US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

ask people for more money on youtube, that'll save the country

the media will continue trying to will this into happening and dripping bullshit rumors to keep people hanging on, maybe it will work, who knows

I never thought I’d be posting this to one of these threads again, let alone for this reason

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g07Xxr20L9s

Seemed like things might get interesting there for a minute, but alas

Not really.

PREVAGEN ISN'T CHEAP, WE NEED YOU TO PITCH IN $5 RIGHT NOW FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY

kinda funny that lots of the people calling for him to drop out were very 'biden's great and you're a childish crybaby if you disagree' last time around.

having a trump second term is great news for oligarchs, a little more chaos always strengthens their position.

xxxpost idk how much reading the tea leaves in real time is gonna help, two days ago we said it's impossible, yesterday and this morning we move around to 'wow it might be happening', today we're back to 'it's impossible', and in that time, only a handful of things have actually happened.

i'm taking a break from news for the day and will check in tomorrow, clickin refresh all day not good for the brain.

I assume somebody is out there polling likely Democratic voters on whether they think he should drop out. Not that that poll is likely to make any more difference than any other, but I would be curious to see it.

milo's right, Biden can't really say anything but this, if he opens the door even a little it'll be all anyone talks about for weeks

what it's gonna come down to I think is Biden will have to do some town halls and live interviews, if he comes off sharp then maybe he'll be fine, if he's anything like he was during the debate he's gonna have no choice. I mean for God's sake he's 81 does he really want his legacy to be the guy who threw the country into fascist rule because he insisted on running despite nearly three-quarters of the country thinking he's not up for the job

*checks notes*

Yes.

How much of the discourse week is just media commentators(ones we agree with more and the others) having to deal with both how rotting everything is (from both a ruling class administrate skill loss and also institutional self-preservation) but also effectively thrashing about how locked in the rot is because there’s no mechanism to change anything that’s going to happen?

It seems that the party machines and structures that didn’t allow for a substantive primary or prevent a guy who got convicted of a felony with the prospect of even more convictions from being the lead candidate ain’t exactly going to be able to replace them as candidates in any way that has popular legitimacy.

also even if he is really considering stepping down he can't be giving hints, I think this only works if it looks like it was Biden's decision

"We would invite the President to tell us directly"

"If he's awake"

"That's innapropriate" pic.twitter.com/7ik6k18jsu

— Brennan Murphy (@brenonade) July 3, 2024

Sorry if this is a silly question but I saw a thread about Biden stepping down as president as opposed to announcing that he won’t stand as a second term candidate (a distinction I hadn’t even thought about as a UKer) this person was saying that if he steps down and Harris ascends the corrupt SC will block any nomination for her vice president — the thrust of the rest of the thread was that therefore in the absence of a veep Mike Johnson would be next in line for the presidency and thus an assassination attempt on Harris would be guaranteed but leaving that aside — when ppl are saying Biden should get out of the way now which of those do they mean?

If he’s not competent to campaign he’s not competent to be President IMO but I don’t really care if he rides it out until January.

Right it would be a weird sell but surely not that weird, four years is some time

I think most people having this conversation are suggesting that Biden step down as candidate but remain as president, as (for instance) Lyndon Johnson did in 1968 when he declined to run for another term. But I've also seen a few people propose that he resign so that Harris can run as an incumbent.

My understanding is that if Biden resigned and Harris became president, she would nominate a vice president who would then need to be confirmed by Congress (both House and Senate). If Congress confirmed the nominee, the Supreme Court would not need to get involved. The issue here -- which I hadn't thought about until now -- is that the Republicans control the House, and so might want to block whoever she nominated, which could conceivably cause a constitutional crisis that the Supreme Court would need to intervene in.

hate to do more pollchat but, a note on one of the recent polls that was not good for Joe:

1/ In the new NYT/Siena poll Joe Biden & Donald Trump are tied 47-47 in the two-way race among those who voted in 2020.

With all candidates named Biden leads 42-39 among those who voted in 2020.

As w every Siena poll, Trump's margin comes from people who didn't vote in 2020

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 3, 2024

2/2020 was the highest turnout in modern US elections. But according to Siena 19% of the 2024 electorate will be people who didn't vote in 2020, but THIS TIME they'll vote

There will be 2024 voters who didn't vote in 2020. They won't be 19% of the electorate

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 3, 2024

3/Also note that this poll has Trump winning 18-29 by 8 points, losing +65 by 4, and getting 15% w African-Americans vs only 73% for Biden.

Uh huh...

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 3, 2024

I won't pretend to know what's going on and have no clue how this compares vs. prior elections but given how utterly bizarre the political climate is right now it would not surprise me if there was some major shift in response rates based on the fact that one party is now a full blown cult of personality in a way that wasn't true in 2016 and might not have even been true in 2020. Because if it is indeed tied if you only factor in people who voted in 2020 isn't it kind of odd that people who didn't vote in 2020 would be the ones delivering it to Trump? In every election post-Dobbs abortion is the thing that's turning out new voters more than anything, not whatever the fuck Trump is selling. Combine that with the fact that even the pollsters are saying it gets harder and harder to get good data every year, they think they're adjusting correctly but don't really know, idk maybe it's just cope but I suspect the reality is that it's actually still incredibly close

Thanks jaymc, I think I get it now. In the general discourse there seemed to be an equation of joe-drops-out with Joe-dies ito the vp taking over so it’s useful (to me at least) to know that ppl are actually advocating joe-drops-out and not joe-steps-down which is the actual equivalent to joe-dies

That's a good point. I believe the job of VP includes counting the electoral results as certified from the states.

The Twelfth Amendment allows the vice president, as the president of the Senate, receive the Electoral College votes and opens the sealed votes.[7] The votes are counted during a joint session of Congress every four years on January the 6th.

If the House and Senate cannot agree to confirm the President's nomination for a successor VP, then I guess it's Mike Johnson who would be handling the electoral results.

If Biden steps aside now, that is.

I mean people keep saying "it's not that Trump is more popular it's that Dems will sit out" but like, wasn't defeating Trump far and away the main thing driving people out to vote in 2020? wasn't Biden's main appeal that he polled the best vs. Trump? does that really change in 2024 after he incited an insurrection, got charged with 100 felonies, had his handpicked SC declare he's free to commit crime, and is running on an openly fascist platform that now the public can't even see? idk I just want to believe all this matters a little. all these articles say something like "I would vote for a corpse over Donald Trump", maybe we'll find out if that's actually true

A real "well done everyone" momebt

That’s pretty grim, if the same scenario happens if Biden were to pass away before January.

Just to push back on the felony thing: one of the focus group people was saying they are 100% sure Trump is guilty, but they literally don't care or even think it makes him more relatable. It's a non-violent felony, this is more common than you think. Their husband is a felon who didn't kill anyone and they are struggling financially because it disqualifies him from many jobs. And also Hunter Biden is a felon, son for a son. So she actually thought Trump might do something for felons.

Also grim: the Justices are going along with Trump in the way that so many he appointed did during his Presidential term, only to get thrown under the bus when convenient. I wonder if they see themselves as immune from the same thing happening.

oh boy they are letting him speak live right now...

"when ppl are saying Biden should get out of the way now which of those do they mean?"

someone said that the best thing would be for biden to accept the nomination at the convention and then when the convention is over he can say that he will not be running and then the dnc can pick harris to run in biden's place. but only if biden accepts the nomination.

i think that's what they said...

i can't keep track of these headlines:

RFK Jr. does not deny sexual assault allegation, rejects report he once ate dog meat

they are letting him speak

I'm sure Biden has plenty of advisors, but I don't think he has keepers who decide when to let him out of his pen.

RFK Jr. just denied that he barbecued and ate a dog

RFK Jr. says it was a goat, not a dog in that Vanity Fair photo

RFK Jr. says he'd eat 'virtually anything' — but not a dog or a human

don't even know if MORE craziness is even needed when it comes to this guy...

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/robert-kennedy-jr-shocking-history

Hunter Biden has been sitting in on meetings at the White House this week. Unreal.

Yeah just kind of nothing the Biden camp is doing seems at all responsive to the moment. The Annie Leibovitz shoot, bringing Hunter into the fold like he's Jared Kushner or something, they're operating with a level of arrogance that would only be warranted if they were up 10-15 points in the polls and had a firm sense of widespread popularity.

My siblings were saying there is no way Al Franken would resign the Senate in today's climate, nor would he be hounded to do so.

brief review of bsky indicates there are still a huge number of people on the left who think he was incredibly guilty of everything he was accused of and no Dem should ever utter his name again so I dunno.

Yeah, that can be true too. Just showing you we all have different data.

Can RFK Jr. eat Biden?

I know, fuck Nate Silver and all that, but he makes a point well here that others have made too: This is a winnable election for Democrats. But possibly not for Biden specifically.

There are five presidential swing states that also have highly competitive Senate races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (Sorry, Florida and Ohio don’t count as swing states anymore — and Texas isn’t one quite yet.) In those states, there have been 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump emerged as their parties’ clear nominees in March.

In 46 of the 47 polls, the Democratic Senate candidate polled better than Mr. Biden. He and the Senate candidate performed equally well in one poll. Which means that Mr. Biden didn’t outpoll the Senate candidate in any of the surveys. (I’m using the versions of the polls among likely voters, and the version with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included if the pollster made one available.)

None of the 47 polls — not a single one of them — showed the Democratic candidate trailing in the Senate race, though two showed a tie. In contrast, Mr. Biden led in only seven of the surveys, was tied with Mr. Trump in two and trailed in the other 38.

The contrast is remarkably consistent across blue-chip surveys, the dubious ones that voters probably should have some concerns about and everything in between. And the difference isn’t only at the margin. Mr. Biden is underperforming the presumed Democratic Senate nominee by a net of five points in Michigan, seven points in Wisconsin, eight points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Arizona and an unlucky 13 points in Nevada.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/opinion/biden-democrats-senate-polls.html

I wonder if RFK has tried to have any public presence this past week or is just laying low. Seems like his time to shine — an alternative without the necessary party mechanics.

― the possibility of relaxing (Eazy), Monday, July 1, 2024 7:20 PM bookmarkflaglink

Sorry but this aged hilariously.

Damn that monkey's paw.

Maybe Cheryl Hines was saying on Thursday night, "Bob, I know you want to go on CNN, but if you poke your head out now they'll hit you with that dog you ate."

“Stop fucking giving Biden money.”
-Damon Lindelof, creator of LOST

https://deadline.com/2024/07/joe-biden-has-to-go-damon-lindelof-democrat-donor-1236000351/

I did wonder if Vanity Fair is part of a Hollywood machine that was sitting on that story for this kind of situation. It didn't seem particular time-sensitive. I'm not sure how that kind of decision is made.

tradition says that summer is the time to publish news stories about loons bcz that's the type of thing that can grab the attention of the public when nothing important is happening. obv, some important things have been happening, but the decision to got to print will have been made before the debacle debate.

Joe Biden literally JUST emailed me:

Andrew, I know the past few days have been tough. I'm sure you're getting a lot of questions. I'm sure many of you have questions as well.

So, let me say this as clearly and simply as I can: I'm running.

I've been knocked down and counted out my whole life. I'm sure the same is true for many of you. But my father had an expression. He said, “Champ, it’s not how many times you get knocked down. It’s how quickly you get up.”

As a country, when we get knocked down, we get back up. When we get counted out, we just work harder. That is exactly what I am going to do, and it’s what I need you to do as well...

how'd you get knocked down Joe

he's really leaning into the Chumbawamba messaging

look, whatever, Biden knows himself better than anyone, if he really thinks he's up to this now that the entire country thinks he's senile, give him a chance to prove it

if he faceplants like this at another live event though i'm gonna be incredibly upset

If his interview with Stephanopolous is a shitshow, maybe that’ll finally pull the plug

Andy, I got that text about an hour ago!