US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

so sharp. look how sharp! 82 years young.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRRXu4iSahw

not a teleprompter in sight...

Doesn’t need to plagiarize from others in his speeches, either

I like Harris. Like I said above, I wanted her to be the D nominee before Biden got it. That said, I do not think she can win the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump, for the following reasons:

1) If Biden steps down, the Democratic Party as a whole will be seen as having suffered a mortal wound. They will have loser stink on them. You can argue — I have, many times — that Donald Trump also has loser stink on him, but that just means this factor is a wash, that some of the advantage the Ds had just by going against Donald Trump, the man half of America hates so much they've got permanent acid reflux from it, has been taken away.

2) Kamala Harris is a black woman. The Republicans have already exposed themselves as a racist, misogynist, fascist party, but they haven't had such a ripe target yet. Also, a sizable number of so-called Democratic voters won't vote for a black woman.

3) The media, having claimed one scalp already, will go after her 50 times harder than they went after Biden, and will be so busy covering Harris's newly discovered flaws that Trump will be discussed — if at all — as the roguish scamp the press decided he was in 2015. "Oh, that Donald — what's he said this time? Don't his fans love him so!"

4) There are bureaucratic processes involved in allowing Harris to choose a vice president, some of which rely on the cooperation of the House of Representatives. The Republican members of the House will not allow these processes to go through.

If we want Harris to take over, it's literally better if Biden dies. Then at least we've got an actual national crisis which will rally people. But if Biden caves and steps down, he's gonna be perceived as a weak loser, the media is gonna continue to bash him and the Democratic Party as a whole, and the person who steps into his spot will be at best a substitute teacher, and more likely portrayed by the Times, Post, et al. as an illegitimate candidate, and that's a recipe for electoral failure. Even against a multiple felon and obvious lunatic. Even when the consequences are that we turn into El Salvador in terms of women's rights (and probably in economic terms, too; the tariff idea Trump is pushing would be literally ruinous).

if Biden caves and steps down, he's gonna be perceived as a weak loser

I think one big difference here is you assume this is not already how Biden is seen.

If your concern is for how the party appears, to me it’s hard to have a worse look than “guided by the enfeebled hand of an old man whom many party members themselves are already calling to step down.”

And that’s the thing too, the reaction to the debate itself has created a new political reality. Even if you think Biden was a likely winner before the debate, there is no way to undo what’s happened since. The GOP could now run an entire campaign doing nothing but quoting Democrats and liberals calling for him to step down.

Kamala Harris is a black woman. The Republicans have already exposed themselves as a racist, misogynist, fascist party, but they haven't had such a ripe target yet.

I still think this is an asset to the race. Masks off racist misogyny will not play well in the general. Maybe I'm naive.

Harris's newly discovered flaws

I don't think there are any newly discovered flaws. People already know what they are and they are not that bad. "willie brown's ho"? no one gives a fuck.

1) Biden has dead loser stink on him.
2) and yet she’s polling better than Biden. I just wouldn’t count on this as a given.
3) even if you buy into “the media” as a purely pro-Trump force, which it isn’t, who’s more capable of pushing back against negative media narratives, Harris or Biden. imo it’s just as likely that there’s a narrative of a revitalized campaign, big comeback story, etc.
4) their majority is tiny and there are probably enough republican reps who have close elections and don’t want to go along with this.

Agree that it would be better if he died.

Unless God wants Joe dead you should all suck it up and deal. It's the most important election ever (again) but he's paid his dues and I like him a lot.

and, as joe announced earlier today, "The Lord Almighty’s not coming down"

i love when the Lord plays a role in current events

2) and yet she’s polling better than Biden. I just wouldn’t count on this as a given.

She's polling better than Biden now, because she's a hypothetical dream candidate. The moment she actually becomes the nominee, I point you to the entire history of the United States of America.

3) even if you buy into “the media” as a purely pro-Trump force, which it isn’t, who’s more capable of pushing back against negative media narratives, Harris or Biden. imo it’s just as likely that there’s a narrative of a revitalized campaign, big comeback story, etc.

The Washington press establishment (not the same thing as the media as a whole, but for purposes of a presidential campaign the part of it that counts) is an objectively pro-Trump force. They're virulently anti-Biden, almost as strongly anti-Democrats in general, and if you can point to one single example from the last 40+ years of a media narrative of "a revitalized campaign, big comeback story, etc." that favors the Democrats, I'd love to see it.

Bill Clinton in '92 maybe?

1) If Biden steps down, the Democratic Party as a whole will be seen as having suffered a mortal wound. They will have loser stink on them. You can argue — I have, many times — that Donald Trump also has loser stink on him, but that just means this factor is a wash, that some of the advantage the Ds had just by going against Donald Trump, the man half of America hates so much they've got permanent acid reflux from it, has been taken away.

2) Kamala Harris is a black woman. The Republicans have already exposed themselves as a racist, misogynist, fascist party, but they haven't had such a ripe target yet. Also, a sizable number of so-called Democratic voters won't vote for a black woman.

both of these arguments are of the form "if you replace biden with harris, some subset of voters who would've voted for biden will no longer do so". but that doesn't matter. the argument for harris that biden is almost certain to lose, so you might as well try something else as a hail mary. even if the harris option is worse on average (although polls seem like it's better), it might have a higher spread; more chance of some "right tail" great outcome. you can't make a strong case that harris will win, but you don't need to--it just needs to be better than sticking with biden

3) The media, having claimed one scalp already, will go after her 50 times harder than they went after Biden

obviously untrue. even the partisan liberal media is shitting on biden right now 24/7. there's no way his replacement would face the same level of criticism from ideologically allied orgs as he's facing now

4) There are bureaucratic processes involved in allowing Harris to choose a vice president, some of which rely on the cooperation of the House of Representatives. The Republican members of the House will not allow these processes to go through.

isn't this only relevant if biden resigns? i thought he would most likely rescind candidacy but stay through until the end of his term

Yeah Biden’s not even likely to drop out of the race, there is no way he’ll resign. And there’s no reason for him to imo. I don’t have confidence in him serving another 4 years, but barring stroke or heart attack he can presumably serve out the term.

all he has to do is say he isn't running anymore and let the ocean take him. drift away, joe. drift away. the water and sun are warm. keeeeeep drifting....

If the Republicans did anything to make Harris's path more difficult, I would think that might be an indication they're very happy to run against Biden. If they're dying to run against her, why would they throw up an obstacle?

all he has to do is say he isn't running anymore and let the ocean take him. drift away, joe. drift away. the water and sun are warm. keeeeeep drifting....

Vote for my veep, boys, and free my soul

Like reading tea-leaves sometimes, but: "Biden seeks 'honest input' from campaign co-chairs" (CNN)--could be promising.

Once the money from big donors dries up, they’ll finally cut this selfish fuck loose

Trying to see into the discussions that take place at the center of power through the lens of what the DC press corps reports is like looking through a fog using a periscope.

Time to Roll the Dice

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/replace-biden-strategic-plan/678884/

It’s just impossible for Biden to call Trump a felon or a rapist. It just stuns me that he cannot actually those those words when speaking about him. He literally fell right on top of the “Sleepy Joe” nickname Trump has given him for the past decade

The Biden campaign can’t exactly throw around the term “rapist” given that their candidate ain’t exactly the best on that

True. The guy does seem to have gotten less “handsy” in recent years

Anne Applebaum advocated for treating Palestinian journalists as enemy combatants. I don’t really care what she says about US politics.

What did she suggest be done to them, aside from looking at them askance?

As oppposed to Biden politely asking that not TOO many Palestinian kids get murdered?

BIDEN: The only person on this stage that is a convicted felon is the man I’m looking at right now. And the fact of the matter is he is – what he’s telling you is simply not true.

The fact is that there was no effort on his part to stop what was going on up on Capitol Hill. And all those people, every one of those who were convicted, deserves to be convicted. The idea that they didn’t kill somebody, just went in and broke down doors, broke the windows, occupied offices, turned over desks, turned them over, statues – the idea that those people are patriots? Come on.

When I asked him, the first of two debates we had – debates we had the first time around, I said, will you denounce the Proud Boys? He said, no, I’ll tell them to stand by. The idea he’s refusing – will you denounce these guys? Will you denounce the people we’re talking about now? Will you denounce the people who attacked that Capitol? What are you going to do?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html

BIDEN: The idea that I did anything wrong relative to what you’re talking about is outrageous. It’s simply a lie, number one.

Number two, the idea that you have a right to seek retribution against any American just because you’re a president is wrong, is simply wrong. No president’s ever spoken like that before. No president in our history has spoken like that before.

Number three, the crimes that you are still charged with – and think of all the civil penalties you have. How many billions of dollars do you owe in civil penalties for molesting a woman in public, for doing a whole range of things, of having sex with a porn star on the night – and – while your wife was pregnant?

I mean, what are you talking about? You have the morals of an alley cat.

I still hate how they both insult Stormy Daniels. Appearing in sexual films and sex work are both more noble than being a fucking politician in America

Anne Appelbaum was someone who wrote a whole column recently about how she was at some party, and she slowly realized all of her wonderful friends were fascists

2) Kamala Harris is a black woman. The Republicans have already exposed themselves as a racist, misogynist, fascist party, but they haven't had such a ripe target yet. Also, a sizable number of so-called Democratic voters won't vote for a black woman

This is not a good argument against Harris. Of course she will not win the votes against Trump supporting white supremacists, but she doesn’t need to. The Trump camp will viciously attack whoever they are up against. I don’t think the fact that she is black will make her more vulnerable to these attacks. In fact I could see people getting pissed off by them and motivated to vote for her.

I think she would do well actually. Hillary had unique negatives and now Biden does too. Kamala doesn’t. And I think elevating her would be much less risky than a contested convention.

Shades of "you can't nominate him they'll scream socialist" right before the right spends 4-8 years calling Clinton/Obama/Biden a Castro-Maoista.

The stuff people dislike about her — awkwardness, seemingly unusual sense of humor (random laughing) — are things they could learn to like. If she was their high school principal they would like her.

I wish the Democrats would dig up an actual socialist to back

man wouldn't that be nice, not remotely kidding

A skeleton socialist

gotta be one in the closet somewhere

I would like even just a progressive like Warren but it’s not happening. The best possible outcome for progressives this election is Kamala winning so Trump doesn’t get it. I don’t think Whitmer or Newsom would do better than her, there is no evidence for it. And they would have to fight for delegates in a messy open convention that would look bizarre from the outside and probably illegitimate. Kamala was elected to be Biden’s replacement.

I agree with that google doc, basically.

I guess I’m a KHiver even though I donated to Bernie in 2020.

Harris' obvious negative is running a shit-ass campaign in 2020. But she's been veep for three years and has total access to party machinery. Like you said, she'd start with some good will.

What did she suggest be done to them, aside from looking at them askance?

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Saturday, July 6, 2024 5:56 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don’t know if you’re joking, but she suggested that they should be bombed.

Her other obvious negative, for the record, is being CA attorney general, but that's me and many progressives, the latter of whom weren't voting for Biden-Harris anyway.

She is a neoconservative basically

Applebaum not harris

Xp alfred, biden had worse record on that issue than harris as he authored the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act. And he won.

Well, sure, he's been in public life since 1874.