US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

AI can be used to polish how the president comes across, allowing voters to focus on his substance. How many times have we heard voters and pundits alike gripe that “Biden would be the perfect candidate if he were just 10 years younger?” With modern technology, this exact deliverable is possible.

This is not The Onion. They're talking about replacing Joe Biden with AI on the campaign trail. https://t.co/pVo9vaPoA6

— Prof Zenkus (@anthonyzenkus) July 3, 2024

That sounds like a Hunter idea

my jaw is on the floor

apparently the people around joe biden don't think a second trump term is as big of a danger as i do.

Jeezus, no one knows nuthin' anymore:

President Joe Biden is just 2 percentage points away from former President Donald Trump among seven swing states recently polled, despite the president's dismal debate performance last week.

Biden is still reeling from a weak showing against Trump during the first presidential debate in Atlanta last Thursday. The 81-year-old president mumbled through his administration's accomplishments and goals in a hoarse voice. Often times he struggled to give a coherent answer. Biden's team later said he had a cold and was suffering from jet lag.

In a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 1 to 5, Trump led Biden by only 2 percentage points (47 to 45 percent) among all the swing states polled—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Across all seven swing states, 4,902 registered voters were polled and there was a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage points.

Bloomberg News reported that the 2 percentage point gap between Trump and Biden is the smallest it's been since they began this type of polling in October 2023.

But:

This poll was conducted on the heels of last week's debate, which prompted calls from some prominent Democrats for Biden to drop out of the race. Of all the respondents across the seven swing states in the new Bloomberg News poll, only 17 percent thought Biden was mentally fit when thinking about the recent debate, while 49 percent thought Trump was. Trump, 78, is only three years younger than Biden and has also faced scrutiny about his age and cognitive ability.

In other words "Swing voters in these states rate the basket case slightly higher than Trump." Fucking polls.

lol well the good thing is approximately half the country wants nothing to do with Trump under any circumstances. That's obviously the best hope for any Democratic candidate. But again, it is asking a whole lot of voters to vote for someone they think is mentally unfit. It would be better not to.

But what's missing is the affirmative case for why he in particular is the best candidate for his party

I think it’s a combination of devil-you-know and that it’s already so late in the game

I’m very, very cautiously assuming the AI tweet was not posted as an endorsement of the idea, due to all of the immediately predictable ways that would backfire…but it would be funny. roman roy ass idea

Yeah, but “devil you know” is clearly working against him at this point. So really the argument becomes “We have a terrible candidate, but oh well it’s too late to do anything.” Which isn’t literally true — they could make a change — but in any case isn’t much of an “affirmative case.”

People have swallowed the AI hype that it can do anything (it cannot, but it can tell you to eat a rock daily).

by devil you know I just meant there are fewer variables to account for

The author of the AI piece btw:

Kaivan Shroff is a progressive voice and strategist with experience working for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.

Except for the one big variable that is sinking him. Biden has won before, but he has never won as an 81-year-old who 3/4 of the country thinks is unfit for office. I think that takes him out of the known quantity category.

But what's missing is the affirmative case for why he in particular is the best candidate for his party. What strengths does he bring to the ballot that no other top Democrat could bring? If there's not a good answer to that question, then the question is, does he have specific weaknesses and vulnerabilities that other top Democrats wouldn't? If the answer to that is yes — and obviously I think it is — then it's hard to say what the rational basis is for keeping him.

All right, I've eaten a really good lunch and am feeling beneficient. So amuse me. List the candidates you think would do better, and why you think that. "Kamala Harris would be better because A, B, C." "Gretchen Whitmer would be better because A, B, C." "Gavin Newsom would be better because A, B, C." Make the affirmative case for the alternates. I promise to take you seriously.

well if that’s not a good-faith engagement I don’t know what is

they are all better than biden because they don't show signs of dementia which can progress quickly.

I honestly think there is no downside to nominating anyone else. It takes age, Biden’s biggest liability, out of the equation. Running someone younger than Trump would take the question of age and fitness to his side.

I keep voting harder, but these fucking swing states are not in my control

Nominating a woman, especially in light of America being on the cusp of turning into Gilead, is the least the fucking DNC could do

What issues are these other candidates good on? What have they promised to do that would be better than what Biden has accomplished in his first term? On the other hand, what are their vulnerabilities? What repellent views do they hold that will cause leftists to immediately turn on them? What scandals plague them? You can't just say, "Here, this person is A Democratic Politician, But Not As Old. Vote for them for president!" and expect voters to line up like cattle and say, "Yup, count me in!"

Which votes currently going to Biden would not go to Generic Democrat X? Are there any? Are there “Biden or I’m staying home” voters? If that number is zero or negligible — and I haven’t heard any argument for why it’s not — then any candidate who most voters don’t think is physically/mentally unfit would have the advantage of voters not thinking they’re physically/mentally unfit. Not a small thing imo.

"Kamala Harris would be better because A, B, C."

Mehdi Hasan:

On Friday, the day after the debate, Data for Progress published a poll showing Harris performing “the same as Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Trump”. By Tuesday, a CNN poll was showing Harris, unlike Biden, “within striking distance” of Trump, thanks in part to “broader support from women (50% of female voters back Harris over Trump v 44% for Biden against Trump) and independents (43% Harris v 34% Biden)”.

You might not want to believe it, and lazy pundits may say otherwise, but the polling is pretty clear these days: Harris actually has a better chance than Biden of beating Trump. And, unlike the president, the veep’s numbers have – and you’ll be hearing this phrase a great deal in the coming days – room to grow.

Second, there’s her record. With the exception of Biden himself, Harris has served in elected office – as a district attorney, state attorney general, senator and vice-president – longer than any Democrat elected to the White House in my lifetime. As a former prosecutor, she is ideally positioned to make the case against Trump, a convicted felon.

Who do you want standing on stage at the second debate in September, rebutting Trump’s lies, bigotry and nonsense? The woman who went viral when she grilled Bill Barr and Brett Kavanaugh at the Senate judiciary committee, or the man who went viral for saying he’d “beat Medicare”? Who is more likely to highlight Trump’s deeply unpopular stance on abortion? A female candidate who has spent months hammering Trump on abortion and made a historic visit to a Planned Parenthood clinic, or a male candidate who couldn’t answer a simple question on abortion rights without going off on a weird and incoherent tangent about a migrant murderer? Who is going to bring more energy to the Democratic presidential campaign – a vice-president who recently urged an audience of young voters to “kick that fucking door down”, or a president who is only “dependably engaged” between 10am and 4pm?

Third, there’s the Gaza-shaped elephant in the room. Prior to last week’s debate, it wasn’t Biden’s age that I considered to be his biggest electoral liability. It was his horrific stance on Gaza, from his non-stop supply of arms to Israel to his nonexistent “red line” on Rafah. Support for Biden among not just Muslim-American and Arab-American voters, but young and Black voters, has been plummeting since 7 October 2023. More than half a million “uncommitted” Democratic voters, who could affect the results in multiple swing states, have urged the president to end his unconditional support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

Given Biden refuses to budge on this issue, a Harris candidacy might offer a fresh start for Democrats on Gaza. Remember the headline in Politico from December? “Kamala Harris pushes White House to be more sympathetic toward Palestinians.” Or the NBC News reporting from March on how Biden’s national security council “toned down parts of her speech” calling for a ceasefire, because the original draft “was harsher on Israel”?

“She is definitely better on Gaza than he is,” a well-connected member of the administration told me a few weeks ago.

To be clear: I’m not saying Joe Biden can’t win or that Kamala Harris won’t lose. I’m simply saying that there is a younger, more popular, more effective campaigner ready and willing to go, who could turn the page on Gaza while giving Trump the rhetorical drubbing he so deserves.

I’m reminding Democrats that they still have time to choose between trying to elect the oldest president in American history, whose age has become a weight around his neck, or trying to elect the first female president, the first Asian American president and the second Black president, which could energize their demoralized base.

American democracy, as Democrats themselves repeatedly tell us, is on the line. And if we all have to join the KHive in order to try to save that democracy … then so be it.

And here's the anonymous "The Case for Kamala" Google doc that's been going around:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xVQ5GXHhl58g2cE35g11llVAUuCQ8Tqa4suUlUEq0DA/edit

What you all are saying with your "I see no downside to swapping Literally Anyone Else for Biden" is that you view Biden as an empty vessel, and/or the presidency as a totally symbolic office for which there are no real qualifications besides just having the right vibe at the right time.

I mean, every conceivable woman they would nominate is center-right like Biden, save for maybe Warren (who is just an awful flip-flopper and will say anything to save her ass)

Biden is an empty vessel. He doesn’t really stand for anything, but he’s good at occasionally giving lip service for LGBTQ people (who are still being fucked over by institutionalized discrimination, poverty, and lack of access to healthcare, but, y’know, optics)

personally i think Newsom is so repellent that he might not be better. But - Kamala would be a better candidate, especially if Biden stepped down and let her take office before the election, because I think it would be a massive relief to a lot of voters to see someone in charge who looks like they're actually up to the job. This is a thing that is bothering like 80% of independent voters! And she might actually have a chance to make an impression on people because there hasn't been massive right-wing messaging about her since they've been so focused on Brandon. I don't doubt the capability of the Democrats to fuck this up but there's at least more of a chance than with Biden! Idk about the leftist reaction, i think it's split between "she's a cop" and "ehh she's a goofy empty suit," but regarding people who are justifiably angry over Gaza, the Biden admin response seems to emanate so much from his particular awfulness that Kamala might win back some votes if he wasn't on the ticket. On that front, Biden isn't an empty vessel, he's worse than average!

What you all are saying with your "I see no downside to swapping Literally Anyone Else for Biden" is that you view Biden as an empty vessel, and/or the presidency as a totally symbolic office for which there are no real qualifications besides just having the right vibe at the right time.

Not at all. It’s that we think there ARE qualifications, and physical/mental fitness and voters’ perception of it is a pretty gigantic one.

You seem to be of the opinion that it doesn’t matter that 75% of the country thinks he is not fit for office. We’ve never been in this position before, so it’s hard to know how to bet on that. But I don’t see any reason for optimism.

and/or the presidency as a totally symbolic office for which there are no real qualifications besides just having the right vibe at the right time.

lol, incredible line of attack while defending the guy that's only functional 6 hours a day

Real Salazar vibes, except no one's brave enough to give Joe a fake Oval Office

It's much harder to make a case for Biden winning another term based on his experience, competence, or character in office, if voters are more than half-convinced that dementia will make those traits disappear in the near-to-mid term future. His past record in office becomes moot under those circumstances. This is the major case for why "Literally Anyone Else for Biden" will be more favorably received by the public.

Prepare to get Ginsburned again

Starting to think that unperson and Joe Biden met on a beach in Delaware at some point and swapped spit.

And hey, i will say this: even me, the person who dislikes Cop-mala more than anyone else on this board, would prefer her as a candidate because I also believe she would win

And I would prefer to not have to think about Donald Fucking Trump ever again

If the people around Biden genuinely believe he's fine, still sharp, and not exhibiting anything more than the slowing caused by aging, but not dementia, then they still need to face the difficulty of overcoming the now-widespread perception that his behavior is indicative of a more serious decline that is likely to accelerate. Disproving that perception will consume most of his campaign's energies and distract from every other issue they want to push forward. They're in a huge bind and it is getting tighter.

As for swapping candidates being disruptive. Yes, it would be. But up until the debacle the entire campaign was in a static holding pattern with disinterest in Biden's campaign amounting to a kind of refusal to think about him because it was dispiriting to contemplate a president in his 80s. At least a younger candidate will inject massive amounts of controversy, engagement and interest.

lmao

Over the last few years, we have seen a manufacturing renaissance, driven by @KamalaHarris and @JoeBiden's investments in American workers and industry — with 800,000 manufacturing jobs added since 2021. Companies are investing in America and especially in Michigan in a big way.…

— Gretchen Whitmer (@gretchenwhitmer) July 6, 2024

the best argument for why biden should step down being made itt is unperson's posts

imo the most convincing evidence of biden's mental decline is how stubbornly he's clinging to staying in. that quote from the stephanopoulos interview where he says "if trump wins, at least i know i tried my hardest" is like how my mom talked to me when i was eight years old and got a bad grade on my science fair project, suggests he's already regressed beyond adolescence. i feel like everyone except his dumbest and/or most loyal supporters can see that he's lost

so sharp. look how sharp! 82 years young.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRRXu4iSahw

not a teleprompter in sight...

Doesn’t need to plagiarize from others in his speeches, either

I like Harris. Like I said above, I wanted her to be the D nominee before Biden got it. That said, I do not think she can win the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump, for the following reasons:

1) If Biden steps down, the Democratic Party as a whole will be seen as having suffered a mortal wound. They will have loser stink on them. You can argue — I have, many times — that Donald Trump also has loser stink on him, but that just means this factor is a wash, that some of the advantage the Ds had just by going against Donald Trump, the man half of America hates so much they've got permanent acid reflux from it, has been taken away.

2) Kamala Harris is a black woman. The Republicans have already exposed themselves as a racist, misogynist, fascist party, but they haven't had such a ripe target yet. Also, a sizable number of so-called Democratic voters won't vote for a black woman.

3) The media, having claimed one scalp already, will go after her 50 times harder than they went after Biden, and will be so busy covering Harris's newly discovered flaws that Trump will be discussed — if at all — as the roguish scamp the press decided he was in 2015. "Oh, that Donald — what's he said this time? Don't his fans love him so!"

4) There are bureaucratic processes involved in allowing Harris to choose a vice president, some of which rely on the cooperation of the House of Representatives. The Republican members of the House will not allow these processes to go through.

If we want Harris to take over, it's literally better if Biden dies. Then at least we've got an actual national crisis which will rally people. But if Biden caves and steps down, he's gonna be perceived as a weak loser, the media is gonna continue to bash him and the Democratic Party as a whole, and the person who steps into his spot will be at best a substitute teacher, and more likely portrayed by the Times, Post, et al. as an illegitimate candidate, and that's a recipe for electoral failure. Even against a multiple felon and obvious lunatic. Even when the consequences are that we turn into El Salvador in terms of women's rights (and probably in economic terms, too; the tariff idea Trump is pushing would be literally ruinous).

if Biden caves and steps down, he's gonna be perceived as a weak loser

I think one big difference here is you assume this is not already how Biden is seen.

If your concern is for how the party appears, to me it’s hard to have a worse look than “guided by the enfeebled hand of an old man whom many party members themselves are already calling to step down.”

And that’s the thing too, the reaction to the debate itself has created a new political reality. Even if you think Biden was a likely winner before the debate, there is no way to undo what’s happened since. The GOP could now run an entire campaign doing nothing but quoting Democrats and liberals calling for him to step down.

Kamala Harris is a black woman. The Republicans have already exposed themselves as a racist, misogynist, fascist party, but they haven't had such a ripe target yet.

I still think this is an asset to the race. Masks off racist misogyny will not play well in the general. Maybe I'm naive.

Harris's newly discovered flaws

I don't think there are any newly discovered flaws. People already know what they are and they are not that bad. "willie brown's ho"? no one gives a fuck.

1) Biden has dead loser stink on him.
2) and yet she’s polling better than Biden. I just wouldn’t count on this as a given.
3) even if you buy into “the media” as a purely pro-Trump force, which it isn’t, who’s more capable of pushing back against negative media narratives, Harris or Biden. imo it’s just as likely that there’s a narrative of a revitalized campaign, big comeback story, etc.
4) their majority is tiny and there are probably enough republican reps who have close elections and don’t want to go along with this.

Agree that it would be better if he died.

Unless God wants Joe dead you should all suck it up and deal. It's the most important election ever (again) but he's paid his dues and I like him a lot.

and, as joe announced earlier today, "The Lord Almighty’s not coming down"