US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

But say it's an adrenaline shot and she is elevated, how would it not be a contested convention anyway? I'm asking sincerely, I don't know. Would all of the Biden delegates automatically agree to pledge to her, or would it end up being a free-for-all shit show, in which case we will surely lose

This is insane hand-wringing. If Biden announces he's withdrawing and handing the crown to the Vice President, who do you think is mounting a challenge?

Everyone will just be relieved that Biden's out.

Oh man if the New York Post gets racist enough, the Democrats might only win New York 58-42 instead of 61-39.

I’m optimistic/naive enough to think that the amount/nature of vile stuff she would be subject to would actually win her votes. Prehistoric mask off boomer stuff plus Nazi freak stuff that even moderate Romney republicans tell themselves they don’t like. Plus the endless “because of woke” stuff that bores normal people. But I don’t know how I feel about advancing “she would be a lightning rod for the worst sentiments in america” as an argument to nominate her. For one thing she’s a human being.

https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=Biden%27s+Woke+Agenda

I think it should be disregarded. Whoever is nominated will be a lightning rod.

I wonder if the Post said anything horribly racist about Obama in the summer of 2008.

But say it's an adrenaline shot and she is elevated, how would it not be a contested convention anyway? I'm asking sincerely, I don't know. Would all of the Biden delegates automatically agree to pledge to her, or would it end up being a free-for-all shit show, in which case we will surely lose

This is insane hand-wringing. If Biden announces he's withdrawing and handing the crown to the Vice President, who do you think is mounting a challenge?

Everyone will just be relieved that Biden's out.

― papal hotwife (milo z), Saturday, July 6, 2024

I don't mean to be hand wringing, if all of the delegates are on board with her, that's fine

One thing that seems plausible if you’re looking for things to handwring about is various states refusing to put her on the ballot. I’m not sure if any of the states that matter are specific concerns this year. Georgia and NC maybe?

I feel like I'm coming off as "Biden or Bust" here but the truth is, I too would feel relief and excitement if they announced tomorrow that Harris was gonna do it instead. All I'm saying is that I don't think my judgment is particuarly trustworthy and it's very easy to see myself, in that circumstance, eventually really regretting that they'd made the change, and wishing Biden were still the candidate.

there are millions of low info voters who will vote for anyone who has a chance of winning who is not Biden or trump. People really don’t want to vote for them!

I think this is the best case for a change.

Yeah, that has been the most consistent polling result. People are sick of these guys specifically.

eventually really regretting that they'd made the change, and wishing Biden were still the candidate.

totally relate to your post, but one reason i'm not feeling this way so much is i can't imagine much happening on the upside for biden between now and november. three post-debate interviews he's done so far all, while not as bad as the debate, have basically confirmed that his debate performance wasn't some freak anomaly. he's lost like 50% of the lucidity he had in 2020, his voice is shot, and his cadence has zero flow. he's okay at rallies where he takes long pauses between each thing he says and does that kinda shout-talking thing. but that's basically what we're gonna be oscillating around from here on out. he could still win if there are big negative upsets on the trump side. but in that case any candidate would benefit from those

And that’s the thing too, the reaction to the debate itself has created a new political reality. Even if you think Biden was a likely winner before the debate, there is no way to undo what’s happened since. The GOP could now run an entire campaign doing nothing but quoting Democrats and liberals calling for him to step down.

It's almost pointless, I think, to argue about whether he will or won't step aside at this point because of this.

(Which is yet another double-standard, of course: in 2016, the Democrats had lots of available soundbites of various Republicans calling Trump unelectable, including people he ran against. He could survive that, because his base lives in an alternate universe. Biden wouldn't be able to.)

Innsmouth native Ted Cruz calling you unelectable is all positive.

I don’t know if you’re joking, but she suggested that they should be bombed.

Why would I be joking? Not everyone reads everything every fucking political commentator writes. So, thank you for answering. I did not know the answer. That's why I asked the question.

tbh I just don't think the Democrats can poor-me too much on all this, however unfair anyone is being to them or Biden. Nobody made Biden run again.

Aimless, the contextual clue was "enemy combatants".

I appreciate this column by David Corn that takes seriously the risks of both options (stay in or drop out) and cautiously concludes that withdrawing in favor of Harris is the marginally better choice:

"One more public appearance like [last week's debate] would likely end Biden’s campaign. And if such an event occurred after the convention, the Democrats would be dead ducks. ... With Harris, the risks are more conventional. They are related to her talents as a politician and her ability to win over voters in those crucial states. These are matters that can be addressed—though certainly there’s no guarantee they can be surmounted."

Aimless, the contextual clue was "enemy combatants".

Forgive me if I don't read posts in order to ponder the hidden meaning of embedded "clues".

Yeah I think the Corn column is good. I agree with him about Andy Beshear as a running mate.

Yes. The Corn is pretty much where I am, which is that any approach has real potential benefits and also real ways in which it could go very wrong.

I don't think she's a good politician, Democrats will have to overcome a trust deficit related to covering for him, Republicans will try to throw up roadblocks (ballots aren't set anywhere and the convention hasn't happened, I doubt they'd have much luck)... but the alternative is a guy already widely disliked who's going to be a punchline for the next four months.

any approach has real potential benefits and also real ways in which it could go very wrong.

Something could go wrong for the Democratic Party? Come now.

Historically speaking sitting presidents often win re-election, but vice presidents who win the nomination of their party rarely win the presidency. However there is no precedent at all for an 81 year old candidate for president winning the presidency, let alone one strongly suspected of having already entered the opening stages of dementia. We are again in uncharted territory.

If Biden were to step aside and not indicate a chosen successor when his own chosen vice president is available and willing that would be bad. If he steps aside and the convention were to choose a white candidate instead of Harris, with or without Biden's blessing, that would likely alienate quite a few BIPOC voters. Realistic options to Biden or Harris don't feel possible. In the absence of a competitive primary election process to allocate delegates, it needs to be one or the other.

I just read the Corn article and see it aligns pretty much with my post, but its not like rocket science to arrive at his conclusions. The calculus is not very complicated in terms of the short list of options. It only gets complex if you want to predict which option produces a win in November.

visited my Dad at his lake house in Wisconsin's beautiful up North and I feel obligated to report that the Trump signs are still not out yet, in fact there are probably less than there were a year ago. certainly nothing like 2020 where I'd see so many it would nearly give me a panic attack. this time there were only 2, plus one person who painted "JOE AND HO GOTTA GO" on his barn (I'm assuming this was a man). idk sure feels to me that Republicans are kinda souring on Trump and are loving the fact that Biden is the focus of everything now. it gives me a little hope since if we're doing the "Biden must step aside!" talk now and it turns out we're stuck with him maybe people will just get sick of the story and we can focus again on Trump's lunacy and his threat to undo the entire country. knowing Trump's luck though Biden is probably gonna stroke out on live television with a week to go

I think the worst part of this for Biden is that he is going to be forced to play defense for the remainder of the campaign. Trump can essentially just do nothing and probably coast to a win. IDK if it is even possible for Trump to sit on his hands that long and keep his mouth shut, but that is the position he should take.

Not accounting for any legal stuff that will put Trump back in the spotlight. But I’m not optimistic that is going to happen in a timely manner.

Glimpsed my first JOE AND HO GOTTA GO on my morning walk ten minutes ago.

the Trump vs. USA decision should have had Trump in the spotlight for weeks. the media should have been holding endless roundtables on exactly how scary this is and the implications, what it says about the Court and what Trump would do with these powers. it is a major historical event! i don't know that the media "want" a Trump win, but if you wanted proof of it, you'd find it in which stories they've chosen to pursue/make over the past week.

It depends on whether you see the two stories as different (we'll cover this instead of this) or mutually reinforcing (we'd better cover this because of this).

Also, there hasn't been a lack of stories, columns, editorials, etc about that decision. It's been overshadowed by the Biden drama, sure, but it's not like nobody's paying attention. And as clemenza says, the Biden talk got a lot of extra urgency specifically because of that decision, they go together.

But it's true that Trump is clearly stepping back a little to let the Democratic conflagration play itself out, which is politically smart.

I have no idea what will happen politically in this country over the next few months - don't wanna predict outcomes or even to think about it, honestly - but for whatever reason I think overall turnout might be down relative to ‘16/‘20. This is based on no concrete evidence, so don’t come at me on that basis… but I think people are going to just be burned out and disappointed all around.

(I may retract this take but for whatever reason it’s what I’m feeling this sleepy Sunday morning).

tipsy, you may be right. I've just seen a torrent of front-page "Biden too old?" headlines, versus what you might expect in the way of unfolding "Supreme Court takes next step to establish Trump dictatorship" coverage. this is anecdotal and impressionistic from my POV though.

"you'd find it in which stories they've chosen to pursue/make over the past week"

To be fair the cable news networks have actually spent a lot of time on the Supreme Court stuff. Right now i'm watching MSNBC and they are interviewing KERMIT ROOSEVELT III about the Federalist Society and the history of how the current Supreme Court came to be.

Definitely Biden has been the top story, just saying the SCOTUS ruling hasn’t gone unnoticed (and has been explicitly discussed in a lot of the calls for Biden to step aside).

I think overall turnout might be down relative to ‘16/‘20

low turnout would be good for the dems

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/11/are-democrats-the-party-of-low-turnout-elections-now.html

depends on who is not turning out obv

The signs were definitely out in exurban SC. They smell blood down there

this washington post piece reads kind of like a post-mortem. don't think i'd seen the harris quote before

It took until Tuesday afternoon for Biden to start contacting Democratic leaders. The only outreach some rank-and-file members received was a Wednesday polling update from Hillary Beard, the Biden campaign’s House members director. She wrote that any drop in the polls was “a moment in time, not a reshaping of the race.” Campaign volunteer sign-ups had jumped threefold. Ninety-five percent of recent donations came in under $200.

“The talking points suck, totally suck,” the member added. “They did a terrible job after the debate. Terrible.”

Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the best vote counter of her generation, knew right away. “I think it’s a legitimate question to say, ‘Is this an episode or is this a condition?’” she said Tuesday, opening the floodgates. Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.) called for Biden to do town halls. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) said people need to know that Biden and his team “are being candid with us.”

A Wednesday meeting with Democratic governors, demanded by the governors themselves, surfaced more concern. All still publicly supported him, some effusively. But the governors of Maine and New Mexico said their states could be competitive in the presidential race. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told Biden that people had come to him with a message: Tell Biden to drop out.

Vice President Harris, once an afterthought and a punchline in the party, was enjoying a swell of support, as most party leaders concluded she was the only viable alternative — the only candidate who could claim incumbency and spend the money Biden raised.

In the governor’s meeting she found her voice, demanding everyone get behind Biden. “This is about our f---ing democracy,” she declared, a prosecutor once again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/06/biden-debate-white-house-campaign/
gift link: https://wapo.st/4f3LCBI

Would love President Harris barking, "This is about our f---ing democracy!" to Trump onstage in September.

depends on who is not turning out obv

― c u (crüt), Sunday, 7 July 2024 11:11 AM (forty-one minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

biden’s lead among voters who voted in 2020 and 2022 midterms is +5, trumps lead among voters who haven’t voted since 2016 is +14. since the former group are almost certain to vote in 2024, high turnout means the share of the latter group increases

Yeah I’ve seen that in a number of polls and it gives me some hope, given that 2020 was an all time high in turnout I really don’t think there are gonna be as many 2020 non voters as these polls think. They have Trump winning the 18-29 demo too and uhhh I’m a little skeptical of that

“When you are talking to him, it feels like you are talking to grandpa because of his age,” the person said. “He is clear, but he is grandpa clear.”

yeah, that quote was brutal. :(

forgive my ignorance, but has there ever been a US presidential election where the candidates were the same two candidates as the previous one?

1892.

1956 and 1904 and 1908 had the same candidates but only one had been president.

ha, I knew you wouldn't fail me