US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

I don't think mega-donors have nearly as much sway over this kind of decision as the long term political insiders Biden trusts most, who understand what it takes to win elections. if the media frenzy and polling numbers take on the aspect of a landslide that will bury Biden, those kind of insiders will start telling him he's toast with near unanimity; he'd listen to their perspective, carefully check it against his own sense of political reality and might actually step aside.

In that Ari Emanuel interview he talks about his own father — we're going to get so many think pieces about this whole thing, because so many people of think-piece-writing age are also dealing with aging family.

i feel bad you man now fucking win

We need that on T-shirts.

I don't think Biden is destined to be a victim of a media frenzy or bad polling numbers, as much as I see you would all seem to relish it for some reason.

He is competent and he will survive and go on to win the nomination and win the election. Replacing him by Harris or whoever else will just result in endless lawsuits brought by the Federalist Society in various states (Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona etc - see the Notus article, which is scary) and will cause chaos. Any replacement candidate would just be starting with nothing, no campaign funds or support 3 months before the election. It's not going to happen

He is competent

citation needed

you would all seem to relish it

no we are seriously fucking concerned that he is obviously not up to the job... did you watch that debate?

3 months before the election

four months

playing by the rules hasn't worked very well so far for the non-fascists, perhaps something new is in order

Ari Emanuel is one of Elon's BFFs

There’s no rule a dog can’t run for president

sleeve, I would just ask what alternative you propose that seriously could work at this late date? All of the "but what about so-and-so" arguments are not going to cut it at this point

it's not ideal

The obvious answer has been floated pretty much everywhere — Harris. I agree that it still seems pretty unlikely it will happen. But it's not like there's not an answer to your question. Yes, lots of people think she (or anyone, but she's good, she's fine) would be a better candidate. You don't, I get it.

You're wrong about there being personal animus to Biden in any of this, though. This is personal in the sense that a lot of people think he's the wrong person for this election, but that's because of entirely pragmatic and practical concerns. As I've said, if he was polling at 60 percent, I'd be so happy. 50 percent I would take. He's nowhere close and going lower. We can argue all we want about why that is, but his apparent diminished capacity is near the top of most of people's lists. And that's not something that gets better with more time.

Playing by the rules got us a 6-3 Supreme Court. Fuck civility and “staying high”

Dan S, do you have a link to the notus.org article you think people should read?

I hadn't heard this about a potential legal challenge to Harris' candidacy, just to the others.

nah I think we all need to stay high if we're gonna make it through this

Also to Dan, there's the issue that a lot of people (me included) do think he's not just too old to win — which is the main and urgent concern — but also just that he's too old to do this. Assuming he stays in, I hope he wins, but if he actually exceeds my expectations and does that, we still have a huge number of ongoing fights — climate, abortion, economy, education — that it's going to be important to have strong and popular leadership for. And I just don't see that happening. Instead it'll be some kind of ongoing senescence watch. So even the best-case scenario with Biden here is not that great!

that article was linked upthread, tbf it did have one major asterisk which is that the Dems haven't had their convention meaning they haven't actually nominated anyone yet so I'm not sure what these legal challenges would be based on, if they try to swap candidates afterwards though it would probably be a giant mess

I don't think mega-donors have nearly as much sway over this kind of decision as the long term political insiders Biden trusts most, who understand what it takes to win elections. if the media frenzy and polling numbers take on the aspect of a landslide that will bury Biden, those kind of insiders will start telling him he's toast with near unanimity; he'd listen to their perspective, carefully check it against his own sense of political reality and might actually step aside.

― more difficult than I look (Aimless), Wednesday, July 3, 2024 7:13 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

I feel like everything is going to be more clear after a couple of weeks. obviously pollsters are gonna be chomping at the bit to see if Kamala really does have that much higher of a chance and if they are consistently showing that she does - which seems possible, given that Biden is trailing every Dem Senate candidate - I have to think he would at least be open to the idea. if he stays in and loses, that more than anything else will be his legacy. fwiw I do think Biden still has decent political instincts somehow, I don't think what he's saying right now means he's absolutely staying in...he knows if he leaves any room for doubt, the fever pitch gets that much higher, and as many have said in a situation like this "if you have 2 quarterbacks you have none"...he's the guy until he isn't.

if a pope can resign just because he feels the job has become more than he can handle, so can a president. but my feeling is that this isn't what will happen. the dog has barked, but the caravan will move on.

https://www.notus.org/2024-election/biden-heritage-republicans

Then there's this shit. Fuck you Biden, fuck everybody around him.

Republicans. They can fuck off too. That goes without saying.

― Cow_Art, Wednesday, July 3, 2024 11:26 AM bookmarkflaglink

Ok, thanks.

That article didn't link to the memo it was reporting on. I could look the memo itself up but I don't think that sounds like a serious legal impediment to a potential Harris nomination.

I could look at it further but it would be kind of hilarious for the Heritage Foundation or whoever to spend a lot of time and money to keep Biden *on* the ballot while Democrats tried to keep Trump *off* the ballot in various states. It looks like a wash to voters, or that they don't have a lot of confidence in Trump. I doubt they would do this, and if they really were planning to, they should just do it rather than tell everybody about their legal strategy and give the opponents time to prepare.

The Heritage Foundation fighting to keep a Black woman off the ballot in Georgia would be pretty on-the-nose even for those guys. (Which means they will 100% do it, of course.)

you're wrong about there being personal animus to Biden in any of this, though. This is personal in the sense that a lot of people think he's the wrong person for this election, but that's because of entirely pragmatic and practical concerns.

I think that's largely true though obviously there are a lot of people on the left who hate biden. I used to hate the guy and have grown to like and respect him after his VP stint where I think he was pretty effective and I think he became much more likeable as a human being the older he's gotten, until now. This is frankly a tragedy, and I wish he'd had the foresight to have declared 2 years ago he wouldn't run and the DNC could have prepped Harris for the nomination. Kicking the can down the road was insane in hindsight.

this thread makes me so depressed.

xp to tipsy

True, but "keep a black woman off the ballot" is obviously not a law to which the Heritage Foundation can or is citing.

I just spent a few minutes looking for this memo on their website and gave up. If anyone finds this memo, I will take a look, but anyone can sue anyone for anything and get sanctioned/disbarred/disciplined/arrested like a bunch of the election lawsuit lawyers did.

re: Notus:

“If the Biden family decides that President Biden will not run for re-election, the mechanisms for replacing him on ballots vary by state,” reads the memo. “There is the potential for pre-election litigation in some states that would make the process difficult and perhaps unsuccessful.”

The upshot was that replacing Biden on the ticket would be “extraordinarily difficult” Oversight Project Executive Director Mike Howell, who authored the memo, told NOTUS this week.

With Biden’s odds of winning looking longer by the minute, organizations like Heritage are pledging litigation to make replacing Biden close to impossible. They suggested they — or their allies — would challenge efforts to replace Biden on the ballot, which would already be difficult given the timing.

“The problem that any potential replacement for Joe Biden would likely run into is that in many states, including in several key states, the deadline for getting on the ballot has already passed,” Zack Smith, a senior legal fellow at Heritage, told NOTUS. “Or in many states, the process for replacing a candidate currently on the ballot just isn’t clearly defined because it happens so rarely.”

The memo identifies Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia as attractive states for litigation to keep a new Democrat from replacing Biden on the ballot.

Kendrick 2024

The Heritage Foundation fighting to keep a Black woman off the ballot in Georgia would be pretty on-the-nose even for those guys. (Which means they will 100% do it, of course.)

― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, July 3, 2024 6:59 PM bookmarkflaglink

That ship sailed in 2020. There was a black woman on "the ballot" and she is the current Veep. Maybe they didn't get the memo.

here's the memo on twitter:

https://t.co/ifTNCjpRVD

— Oversight Project (@OversightPR) June 24, 2024

The people on the left who hate Biden are going to hate every possible replacement equally, the idea that it’s animating any of the calls for him to retire is absurd.

Thanks symsymsym, I'll take a look at their citations.

if nothing else the thing I've really started to gather from this is just how in the tank the media is for Trump, six days now of nonstop "will Biden drop out" while the SCOTUS declares Trump above the law and oh by the way it also turns out his name is all over the Epstein docs which is reminding people there was sworn testimony of a woman claiming Trump and Epstein both raped her when she was 13 and actually had a fight about who got to take her virginity. apparently there was also a girl who he raped solely on the basis that she reminded him of his 13 year old daughter. 8 years ago I didn't really believe this shit but as more and more comes out about him and what a depraved piece of shit he is I believe he really is that sick of a fucking freak. I knew the Stormy Daniels testimony reminded me of something. but nooo, can't talk about that when there's Dems in Disarray.

it's such fucking bullshit too because if you sent that debate back in time to like 2012 the reaction would be "wow Biden sounds old and tired but HOLY HELL DONALD TRUMP IS A FUCKING LUNATIC how on Earth is he in this race" and then you'd say "actually everyone just talked about how Biden needs to drop out and how Trump is definitely winning"

my assumption would be that since he's not yet the nominee, he's not yet on any ballots. he could drop out before the convention and the delegates could name someone else as the nominee. the memo was written prior to the debate frenzy and isn't positive about early withdrawal prohibiting ballot access.

I could dunk on that memo in a few different ways, but a quick look through the replies to that tweet identified Wisconsin as one of the concerns.

A web search of the Wisconsin citation (Wis. Stat. Ann. § 8.35(1)) yielded a blog post saying this election law applies only after nomination:

Wisconsin law would allow President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race and be replaced by another candidate at the party’s convention in August, according to statutes and a top legal expert. However, if Biden doesn’t drop out and the Democrats want to replace him against his will, it gets a lot more complicated.

And candidates can only be replaced after they are nominated upon death.

https://www.wisconsinrightnow.com/joe-biden-replaced-wisconsin/

So yeah I think that symsymsym's assessment is probably the correct one. I believe they seem to do a lot of FOIA, possibly vexatious litigation. I don't blame anyone for being concerned at the situation overall but this memo wouldn't be top of my list.

That ship sailed in 2020. There was a black woman on "the ballot" and she is the current Veep. Maybe they didn't get the memo.

The Heritage Foundation does not respect any memos written after about 1928.

Well no wonder their work product sucks. They also waived attorney work product doctrine by tweeting it out, so have fun in discovery, bozos.

#LFG #KHIVE

So if Trump dies this month, would it be any less legally complicated?

you're wrong about there being personal animus to Biden in any of this, though.

I had zero animosity until the debate started last Thursday night, and we seem to be doing RBG again.

As for worries that a Harris-(whomever) ticket would be blocked from the ballot by Heritage Foundation fucksticks:

The likely Dem states all have Dem governors or secretaries of state (aka, who runs their elections).

Of the the main 7 swing states - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina, all have Secretaries of State from the Democratic Party except Georgia - but both GA's governor and SOS have shown an unwillingness to be Trump toadies. So there's no real obstacles preventing a switch.

I nearly forgot we went through this in 2016

https://i.imgur.com/TWE3D8N.jpeg

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/biden-resign-kamala-harris-presidential-candidate/678886/

serwer seems like a significant media domino to fall

If we're talking Atlantic writers, I thought Anne Applebaum's call for Biden to drop out was more telling given that centrist Never Trump pro-democracy journalists seem so attached to Biden.

don't think this was posted yet?

Second House Democrat calls for Biden to withdraw from presidential race

That's a good article with some logical fallacies. Ever since wins asked about the replacement VP I feel like this hasn't been fully addressed:

Although a new vice president would have to be confirmed by the House and Senate, rendering her choice vulnerable to Republican obstruction, the Senate rules can be altered to eliminate the chance to filibuster such a choice. The House is a bigger risk, given the GOP majority’s fealty to Trump.

So if the idea is that Biden doesn't have the energy to campaign, I get it. I am not sure this piece fully addresses the pros and cons of not letting Biden finish his term.

I think there's this effect where we project and assume that what we see in the debate translates into an impression of how he works. But I'm not sure we have a good baseline, other than his record, do we? I think part of his effectiveness in getting legislation passed might have something to do with his long track record and camaraderie with the other senior Congress members who have power. I don't know if you can just plug Harris into that for a few months.

xp was referring to the Serwer piece

He is competent and he will survive and go on to win the nomination and win the election.

whether you end up being proven correct or not, could you concede that this is a baseless, partisan statement that is completely useless from a discursive POV?

as a colleague, I selfishly would like to assume you have your wits about you. but you haven’t done yourself any favors over the past week or so

you’ve repeatedly stated, without any evidence or any attempt at convincing reasoning, that the polls are wrong. that’s essentially the basis of your argument. it’s embarrassing and below the standards of discussion for most people who post here

I think there's this effect where we project and assume that what we see in the debate translates into an impression of how he works. But I'm not sure we have a good baseline, other than his record, do we? I think part of his effectiveness in getting legislation passed might have something to do with his long track record and camaraderie with the other senior Congress members who have power. I don't know if you can just plug Harris into that for a few months.

― felicity, Thursday, July 4, 2024 1:08 AM (thirty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I’m going to ignore the second part of this post, since it is nothing more than a parroting of white house talking points which, again, is beneath the standards of discourse of most of the people who post here. and I say “most” because there is, demonstrably, more than one poster who appears to be on the mailing list…

but regarding the question of whether the debate performance sheds any light on his capacity to run the country — it does. clearly there is a decision-making apparatus in place that to some extent insulates the rest of us from his incapacity. you could I suppose be excused from understanding this until the story I posted today came out because, again, that had been the party line you had so readily internalized. but for anyone with an independent thought in their head, that veil has irrevocably been lifted

does the campaign have the final say on how it's edited?

Friday's interview, that is--was wondering the same thing. I don't know if it has any real importance, but I'm sure a lot of people will be watching. It has to be live and unedited for it to mean anything. Maybe someone at ABC wants to present him in the best possible light, maybe in the worst. Shouldn't be their call either way.

I really don’t mean to be too unkind or whatever but felicity has proven herself to be a moron and genocide apologist on multiple occasions and the fact that she’s not been banned from here at this point is bewildering to me, personally! what kind of board is this these days? I don’t know!

I haven’t been an active participant on the politics threads for about a decade now. maybe times have changed

the debate performance sheds any light on his capacity to run the country — it does. clearly there is a decision-making apparatus in place that to some extent insulates the rest of us from his incapacity. you could I suppose be excused from understanding this

Lol absolutely rent free

can't turn my post into a heart.

Sorry to disappoint your "standards"
thread jobsworth