US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

this washington post piece reads kind of like a post-mortem. don't think i'd seen the harris quote before

It took until Tuesday afternoon for Biden to start contacting Democratic leaders. The only outreach some rank-and-file members received was a Wednesday polling update from Hillary Beard, the Biden campaign’s House members director. She wrote that any drop in the polls was “a moment in time, not a reshaping of the race.” Campaign volunteer sign-ups had jumped threefold. Ninety-five percent of recent donations came in under $200.

“The talking points suck, totally suck,” the member added. “They did a terrible job after the debate. Terrible.”

Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the best vote counter of her generation, knew right away. “I think it’s a legitimate question to say, ‘Is this an episode or is this a condition?’” she said Tuesday, opening the floodgates. Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) called for Biden to do town halls. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said people need to know that Biden and his team “are being candid with us.”

A Wednesday meeting with Democratic governors, demanded by the governors themselves, surfaced more concern. All still publicly supported him, some effusively. But the governors of Maine and New Mexico said their states could be competitive in the presidential race. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told Biden that people had come to him with a message: Tell Biden to drop out.

Vice President Harris, once an afterthought and a punchline in the party, was enjoying a swell of support, as most party leaders concluded she was the only viable alternative — the only candidate who could claim incumbency and spend the money Biden raised.

In the governor’s meeting she found her voice, demanding everyone get behind Biden. “This is about our f---ing democracy,” she declared, a prosecutor once again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/06/biden-debate-white-house-campaign/
gift link: https://wapo.st/4f3LCBI

Would love President Harris barking, "This is about our f---ing democracy!" to Trump onstage in September.

depends on who is not turning out obv

― c u (crüt), Sunday, 7 July 2024 11:11 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

biden’s lead among voters who voted in 2020 and 2022 midterms is +5, trumps lead among voters who haven’t voted since 2016 is +14. since the former group are almost certain to vote in 2024, high turnout means the share of the latter group increases

Yeah I’ve seen that in a number of polls and it gives me some hope, given that 2020 was an all time high in turnout I really don’t think there are gonna be as many 2020 non voters as these polls think. They have Trump winning the 18-29 demo too and uhhh I’m a little skeptical of that

“When you are talking to him, it feels like you are talking to grandpa because of his age,” the person said. “He is clear, but he is grandpa clear.”

yeah, that quote was brutal. :(

forgive my ignorance, but has there ever been a US presidential election where the candidates were the same two candidates as the previous one?

1892.

1956 and 1904 and 1908 had the same candidates but only one had been president.

ha, I knew you wouldn't fail me

I'm sorry -- cross out 1904 and 1908.

also eisenhower v adlai stevenson in 1952-56. i never understood how stevenson got nominated a second time after ike got like 80% of the votes the first time

1900 was a repeat of McKinley vs. Bryan

Fun fact: Adlai Stevenson was Penelope Tree’s mother’s lover circa 1952

i couldn't help but stare at this from the transcript.

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Yeah, look. The whole way I prepared, nobody's fault, mine. Nobody's fault but mine. I, uh-- I prepared what I usually would do sittin' down as I did come back with foreign leaders or National Security Council for explicit detail. And I realized--bout partway through that, you know, all-- I get quoted the New York Times had me down, at ten points before the debate, nine now, or whatever the hell it is. The fact of the matter is, what I looked at is that he also lied 28 times. I couldn't-- I mean, the way the debate ran, not-- my fault, no one else's fault, no one else's fault.

but you know who IS on message like a pointer dog with a laser pointer in its mouth...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-IedbD0q8

Well yeah, Trump’s comments when unedited are also word salad. The media though helps him by cleaning it up.

Can't really draw any parallels with the French vote because the circumstances are so different, but I'm going to anyway lol — it's nice to see the left (broadly defined) adapt to circumstances on the ground in the midst of an election and get its shit together to apparently beat back the far right.

Meanwhile, Nadler and others now joining the "step aside" caucus. How long can this go on? I really feel he's basically dead man walking at this point, how could a campaign actually recover from this?

NEWS from @heatherscope @JakeSherman & me: Reps. Jerry Nadler, Mark Takano, Don Beyer and Adam Smith said Biden should step aside as Democratic nominee during a private leadership call this afternoon. Most said Kamala Harris should be the nominee

— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) July 7, 2024

I transcribe a lot of interviews. Everyone talks like that when you lay it out word by word. EVERYONE. That's why you don't run unedited transcripts unless you're deliberately trying to make the person seem like a fool.

how would you edit the biden quote in scott’s post?

Unedited Biden transcripts are less damning than hearing it out loud.

which is why you've got Resistance Libs like the Mueller podcast woman hatching QAnon conspiracies about how his debate audio was edited

I'd vote for Biden 100 times out of 100 versus Trump, but whenever he's giving one of his shouty speeches he just sounds like Abe Simpson rambling on.

xp when you remember that these are the same ratfuckers who sabotaged Carter's rescue helicopters in 1979, that doesn't seem that farfetched tbh. I considered the possibility that he was drugged. still think Harris is the best choice tho.

I think having the debate was such a terrible idea, I'm not sure why anyone would want to give Trump a platform, to tacitly validate him as a legitimate candidate, even if he is the nominee. At this point, he's not going to say anything to make people say, whoa this guy seems like trouble vote for Biden. The major risk and the debate, and it was something I was always worried about, was Biden needing to think on his feet and engage swiftly and skillfully with a guy who has done nothing but make appearances in front of crowds for years. They were worried about Joe gaffing it up in his first VP debate with Palin, and that was 16 years ago. Anyway at this point, as stated multiple times before it reinforces everyone's fears about him if you're a Democrat, and the hopes for his performance if you're Republican. I think there's no worse than a 50/50 chance that Harris will be the nominee, and I think if she is they might be slow walking it because they want to have everything lined up in a way that will seem coordinated, not desperate, respectful, and prepared. And Harris herself needs to be prepared too. And they want to do it in a way that makes it seem both that Biden is capable of fulfilling his term, while giving a thoughtful reason for stepping aside for a second term, beyond just this performance.

which is why you've got Resistance Libs like the Mueller podcast woman hatching QAnon conspiracies about how his debate audio was edited

There were also conspiracies about the lighting and camera angles, and now it turns out (according to that WaPo article that z_tbd posted upthread) that Biden showed up to the CNN studio late and "never learned where to look on the split screen when his opponent spoke."

I think having the debate was such a terrible idea, I'm not sure why anyone would want to give Trump a platform, to tacitly validate him as a legitimate candidate, even if he is the nominee.

I agree with this. The best thing he could have done — something that would have roused Democratic voters, infuriated the press, and caused Trump to erupt in fits of sputtering rage for weeks — would have been to offer a simple four-word statement: "I don't debate criminals."

I think having the debate this early was a huge favor to Democrats, if they're capable of capitalizing on it. If we were in September, it would be entirely over.

The problem is not the debate or the media or the low-information voters — those are just given parts of the landscape. The problem is having a bad and weak candidate.

Well I think having the debate was the problem, if the Democratic party was going forward with this guy. they needed to work around it to avoid the worst possible scenario. Even engaging in the debate was something I was worried about ahead of time because it seemed like a potential catastrophic unforced error. Biden is of course everything you say he is, but Trump is worse. Now obviously I think going forward with Biden when they had four years to figure out who could take the baton is a slowly unfolding unforced error, but once they we're stuck with him they really needed to avoid any situation where Trump would come off as better.

You don't go into a presidential campaign with a candidate you have to hide and protect from public exposure. That's the actual problem.

Meanwhile, speaking of Sorkin fantasies, this sounds like a dumb idea: https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2024/blitz-primary-could-open-up-democratic-race-if-biden-drops-out

Some people are wildly overshooting how much people care about Trump being a convicted felon. Everyone has known he's a crook for decades and much of the country assumes all politicians are crooks anyway. The idea that Joe could win if he hammered that point over and over is absurd.

They were worried about Joe gaffing it up in his first VP debate with Palin, and that was 16 years ago.

I think this was fear that the guy who ran the Anita Hill questioning might come off like a prick debating a woman.

Trump people are literally selling "I'm voting for the felon" T-shirts. I don't know how many they're selling, but it is not the knockout punch people want it to be. I do think it matters, I think there are people who are less likely to vote for him because of it. But it's not disqualifying to a sizable number of voters, obviously.

I think having the debate this early was a huge favor to Democrats,

I've said a couple times that had this happened in September we'd be getting used to a second Trump term.

But, no, it shouldn't have happened at all. The press spun it as A-HA TRUMP GOT OUTFOXED BY AGREEING TO BIDEN'S TERMS!

The “blitz primary” would involve weekly forums with each candidate moderated by cultural icons (Michelle Obama, Oprah, and Taylor Swift are among the names floated in the memo) in order to engage voters.

Lol Taylor wouldn’t come within a hundred miles of this

I think Harris would likely wipe the floor with Trump in a debate, she probably has some skill set pitfalls she would need to avoid and traps she would not want to fall into, but if she was well prepared (and I don't doubt that there would never be a more prepared debate candidate considering the stakes and the situation), she could come out pretty far ahead. But that's all what if at this point while we're stuck in this situation.

*would ever be

My guess is he withdraws by the middle of this week or not at all. Congress comes back on Monday and they’re all going to go on the record one way or the other then.

(or was that right? You get my meaning...)

With ballots not being set and no final convention vote I can't see Republicans successfully obstructing Harris from the ballot anywhere but redoing primaries months after the fact seems like something that might actually violate state election codes.

I think the "blitz primary" idea is not to do a real primary with voters, it would just be with delegates. It seems totally unworkable to me and also I can't imagine why Harris would agree to such a thing. If Biden gets out, Harris is not going to be all like "let the people decide," she's going to aggressively make the case for why it should be her.

I transcribe a lot of interviews. Everyone talks like that when you lay it out word by word. EVERYONE. That's why you don't run unedited transcripts unless you're deliberately trying to make the person seem like a fool.

somehow I doubt that the interviews you transcribe are from people who have a team to prepare them for the interviews, with the objective of convincing millions of people that they are competent and and clear-headed. He's a politician for god's sake, performing competency and authority is half the job, and he used to be able to do it easily, and he can't anymore!

ignore my extremely competent formatting, i meant to do that

We should promise Joe that we'll give him credit for the 4D chess move of staying in until it was too scary and thus getting the Copmala Left on board with her candidacy. Just about everyone I've seen who was making barred out VP jokes is like "no, yeah, put her in coach she's a functional person."

Biden must formally release his delegates before they can vote for anyone else on the first ballot at the convention. If not, he has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. Unlikely he'll die before then so it's totally in his hands.

It is clear from his public statements that his self-image and pride are telling him he's a good president, his brain is just fine, and people should shut up about his dropping out. It will take considerable pressure from Dem leadership to alter his determination to proceed. Could still happen, though.

That "blitz primary" idea is just a stupid non-starter ginned up by people who fear Kamala can't win and are desperate to find an alternative that looks like a halfway legitimate process. Here news for them: vice presidents are designed to step into the vacancy left by a departing president. It's why they exist. Kamala was voted into that position. She is the only one endowed with that kind of legitimacy. It's Biden or it's Kamala. Them's the options, but only Biden has the power to decide it's not going to be him. That's it in a nutshell.

Yeah exactly, Harris has put in the time as VP and absolutely can claim that mantle under these circumstances. If there had been an open primary, of course other candidates would not have just handed it to her, but this is a different situation. And I think people like Newsom and Whitmer are probably (?) smart enough to understand that. Even if it potentially means them having to wait til 2032 to run.

Has Kamala been asked about any of this? Released any kind of statement?