US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

tbh I just don't think the Democrats can poor-me too much on all this, however unfair anyone is being to them or Biden. Nobody made Biden run again.

Aimless, the contextual clue was "enemy combatants".

I appreciate this column by David Corn that takes seriously the risks of both options (stay in or drop out) and cautiously concludes that withdrawing in favor of Harris is the marginally better choice:

"One more public appearance like [last week's debate] would likely end Biden’s campaign. And if such an event occurred after the convention, the Democrats would be dead ducks. ... With Harris, the risks are more conventional. They are related to her talents as a politician and her ability to win over voters in those crucial states. These are matters that can be addressed—though certainly there’s no guarantee they can be surmounted."

Aimless, the contextual clue was "enemy combatants".

Forgive me if I don't read posts in order to ponder the hidden meaning of embedded "clues".

Yeah I think the Corn column is good. I agree with him about Andy Beshear as a running mate.

Yes. The Corn is pretty much where I am, which is that any approach has real potential benefits and also real ways in which it could go very wrong.

I don't think she's a good politician, Democrats will have to overcome a trust deficit related to covering for him, Republicans will try to throw up roadblocks (ballots aren't set anywhere and the convention hasn't happened, I doubt they'd have much luck)... but the alternative is a guy already widely disliked who's going to be a punchline for the next four months.

any approach has real potential benefits and also real ways in which it could go very wrong.

Something could go wrong for the Democratic Party? Come now.

Historically speaking sitting presidents often win re-election, but vice presidents who win the nomination of their party rarely win the presidency. However there is no precedent at all for an 81 year old candidate for president winning the presidency, let alone one strongly suspected of having already entered the opening stages of dementia. We are again in uncharted territory.

If Biden were to step aside and not indicate a chosen successor when his own chosen vice president is available and willing that would be bad. If he steps aside and the convention were to choose a white candidate instead of Harris, with or without Biden's blessing, that would likely alienate quite a few BIPOC voters. Realistic options to Biden or Harris don't feel possible. In the absence of a competitive primary election process to allocate delegates, it needs to be one or the other.

I just read the Corn article and see it aligns pretty much with my post, but its not like rocket science to arrive at his conclusions. The calculus is not very complicated in terms of the short list of options. It only gets complex if you want to predict which option produces a win in November.

visited my Dad at his lake house in Wisconsin's beautiful up North and I feel obligated to report that the Trump signs are still not out yet, in fact there are probably less than there were a year ago. certainly nothing like 2020 where I'd see so many it would nearly give me a panic attack. this time there were only 2, plus one person who painted "JOE AND HO GOTTA GO" on his barn (I'm assuming this was a man). idk sure feels to me that Republicans are kinda souring on Trump and are loving the fact that Biden is the focus of everything now. it gives me a little hope since if we're doing the "Biden must step aside!" talk now and it turns out we're stuck with him maybe people will just get sick of the story and we can focus again on Trump's lunacy and his threat to undo the entire country. knowing Trump's luck though Biden is probably gonna stroke out on live television with a week to go

I think the worst part of this for Biden is that he is going to be forced to play defense for the remainder of the campaign. Trump can essentially just do nothing and probably coast to a win. IDK if it is even possible for Trump to sit on his hands that long and keep his mouth shut, but that is the position he should take.

Not accounting for any legal stuff that will put Trump back in the spotlight. But I’m not optimistic that is going to happen in a timely manner.

Glimpsed my first JOE AND HO GOTTA GO on my morning walk ten minutes ago.

the Trump vs. USA decision should have had Trump in the spotlight for weeks. the media should have been holding endless roundtables on exactly how scary this is and the implications, what it says about the Court and what Trump would do with these powers. it is a major historical event! i don't know that the media "want" a Trump win, but if you wanted proof of it, you'd find it in which stories they've chosen to pursue/make over the past week.

It depends on whether you see the two stories as different (we'll cover this instead of this) or mutually reinforcing (we'd better cover this because of this).

Also, there hasn't been a lack of stories, columns, editorials, etc about that decision. It's been overshadowed by the Biden drama, sure, but it's not like nobody's paying attention. And as clemenza says, the Biden talk got a lot of extra urgency specifically because of that decision, they go together.

But it's true that Trump is clearly stepping back a little to let the Democratic conflagration play itself out, which is politically smart.

I have no idea what will happen politically in this country over the next few months - don't wanna predict outcomes or even to think about it, honestly - but for whatever reason I think overall turnout might be down relative to ‘16/‘20. This is based on no concrete evidence, so don’t come at me on that basis… but I think people are going to just be burned out and disappointed all around.

(I may retract this take but for whatever reason it’s what I’m feeling this sleepy Sunday morning).

tipsy, you may be right. I've just seen a torrent of front-page "Biden too old?" headlines, versus what you might expect in the way of unfolding "Supreme Court takes next step to establish Trump dictatorship" coverage. this is anecdotal and impressionistic from my POV though.

"you'd find it in which stories they've chosen to pursue/make over the past week"

To be fair the cable news networks have actually spent a lot of time on the Supreme Court stuff. Right now i'm watching MSNBC and they are interviewing KERMIT ROOSEVELT III about the Federalist Society and the history of how the current Supreme Court came to be.

Definitely Biden has been the top story, just saying the SCOTUS ruling hasn’t gone unnoticed (and has been explicitly discussed in a lot of the calls for Biden to step aside).

I think overall turnout might be down relative to ‘16/‘20

low turnout would be good for the dems

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/11/are-democrats-the-party-of-low-turnout-elections-now.html

depends on who is not turning out obv

The signs were definitely out in exurban SC. They smell blood down there

this washington post piece reads kind of like a post-mortem. don't think i'd seen the harris quote before

It took until Tuesday afternoon for Biden to start contacting Democratic leaders. The only outreach some rank-and-file members received was a Wednesday polling update from Hillary Beard, the Biden campaign’s House members director. She wrote that any drop in the polls was “a moment in time, not a reshaping of the race.” Campaign volunteer sign-ups had jumped threefold. Ninety-five percent of recent donations came in under $200.

“The talking points suck, totally suck,” the member added. “They did a terrible job after the debate. Terrible.”

Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the best vote counter of her generation, knew right away. “I think it’s a legitimate question to say, ‘Is this an episode or is this a condition?’” she said Tuesday, opening the floodgates. Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) called for Biden to do town halls. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said people need to know that Biden and his team “are being candid with us.”

A Wednesday meeting with Democratic governors, demanded by the governors themselves, surfaced more concern. All still publicly supported him, some effusively. But the governors of Maine and New Mexico said their states could be competitive in the presidential race. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told Biden that people had come to him with a message: Tell Biden to drop out.

Vice President Harris, once an afterthought and a punchline in the party, was enjoying a swell of support, as most party leaders concluded she was the only viable alternative — the only candidate who could claim incumbency and spend the money Biden raised.

In the governor’s meeting she found her voice, demanding everyone get behind Biden. “This is about our f---ing democracy,” she declared, a prosecutor once again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/06/biden-debate-white-house-campaign/
gift link: https://wapo.st/4f3LCBI

Would love President Harris barking, "This is about our f---ing democracy!" to Trump onstage in September.

depends on who is not turning out obv

― c u (crüt), Sunday, 7 July 2024 11:11 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

biden’s lead among voters who voted in 2020 and 2022 midterms is +5, trumps lead among voters who haven’t voted since 2016 is +14. since the former group are almost certain to vote in 2024, high turnout means the share of the latter group increases

Yeah I’ve seen that in a number of polls and it gives me some hope, given that 2020 was an all time high in turnout I really don’t think there are gonna be as many 2020 non voters as these polls think. They have Trump winning the 18-29 demo too and uhhh I’m a little skeptical of that

“When you are talking to him, it feels like you are talking to grandpa because of his age,” the person said. “He is clear, but he is grandpa clear.”

yeah, that quote was brutal. :(

forgive my ignorance, but has there ever been a US presidential election where the candidates were the same two candidates as the previous one?

1892.

1956 and 1904 and 1908 had the same candidates but only one had been president.

ha, I knew you wouldn't fail me

I'm sorry -- cross out 1904 and 1908.

also eisenhower v adlai stevenson in 1952-56. i never understood how stevenson got nominated a second time after ike got like 80% of the votes the first time

1900 was a repeat of McKinley vs. Bryan

Fun fact: Adlai Stevenson was Penelope Tree’s mother’s lover circa 1952

i couldn't help but stare at this from the transcript.

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Yeah, look. The whole way I prepared, nobody's fault, mine. Nobody's fault but mine. I, uh-- I prepared what I usually would do sittin' down as I did come back with foreign leaders or National Security Council for explicit detail. And I realized--bout partway through that, you know, all-- I get quoted the New York Times had me down, at ten points before the debate, nine now, or whatever the hell it is. The fact of the matter is, what I looked at is that he also lied 28 times. I couldn't-- I mean, the way the debate ran, not-- my fault, no one else's fault, no one else's fault.

but you know who IS on message like a pointer dog with a laser pointer in its mouth...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-IedbD0q8

Well yeah, Trump’s comments when unedited are also word salad. The media though helps him by cleaning it up.

Can't really draw any parallels with the French vote because the circumstances are so different, but I'm going to anyway lol — it's nice to see the left (broadly defined) adapt to circumstances on the ground in the midst of an election and get its shit together to apparently beat back the far right.

Meanwhile, Nadler and others now joining the "step aside" caucus. How long can this go on? I really feel he's basically dead man walking at this point, how could a campaign actually recover from this?

NEWS from @heatherscope @JakeSherman & me: Reps. Jerry Nadler, Mark Takano, Don Beyer and Adam Smith said Biden should step aside as Democratic nominee during a private leadership call this afternoon. Most said Kamala Harris should be the nominee

— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) July 7, 2024

I transcribe a lot of interviews. Everyone talks like that when you lay it out word by word. EVERYONE. That's why you don't run unedited transcripts unless you're deliberately trying to make the person seem like a fool.

how would you edit the biden quote in scott’s post?

Unedited Biden transcripts are less damning than hearing it out loud.

which is why you've got Resistance Libs like the Mueller podcast woman hatching QAnon conspiracies about how his debate audio was edited

I'd vote for Biden 100 times out of 100 versus Trump, but whenever he's giving one of his shouty speeches he just sounds like Abe Simpson rambling on.

xp when you remember that these are the same ratfuckers who sabotaged Carter's rescue helicopters in 1979, that doesn't seem that farfetched tbh. I considered the possibility that he was drugged. still think Harris is the best choice tho.

I think having the debate was such a terrible idea, I'm not sure why anyone would want to give Trump a platform, to tacitly validate him as a legitimate candidate, even if he is the nominee. At this point, he's not going to say anything to make people say, whoa this guy seems like trouble vote for Biden. The major risk and the debate, and it was something I was always worried about, was Biden needing to think on his feet and engage swiftly and skillfully with a guy who has done nothing but make appearances in front of crowds for years. They were worried about Joe gaffing it up in his first VP debate with Palin, and that was 16 years ago. Anyway at this point, as stated multiple times before it reinforces everyone's fears about him if you're a Democrat, and the hopes for his performance if you're Republican. I think there's no worse than a 50/50 chance that Harris will be the nominee, and I think if she is they might be slow walking it because they want to have everything lined up in a way that will seem coordinated, not desperate, respectful, and prepared. And Harris herself needs to be prepared too. And they want to do it in a way that makes it seem both that Biden is capable of fulfilling his term, while giving a thoughtful reason for stepping aside for a second term, beyond just this performance.