US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

Well yeah, Trump’s comments when unedited are also word salad. The media though helps him by cleaning it up.

Can't really draw any parallels with the French vote because the circumstances are so different, but I'm going to anyway lol — it's nice to see the left (broadly defined) adapt to circumstances on the ground in the midst of an election and get its shit together to apparently beat back the far right.

Meanwhile, Nadler and others now joining the "step aside" caucus. How long can this go on? I really feel he's basically dead man walking at this point, how could a campaign actually recover from this?

NEWS from @heatherscope @JakeSherman & me: Reps. Jerry Nadler, Mark Takano, Don Beyer and Adam Smith said Biden should step aside as Democratic nominee during a private leadership call this afternoon. Most said Kamala Harris should be the nominee

— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) July 7, 2024

I transcribe a lot of interviews. Everyone talks like that when you lay it out word by word. EVERYONE. That's why you don't run unedited transcripts unless you're deliberately trying to make the person seem like a fool.

how would you edit the biden quote in scott’s post?

Unedited Biden transcripts are less damning than hearing it out loud.

which is why you've got Resistance Libs like the Mueller podcast woman hatching QAnon conspiracies about how his debate audio was edited

I'd vote for Biden 100 times out of 100 versus Trump, but whenever he's giving one of his shouty speeches he just sounds like Abe Simpson rambling on.

xp when you remember that these are the same ratfuckers who sabotaged Carter's rescue helicopters in 1979, that doesn't seem that farfetched tbh. I considered the possibility that he was drugged. still think Harris is the best choice tho.

I think having the debate was such a terrible idea, I'm not sure why anyone would want to give Trump a platform, to tacitly validate him as a legitimate candidate, even if he is the nominee. At this point, he's not going to say anything to make people say, whoa this guy seems like trouble vote for Biden. The major risk and the debate, and it was something I was always worried about, was Biden needing to think on his feet and engage swiftly and skillfully with a guy who has done nothing but make appearances in front of crowds for years. They were worried about Joe gaffing it up in his first VP debate with Palin, and that was 16 years ago. Anyway at this point, as stated multiple times before it reinforces everyone's fears about him if you're a Democrat, and the hopes for his performance if you're Republican. I think there's no worse than a 50/50 chance that Harris will be the nominee, and I think if she is they might be slow walking it because they want to have everything lined up in a way that will seem coordinated, not desperate, respectful, and prepared. And Harris herself needs to be prepared too. And they want to do it in a way that makes it seem both that Biden is capable of fulfilling his term, while giving a thoughtful reason for stepping aside for a second term, beyond just this performance.

which is why you've got Resistance Libs like the Mueller podcast woman hatching QAnon conspiracies about how his debate audio was edited

There were also conspiracies about the lighting and camera angles, and now it turns out (according to that WaPo article that z_tbd posted upthread) that Biden showed up to the CNN studio late and "never learned where to look on the split screen when his opponent spoke."

I think having the debate was such a terrible idea, I'm not sure why anyone would want to give Trump a platform, to tacitly validate him as a legitimate candidate, even if he is the nominee.

I agree with this. The best thing he could have done — something that would have roused Democratic voters, infuriated the press, and caused Trump to erupt in fits of sputtering rage for weeks — would have been to offer a simple four-word statement: "I don't debate criminals."

I think having the debate this early was a huge favor to Democrats, if they're capable of capitalizing on it. If we were in September, it would be entirely over.

The problem is not the debate or the media or the low-information voters — those are just given parts of the landscape. The problem is having a bad and weak candidate.

Well I think having the debate was the problem, if the Democratic party was going forward with this guy. they needed to work around it to avoid the worst possible scenario. Even engaging in the debate was something I was worried about ahead of time because it seemed like a potential catastrophic unforced error. Biden is of course everything you say he is, but Trump is worse. Now obviously I think going forward with Biden when they had four years to figure out who could take the baton is a slowly unfolding unforced error, but once they we're stuck with him they really needed to avoid any situation where Trump would come off as better.

You don't go into a presidential campaign with a candidate you have to hide and protect from public exposure. That's the actual problem.

Meanwhile, speaking of Sorkin fantasies, this sounds like a dumb idea: https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2024/blitz-primary-could-open-up-democratic-race-if-biden-drops-out

Some people are wildly overshooting how much people care about Trump being a convicted felon. Everyone has known he's a crook for decades and much of the country assumes all politicians are crooks anyway. The idea that Joe could win if he hammered that point over and over is absurd.

They were worried about Joe gaffing it up in his first VP debate with Palin, and that was 16 years ago.

I think this was fear that the guy who ran the Anita Hill questioning might come off like a prick debating a woman.

Trump people are literally selling "I'm voting for the felon" T-shirts. I don't know how many they're selling, but it is not the knockout punch people want it to be. I do think it matters, I think there are people who are less likely to vote for him because of it. But it's not disqualifying to a sizable number of voters, obviously.

I think having the debate this early was a huge favor to Democrats,

I've said a couple times that had this happened in September we'd be getting used to a second Trump term.

But, no, it shouldn't have happened at all. The press spun it as A-HA TRUMP GOT OUTFOXED BY AGREEING TO BIDEN'S TERMS!

The “blitz primary” would involve weekly forums with each candidate moderated by cultural icons (Michelle Obama, Oprah, and Taylor Swift are among the names floated in the memo) in order to engage voters.

Lol Taylor wouldn’t come within a hundred miles of this

I think Harris would likely wipe the floor with Trump in a debate, she probably has some skill set pitfalls she would need to avoid and traps she would not want to fall into, but if she was well prepared (and I don't doubt that there would never be a more prepared debate candidate considering the stakes and the situation), she could come out pretty far ahead. But that's all what if at this point while we're stuck in this situation.

*would ever be

My guess is he withdraws by the middle of this week or not at all. Congress comes back on Monday and they’re all going to go on the record one way or the other then.

(or was that right? You get my meaning...)

With ballots not being set and no final convention vote I can't see Republicans successfully obstructing Harris from the ballot anywhere but redoing primaries months after the fact seems like something that might actually violate state election codes.

I think the "blitz primary" idea is not to do a real primary with voters, it would just be with delegates. It seems totally unworkable to me and also I can't imagine why Harris would agree to such a thing. If Biden gets out, Harris is not going to be all like "let the people decide," she's going to aggressively make the case for why it should be her.

I transcribe a lot of interviews. Everyone talks like that when you lay it out word by word. EVERYONE. That's why you don't run unedited transcripts unless you're deliberately trying to make the person seem like a fool.

somehow I doubt that the interviews you transcribe are from people who have a team to prepare them for the interviews, with the objective of convincing millions of people that they are competent and and clear-headed. He's a politician for god's sake, performing competency and authority is half the job, and he used to be able to do it easily, and he can't anymore!

ignore my extremely competent formatting, i meant to do that

We should promise Joe that we'll give him credit for the 4D chess move of staying in until it was too scary and thus getting the Copmala Left on board with her candidacy. Just about everyone I've seen who was making barred out VP jokes is like "no, yeah, put her in coach she's a functional person."

Biden must formally release his delegates before they can vote for anyone else on the first ballot at the convention. If not, he has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. Unlikely he'll die before then so it's totally in his hands.

It is clear from his public statements that his self-image and pride are telling him he's a good president, his brain is just fine, and people should shut up about his dropping out. It will take considerable pressure from Dem leadership to alter his determination to proceed. Could still happen, though.

That "blitz primary" idea is just a stupid non-starter ginned up by people who fear Kamala can't win and are desperate to find an alternative that looks like a halfway legitimate process. Here news for them: vice presidents are designed to step into the vacancy left by a departing president. It's why they exist. Kamala was voted into that position. She is the only one endowed with that kind of legitimacy. It's Biden or it's Kamala. Them's the options, but only Biden has the power to decide it's not going to be him. That's it in a nutshell.

Yeah exactly, Harris has put in the time as VP and absolutely can claim that mantle under these circumstances. If there had been an open primary, of course other candidates would not have just handed it to her, but this is a different situation. And I think people like Newsom and Whitmer are probably (?) smart enough to understand that. Even if it potentially means them having to wait til 2032 to run.

Has Kamala been asked about any of this? Released any kind of statement?

well there's Z_tbd's post upthread, but that was Tuesday, a lot has changed since then

The only quote I've seen from her was the "It's about our fucking democracy" line from the meeting with Dem governors. She can't possibly say anything at this point that could be leaked anywhere, she has to be the completely loyal lieutenant unless Biden withdraws. Otherwise she'll look conniving and power hungry, which would be very bad regardless of the outcome.

(sorry I meant his WaPo link from a post 6 hours ago, not a post from Tuesday)

yes tipsy otm

to borrow frogbs' analogy, the QB that's gonna be the new one doesn't mention that before the ink has dried, it's just bad form

Well of course just wondering if any journalists have attempted to eke out anything telling from her eg "if Joe steps down would you accept the nomination?" etc

the only answer she could give to that would be "Joe's not going anywhere. next question."

Harris was born in October '64, I'm gonna give her a few months credit and say she'd be the first Gen X president if she managed to get elected.

The script is a museum piece. She can't say a word, not one, about Biden or his legacy other than continuing it.

October 1964 means she started kindergarten in the 1969/70 school year along with all the gen X born Jan-August 1965.

Trump being the first two-time loser since Adlai Stevenson would be great, above and beyond the losing. What a bizarre pairing--they'd have so much to talk about.

No surprises, but Biden can’t even do radio interviews without his handlers prepping the questions in advance

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/07/media/biden-interview-radio-host-philadelphia/index.html

Trump people are literally selling "I'm voting for the felon" T-shirts. I don't know how many they're selling, but it is not the knockout punch people want it to be. I do think it matters, I think there are people who are less likely to vote for him because of it. But it's not disqualifying to a sizable number of voters, obviously.

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Sunday, July 7, 2024 4:34 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

“I heard sleepy joe wouldn’t debate me because they’re saying I’m a felon. well you know folks, there's a lot of felons out there, some are saying there might be too many felons out there actually. some of them are very nice people from what I’ve heard. someone told me sleepy joe himself might have something to do with that”

Is it uncommon to vet questions in advance? Feel like if I was President of the USA I'd want to be prepared. Wouldn't matter if it was TV, Radio, Newspaper, or whatever.

Yeah, it's bad journalism. Guarantee you Stephanopoulos did not show them any questions in advance.

I honestly think the majority of Dems in Congress will call for Biden to exit this week

The more this is negotiated behind the scenes and Biden is given every chance to bow out gracefully with a big bundle of red roses in his arms and a cheering audience of Democratic elected officials to see him off the election stage, the better this will turn out in the end. Sadly, Democrats aren't known for choreographing this sort of dance, where the chorus line is all smiles and high-stepping in unison, but they need to learn how to do just that, and quickly.