US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

I would like even just a progressive like Warren but it’s not happening. The best possible outcome for progressives this election is Kamala winning so Trump doesn’t get it. I don’t think Whitmer or Newsom would do better than her, there is no evidence for it. And they would have to fight for delegates in a messy open convention that would look bizarre from the outside and probably illegitimate. Kamala was elected to be Biden’s replacement.

I agree with that google doc, basically.

I guess I’m a KHiver even though I donated to Bernie in 2020.

Harris' obvious negative is running a shit-ass campaign in 2020. But she's been veep for three years and has total access to party machinery. Like you said, she'd start with some good will.

What did she suggest be done to them, aside from looking at them askance?

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Saturday, July 6, 2024 5:56 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don’t know if you’re joking, but she suggested that they should be bombed.

Her other obvious negative, for the record, is being CA attorney general, but that's me and many progressives, the latter of whom weren't voting for Biden-Harris anyway.

She is a neoconservative basically

Applebaum not harris

Xp alfred, biden had worse record on that issue than harris as he authored the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act. And he won.

Well, sure, he's been in public life since 1874.

I don't think you should underestimate the intangible of Biden tapping out and Harris entering, whatever the reality may be of her own appeal, at this point it would be an adrenaline shot for a lot of voters who are weary of seeing Biden as the candidate and wishing there was someone better. For someone more dynamic and sane to enter the fray when you've had these two (plus RFK Jr) would get some people onboard. I don't think it helps Trump one iota.

I personally don't have strong feelings for KM one way or another, but I think objectively she would be a plus in this particular election for the dems, and I think for whatever her reputation was the first half of this administration in the last year she's certainly I think seen in a better light, and maybe that's just in comparison to Biden and Trump, but it might be a not insignificant difference maker.

I think she would do well actually. Hillary had unique negatives and now Biden does too. Kamala doesn’t. And I think elevating her would be much less risky than a contested convention.

― treeship., Saturday, July 6, 2024

I would love to see her as president, but I disagree with your thinking that Harris doesn't have unique negatives and that she is less risky.

But say it's an adrenaline shot and she is elevated, how would it not be a contested convention anyway? I'm asking sincerely, I don't know. Would all of the Biden delegates automatically agree to pledge to her, or would it end up being a free-for-all shit show, in which case we will surely lose

totally agree w/u omar xp

Warren is not a progressive

I think the adrenaline affect among people who would (probably) vote anyway is not nothing. but the main thing is there are millions of low info voters who will vote for anyone who has a chance of winning who is not Biden or trump. People really don’t want to vote for them!

I also think she would make trump look awful and win by a lot actually.

caek also otm, unfortunately ILX is not in charge of the US, I really think we could get some things done if we were

we'd FP the Infowars guy and Joe Rogan to start with

The Infowars guy has effectively FP’d himself at this point

KM is a risk. Biden is a risk.

But say it's an adrenaline shot and she is elevated, how would it not be a contested convention anyway?

It might be! But she starts with Biden's $200+ war fund.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GR1k7r_XUAAU3Qf.jpg

This may go without saying but fuck the New York Post

I really disagree that we should refrain from nominating her for fear of the NY Post writing racist articles.

that's a plus, they are already scared of it happening

But say it's an adrenaline shot and she is elevated, how would it not be a contested convention anyway? I'm asking sincerely, I don't know. Would all of the Biden delegates automatically agree to pledge to her, or would it end up being a free-for-all shit show, in which case we will surely lose

This is insane hand-wringing. If Biden announces he's withdrawing and handing the crown to the Vice President, who do you think is mounting a challenge?

Everyone will just be relieved that Biden's out.

Oh man if the New York Post gets racist enough, the Democrats might only win New York 58-42 instead of 61-39.

I’m optimistic/naive enough to think that the amount/nature of vile stuff she would be subject to would actually win her votes. Prehistoric mask off boomer stuff plus Nazi freak stuff that even moderate Romney republicans tell themselves they don’t like. Plus the endless “because of woke” stuff that bores normal people. But I don’t know how I feel about advancing “she would be a lightning rod for the worst sentiments in america” as an argument to nominate her. For one thing she’s a human being.

https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=Biden%27s+Woke+Agenda

I think it should be disregarded. Whoever is nominated will be a lightning rod.

I wonder if the Post said anything horribly racist about Obama in the summer of 2008.

But say it's an adrenaline shot and she is elevated, how would it not be a contested convention anyway? I'm asking sincerely, I don't know. Would all of the Biden delegates automatically agree to pledge to her, or would it end up being a free-for-all shit show, in which case we will surely lose

This is insane hand-wringing. If Biden announces he's withdrawing and handing the crown to the Vice President, who do you think is mounting a challenge?

Everyone will just be relieved that Biden's out.

― papal hotwife (milo z), Saturday, July 6, 2024

I don't mean to be hand wringing, if all of the delegates are on board with her, that's fine

One thing that seems plausible if you’re looking for things to handwring about is various states refusing to put her on the ballot. I’m not sure if any of the states that matter are specific concerns this year. Georgia and NC maybe?

I feel like I'm coming off as "Biden or Bust" here but the truth is, I too would feel relief and excitement if they announced tomorrow that Harris was gonna do it instead. All I'm saying is that I don't think my judgment is particuarly trustworthy and it's very easy to see myself, in that circumstance, eventually really regretting that they'd made the change, and wishing Biden were still the candidate.

there are millions of low info voters who will vote for anyone who has a chance of winning who is not Biden or trump. People really don’t want to vote for them!

I think this is the best case for a change.

Yeah, that has been the most consistent polling result. People are sick of these guys specifically.

eventually really regretting that they'd made the change, and wishing Biden were still the candidate.

totally relate to your post, but one reason i'm not feeling this way so much is i can't imagine much happening on the upside for biden between now and november. three post-debate interviews he's done so far all, while not as bad as the debate, have basically confirmed that his debate performance wasn't some freak anomaly. he's lost like 50% of the lucidity he had in 2020, his voice is shot, and his cadence has zero flow. he's okay at rallies where he takes long pauses between each thing he says and does that kinda shout-talking thing. but that's basically what we're gonna be oscillating around from here on out. he could still win if there are big negative upsets on the trump side. but in that case any candidate would benefit from those

And that’s the thing too, the reaction to the debate itself has created a new political reality. Even if you think Biden was a likely winner before the debate, there is no way to undo what’s happened since. The GOP could now run an entire campaign doing nothing but quoting Democrats and liberals calling for him to step down.

It's almost pointless, I think, to argue about whether he will or won't step aside at this point because of this.

(Which is yet another double-standard, of course: in 2016, the Democrats had lots of available soundbites of various Republicans calling Trump unelectable, including people he ran against. He could survive that, because his base lives in an alternate universe. Biden wouldn't be able to.)

Innsmouth native Ted Cruz calling you unelectable is all positive.

I don’t know if you’re joking, but she suggested that they should be bombed.

Why would I be joking? Not everyone reads everything every fucking political commentator writes. So, thank you for answering. I did not know the answer. That's why I asked the question.

tbh I just don't think the Democrats can poor-me too much on all this, however unfair anyone is being to them or Biden. Nobody made Biden run again.

Aimless, the contextual clue was "enemy combatants".

I appreciate this column by David Corn that takes seriously the risks of both options (stay in or drop out) and cautiously concludes that withdrawing in favor of Harris is the marginally better choice:

"One more public appearance like [last week's debate] would likely end Biden’s campaign. And if such an event occurred after the convention, the Democrats would be dead ducks. ... With Harris, the risks are more conventional. They are related to her talents as a politician and her ability to win over voters in those crucial states. These are matters that can be addressed—though certainly there’s no guarantee they can be surmounted."

Aimless, the contextual clue was "enemy combatants".

Forgive me if I don't read posts in order to ponder the hidden meaning of embedded "clues".

Yeah I think the Corn column is good. I agree with him about Andy Beshear as a running mate.

Yes. The Corn is pretty much where I am, which is that any approach has real potential benefits and also real ways in which it could go very wrong.

I don't think she's a good politician, Democrats will have to overcome a trust deficit related to covering for him, Republicans will try to throw up roadblocks (ballots aren't set anywhere and the convention hasn't happened, I doubt they'd have much luck)... but the alternative is a guy already widely disliked who's going to be a punchline for the next four months.

any approach has real potential benefits and also real ways in which it could go very wrong.

Something could go wrong for the Democratic Party? Come now.

Historically speaking sitting presidents often win re-election, but vice presidents who win the nomination of their party rarely win the presidency. However there is no precedent at all for an 81 year old candidate for president winning the presidency, let alone one strongly suspected of having already entered the opening stages of dementia. We are again in uncharted territory.

If Biden were to step aside and not indicate a chosen successor when his own chosen vice president is available and willing that would be bad. If he steps aside and the convention were to choose a white candidate instead of Harris, with or without Biden's blessing, that would likely alienate quite a few BIPOC voters. Realistic options to Biden or Harris don't feel possible. In the absence of a competitive primary election process to allocate delegates, it needs to be one or the other.

I just read the Corn article and see it aligns pretty much with my post, but its not like rocket science to arrive at his conclusions. The calculus is not very complicated in terms of the short list of options. It only gets complex if you want to predict which option produces a win in November.