US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

Just to push back on the felony thing: one of the focus group people was saying they are 100% sure Trump is guilty, but they literally don't care or even think it makes him more relatable. It's a non-violent felony, this is more common than you think. Their husband is a felon who didn't kill anyone and they are struggling financially because it disqualifies him from many jobs. And also Hunter Biden is a felon, son for a son. So she actually thought Trump might do something for felons.

Also grim: the Justices are going along with Trump in the way that so many he appointed did during his Presidential term, only to get thrown under the bus when convenient. I wonder if they see themselves as immune from the same thing happening.

oh boy they are letting him speak live right now...

"when ppl are saying Biden should get out of the way now which of those do they mean?"

someone said that the best thing would be for biden to accept the nomination at the convention and then when the convention is over he can say that he will not be running and then the dnc can pick harris to run in biden's place. but only if biden accepts the nomination.

i think that's what they said...

i can't keep track of these headlines:

RFK Jr. does not deny sexual assault allegation, rejects report he once ate dog meat

they are letting him speak

I'm sure Biden has plenty of advisors, but I don't think he has keepers who decide when to let him out of his pen.

RFK Jr. just denied that he barbecued and ate a dog

RFK Jr. says it was a goat, not a dog in that Vanity Fair photo

RFK Jr. says he'd eat 'virtually anything' — but not a dog or a human

don't even know if MORE craziness is even needed when it comes to this guy...

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/robert-kennedy-jr-shocking-history

Hunter Biden has been sitting in on meetings at the White House this week. Unreal.

Yeah just kind of nothing the Biden camp is doing seems at all responsive to the moment. The Annie Leibovitz shoot, bringing Hunter into the fold like he's Jared Kushner or something, they're operating with a level of arrogance that would only be warranted if they were up 10-15 points in the polls and had a firm sense of widespread popularity.

My siblings were saying there is no way Al Franken would resign the Senate in today's climate, nor would he be hounded to do so.

brief review of bsky indicates there are still a huge number of people on the left who think he was incredibly guilty of everything he was accused of and no Dem should ever utter his name again so I dunno.

Yeah, that can be true too. Just showing you we all have different data.

Can RFK Jr. eat Biden?

I know, fuck Nate Silver and all that, but he makes a point well here that others have made too: This is a winnable election for Democrats. But possibly not for Biden specifically.

There are five presidential swing states that also have highly competitive Senate races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Sorry, Florida and Ohio don’t count as swing states anymore — and Texas isn’t one quite yet.) In those states, there have been 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump emerged as their parties’ clear nominees in March.

In 46 of the 47 polls, the Democratic Senate candidate polled better than Mr. Biden. He and the Senate candidate performed equally well in one poll. Which means that Mr. Biden didn’t outpoll the Senate candidate in any of the surveys. (I’m using the versions of the polls among likely voters, and the version with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included if the pollster made one available.)

None of the 47 polls — not a single one of them — showed the Democratic candidate trailing in the Senate race, though two showed a tie. In contrast, Mr. Biden led in only seven of the surveys, was tied with Mr. Trump in two and trailed in the other 38.

The contrast is remarkably consistent across blue-chip surveys, the dubious ones that voters probably should have some concerns about and everything in between. And the difference isn’t only at the margin. Mr. Biden is underperforming the presumed Democratic Senate nominee by a net of five points in Michigan, seven points in Wisconsin, eight points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Arizona and an unlucky 13 points in Nevada.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/opinion/biden-democrats-senate-polls.html

I wonder if RFK has tried to have any public presence this past week or is just laying low. Seems like his time to shine — an alternative without the necessary party mechanics.

― the possibility of relaxing (Eazy), Monday, July 1, 2024 7:20 PM bookmarkflaglink

Sorry but this aged hilariously.

Damn that monkey's paw.

Maybe Cheryl Hines was saying on Thursday night, "Bob, I know you want to go on CNN, but if you poke your head out now they'll hit you with that dog you ate."

“Stop fucking giving Biden money.”
-Damon Lindelof, creator of LOST

https://deadline.com/2024/07/joe-biden-has-to-go-damon-lindelof-democrat-donor-1236000351/

I did wonder if Vanity Fair is part of a Hollywood machine that was sitting on that story for this kind of situation. It didn't seem particular time-sensitive. I'm not sure how that kind of decision is made.

tradition says that summer is the time to publish news stories about loons bcz that's the type of thing that can grab the attention of the public when nothing important is happening. obv, some important things have been happening, but the decision to got to print will have been made before the debacle debate.

Joe Biden literally JUST emailed me:

Andrew, I know the past few days have been tough. I'm sure you're getting a lot of questions. I'm sure many of you have questions as well.

So, let me say this as clearly and simply as I can: I'm running.

I've been knocked down and counted out my whole life. I'm sure the same is true for many of you. But my father had an expression. He said, “Champ, it’s not how many times you get knocked down. It’s how quickly you get up.”

As a country, when we get knocked down, we get back up. When we get counted out, we just work harder. That is exactly what I am going to do, and it’s what I need you to do as well...

how'd you get knocked down Joe

he's really leaning into the Chumbawamba messaging

look, whatever, Biden knows himself better than anyone, if he really thinks he's up to this now that the entire country thinks he's senile, give him a chance to prove it

if he faceplants like this at another live event though i'm gonna be incredibly upset

If his interview with Stephanopolous is a shitshow, maybe that’ll finally pull the plug

Andy, I got that text about an hour ago!

does the campaign have the final say on how it's edited? have to imagine ABC is going to want to keep it in if he says anything truly bizarre like he did at the debate

I don't really know what's to be gained from this kind of thing. He's not going to look or sound great, he hasn't in years. It just feels sad to me, like it'll produce a range of reactions but not fundamentally change anyone's sense of things and just kind of kick the can down the road unless/until something else bad happens. On the other hand I don't expect him to be terrible, surely with adequate prep and rest you can get through an hour with Stephanopoulos.

i hate to say it but maybe the country just doesn't want someone who always gets knocked down and who is sympathetic and relatable because of tragic loss. maybe this country just wants a sane badass who can speak in public and doesn't kill too many people in countries fill with poverty and hunger and who doesn't give a fuck about no trump. Dems are supposed to be all brainy and shit why can't they ever find someone who can slay at public speaking? And who is funny. is there one funny Democrat? like, funny ha ha on purpose and not because they fall down all the time.

But, guys, Biden has a tragic backstory! Let’s celebrate the underdog!

i wouldn't hire a social media person for kamala. i would hire a team of ace comedy writers who can come up with a dozen good Trump putdowns every day. and i would have her go on Fox News and just unleash comic fury on those idiots. go into the icky lion's den. show them who's boss. it ain't tony danza its kamala!

this will never happen and she will be awkward but whatever. this is a thread for dreaming.

dreaming and dreading, just one letter apart

sad lol

Andy, I got that text about an hour ago!

wait, he's sending them out to just everyone? I thought we had a special donor/donee relationship

Regarding slaying at public speaking: you guys don't like them at all I gather, but Newsom and Buttigieg are both very impressive as debaters and as public speakers.

I still would rather have Biden or Harris, as bumbling or awkward as they might be (Harris has really improved, though). And I don't know among the Republicans anyone who is funny either

Yeah, Newsom is smarm but he's actually a pretty good communicator

lol

Vanity Fair's story goes on to suggest that Kennedy could have contracted the brain worm in 2010 from the 'dog.'

The candidate has said that he believed he contracted the tapeworm from food he ate - though it's unclear where he had that meal.

Reed Hastings wants him out, too. Yikes. Maybe even Katzenberg and Geffen will be next

https://deadline.com/2024/07/biden-reed-hastings-quit-race-1236001194/

I really do think this rush to ditch Biden is misguided and will backfire

Ari Emanuel was ready on Friday morn for him not to run. Here he is at the Aspen Ideas Festival (really interesting interview; the Biden stuff is of course at the beginning):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yx55HtvkPJg

I don't think mega-donors have nearly as much sway over this kind of decision as the long term political insiders Biden trusts most, who understand what it takes to win elections. if the media frenzy and polling numbers take on the aspect of a landslide that will bury Biden, those kind of insiders will start telling him he's toast with near unanimity; he'd listen to their perspective, carefully check it against his own sense of political reality and might actually step aside.

In that Ari Emanuel interview he talks about his own father — we're going to get so many think pieces about this whole thing, because so many people of think-piece-writing age are also dealing with aging family.

i feel bad you man now fucking win

We need that on T-shirts.

I don't think Biden is destined to be a victim of a media frenzy or bad polling numbers, as much as I see you would all seem to relish it for some reason.

He is competent and he will survive and go on to win the nomination and win the election. Replacing him by Harris or whoever else will just result in endless lawsuits brought by the Federalist Society in various states (Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona etc - see the Notus article, which is scary) and will cause chaos. Any replacement candidate would just be starting with nothing, no campaign funds or support 3 months before the election. It's not going to happen

He is competent

citation needed

you would all seem to relish it

no we are seriously fucking concerned that he is obviously not up to the job... did you watch that debate?

3 months before the election

four months

playing by the rules hasn't worked very well so far for the non-fascists, perhaps something new is in order

Ari Emanuel is one of Elon's BFFs

There’s no rule a dog can’t run for president

sleeve, I would just ask what alternative you propose that seriously could work at this late date? All of the "but what about so-and-so" arguments are not going to cut it at this point

it's not ideal