and want him to stay in the race. The ratio on the House side, as best as I can tell, is roughly the same" https://t.co/jEOxrI3I5T

— Nick Field (@nick_field90) July 8, 2024

time for the 25th

if they have to 25th amendment him I think they for sure lose in November

The president of the United States is playing a gnarly game of chicken with his own party—a game in which, as my old pal John Harris put it in Politico, his “best hope for survival is the timidity of his skeptics.”

ffs a buncha billionaires just do a GoFundMe, raise 500 million and build a replica of The White House and tell him the White House moved to a different address and then have Harris take over.

then if Trump wins, have him report there as well.

invoking the 25th would involve a HUGE mess compared to Biden facing Almighty God a solid wall of elected democrats telling him he's holding a losing hand and the country can't afford a Trump victory, resulting in him 'voluntarily' stepping out of the race, releasing his delegates, and endorsing Harris. one may reasonably hope that's the outcome. after that, start tackling the remaining mess of switching candidates in July

If someone invokes the 25th we may actually see an "official act" take place

_ does he support expanding the supreme court, now?_

There was a line about the Supreme Court in the "fuck you, I'm not going anywhere""

Biden is too cowardly to rock the boat. It’s the same empty, centrist bullshit that results in constant gridlock and American decline

I made the point earlier about all the fodder this is providing for future attack ads, but I think that needs to be kept in mind. The black screen, the black and white image of Biden at the debate, gape-mouthed, quote after quote after quote from Democrats, the New York Times, former officeholders, etc about why he should step aside. Even if they manage to outlive this story in its first run, the reruns will be brutal.

And the reason they aren't running those ads right now is I assume they don't want him to step aside. But boy will they ever once it's too late to do anything. Any political calculus that doesn't include that is not thinking realistically. It's why I think he's already walking dead, I just don't see how you go on with the campaign from here.

The lead story on CNN right now is the Parkinsons doctor, the failure to explain, and a shouting match with the press. This will be another reality of the next few months if Biden digs in.

another plausible GOP political attack ad idea: truthfully point out that most people in biden's own party aren't comfortable with him leading the country any longer and that many elected democrats have called for him to step down. you can't put those worms back in the can

Though apparently you can put the "Trump is like Hitler" worms back

I thought he might be able weather this, but I'm becoming increasingly isolated

So...a prominent liberal blog began beating a very particular drum last week, suggesting that Biden might have Parkinson's (or "parkinsonism," a vaguer term). Their big piece of evidence, beyond "him talk slow, him walk slow," was that Dr. Kevin Cannard, an expert in Parkinson's, had been visiting the White House a whole lot the last few months.

On July 3, Biden signed the National Plan to End Parkinson's into law. It's the first-ever federal legislation aimed at eradicating the disease, and passed the Senate in May.

I expect to see nothing about this on that prominent liberal blog I mentioned.

― Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Monday, July 8, 2024 10:51 AM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

speaking as a physician, and having read a few columns by physician-pundits of varying degrees of repute, all I’ll say about this is that it’s not possible to make this diagnosis remotely, but it’s certainly a fair question to ask, on the narrow merits. but honestly I am not sure that it matters — whether he has parkinson disease related dementia, alzheimer dementia, or just age-related decline, none of these are acceptable traits in the person with the most important job in the world

xpost - He's not going to weather this, but the chickenshit Dems will wait too long to finally make a move.

and like i said before, the guy will be 86 when his second term would end. back in 2020 people were worried about him being 82 before this term ended. if the Dems don't force a move, that makes it look like he steps aside willingly after discussions with his family or something, then i think it's likely Trump would win. Harris would have a much, much better shot.

also, as someone who still harbors considerable bitterness about the 2020 primaries, but is heartened by the strange coalition that has nevertheless formed under our new dire circumstances, I just don’t think it’s useful to relitigate 2020 right now. the pundits who you’d expect to be making these points have been by and large, somewhat shockingly I think but correctly, behaving themselves. just not the time or place

I think Biden should step aside, but I appear to be much, much more cynical and doubtful about Harris' odds than most of you. I mean, she should be a better candidate, but remembering how much electing a black president broke the brains of 40% of this country, I just don't see us electing a woman of color at this particular juncture in American history.

hence why I posted Adam Johnson a couple days ago. The emergent coalitions in the last week has startled me!

xpost to k3vin

remembering how much electing a black president broke the brains of 40% of this country, I just don't see us electing a woman of color at this particular juncture in American history.

Believe me I understand, but I well remember a local pundit in November 2007 saying Obama had no chance because his name was BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA. If the circumstances are desperate, racists will look past their prejudices.

Again, I would absolutely love to be proven wrong. And maybe my cynical vibes are colored heavily by my two recent trips to very rural America, but I'm extremely skeptical about her chances right now.

i think it's crucial to not look past the part that Trump is despised more than Biden, but he projects a shallow type of strength that does actually appeal to low info voters, or voters who prefer to have a strong leader for America over a moral leader. I don't really doubt Harris' strength tbh, and she's far more likable than either of these two guys, and after watching these two wheeze their way through the past few months, don't you think she'd be a shot in the arm?

https://www.slowboring.com/p/i-was-wrong-about-biden

on the topic of strange coalitions, yglesias has fallen. it’s long and not paywalled so I won’t bother quoting it. but it’s worth reading, however you might feel about him (not a fan personally)

You're not at all cynical, jon.

Hey, listen, I posted my experience yesterday of spying my first JOE AND HIS HO MUST GO sign two blocks from me.

Anyway, I'm out, y'all. I'm meeting with local Dems on extremely local races. I'm going partly because I'm dying to feel the room.

don't you think she'd be a shot in the arm?

Absolutely! She'd be a great candidate! And a better president than either of our options! I just have trouble reconciling her strengths with the racist shithole that is America. Couple that with, as brought up again earlier, the Electoral College given more strength to rural voters and well, I'm very skeptical. But I'll silence my naysaying on that point and hope to be proven wrong.

Good luck fighting the good fight Alfred!

i def don't think Harris is a sure thing, just a much better bet. and she really just needs to energize the voters in several key states vs winning over vast numbers of folks who would likely already not vote for Biden and/or vote for Trump. bringing in Harris is a trick play on offense which is perhaps already telegraphed, but you've otherwise got an exhausted Biden defense being pushed and pushed back.

weird detail in LBJ's wikipage: Although it was not made public at the time, Johnson was worried about his failing health and was concerned that he might not live through another term. The previous year, in 1967, he secretly commissioned an actuarial study that accurately predicted he would die at age 64.

Oh damn (re LBJ)

I’m working my way through the Caro books and a constant theme is Johnson’s fear of dying young of a heart attack (which happened to men in his family), of never having enough time.

Lyndon Johnson knew that men in his family died quite young as a rule. It was always on his mind.

Biden’s mum was very long lived.

My Beltway friend mentioned Parkinson’s as a possibility because of the ‘frozen’ quality of his face.

(xposts) Ditto Mickey Mantle--why he said he never bothered taking care of himself.

My Beltway friend mentioned Parkinson’s as a possibility because of the ‘frozen’ quality of his face.

― guillotine vogue (suzy), Monday, July 8, 2024 2:04 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

there are certainly some strong signs, this included. but it is a tricky diagnosis to make, and at minimum a hands-on examination is required, and almost always the diagnosis is made retroactively, after you have started specific medical therapy and considered whether the symptoms have improved. there are no blood tests or radiographic scans that can either rule in or rule out the disease with any acceptable degree of certainty

cognitive effects aren’t always part of Parkinson’s especially early on iirc

i def don't think Harris is a sure thing, just a much better bet.

I think Biden-Trump always was (and possibly still is) a 50-50 proposition and think it is unrealistic to believe that Harris would be better than that, no matter how it might make people here feel better (maybe me included).

my mom watched my dad deteriorate with Parkinson's and she thought it was that when she saw the debate too.
I also think his face is frozen from botox/face lifts/idk what -- he looks like he is about to pop.

do you think any republican women in anti-abortion red states might vote for harris? over trump...? i wonder about that. an abortion protest vote.