US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

fweedom’s just another woid for nothin’ weft to wooze

omg its just one question after another. she is spinning so fast! she's gonna get dizzy.

if she says "when you get knocked down you get back up" one more time she's going to fall down and not get back up.

This is all so damn stupid.

Before the debate I was not positive, but fairly confident that Biden would win this. I felt good enough about it that I hadn't been too worried about Trump (while voting in all local elections and doing what I can blah blah blah).

Now it all feels fucked and just so very stupid. Idiocracy, the stupidest timeline, dumpster fire, etc. My brain starts getting up to "What if he wins? What does that really mean?" and I can't deal with it. I guess I need to go visit the Scream Into The Void thread.

Dems could say hey we love Joe but are doing what’s best for the country at this current time unlike republicans that stick by an obviously deranged senile old man. Many of the same republicans that continue to back would even make a better president than Trump. Why are they not doing what’s best for the country?

https://www.notus.org/2024-election/biden-heritage-republicans

Then there's this shit. Fuck you Biden, fuck everybody around him.

Republicans. They can fuck off too. That goes without saying.

that article is, err, quite burying the lede here:

An urgent push to replace Biden could cripple the plan. Biden isn’t on the general election ballot yet because he isn’t officially the Democratic nominee, although the party currently plans to name Biden the nominee in a virtual roll call before the August convention. And the Democratic National Committee has no plans and is not anticipating a move to try to replace Biden.

“Biden has always had our back, and we’re gonna have his,” DNC Chair Jaime Harrison said Saturday on MSNBC.

If he dropped out before then or if the party voted to move forward with a different candidate, the project would be hard-pressed to keep Biden on the ballot, according to state election lawyer John Ciampoli.

“I don’t know how there’s a state law that locks Joe Biden in at this point as the Democratic candidate,” Ciampoli told NOTUS. “How can a state make someone a candidate when the party hasn’t made him their candidate yet?”

like the premise being focused on is if the discussion about replacing him drags on until like after said confirmation/Convention, and tbh...replacing him that late would be a bad idea anyway

A long night to come:

President Biden on call with staff just now:

“Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can, as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running."

"No one is pushing me out.”

"I'm not leaving. I'm in this race to the end and we're going to win."

— Gabe Gutierrez (@gabegutierrez) July 3, 2024

5 minutes later, he'll say it again and not remember he already said it

yeah I agree with that, they should take a week or two to decide but they gotta do it by the convention

Welp so much for that. Seemed like things might get interesting there for a minute, but alas. Whatever else has diminished, it isn't his ego.

I mean, that's what he's saying today. there's about to be a crescendo in the pressure department after that.

We'll see. No indications yet that anyone in his decision-making circle feels like they need to do anything. "Give Kamala more of a presence on the 'gram." That's the response.

upthread there was the parallel of Raskin talking like he had a first round pick QB who threw 45 interceptions - pretty much the same here, I guess, Joe's got to keep saying he's The Man until he finally caves (he's not gonna cave)

lol from who. the dnc, very famous for paying attention to their constituents. xxp

ask people for more money on youtube, that'll save the country

the media will continue trying to will this into happening and dripping bullshit rumors to keep people hanging on, maybe it will work, who knows

I never thought I’d be posting this to one of these threads again, let alone for this reason

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g07Xxr20L9s

Seemed like things might get interesting there for a minute, but alas

Not really.

PREVAGEN ISN'T CHEAP, WE NEED YOU TO PITCH IN $5 RIGHT NOW FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY

kinda funny that lots of the people calling for him to drop out were very 'biden's great and you're a childish crybaby if you disagree' last time around.

having a trump second term is great news for oligarchs, a little more chaos always strengthens their position.

xxxpost idk how much reading the tea leaves in real time is gonna help, two days ago we said it's impossible, yesterday and this morning we move around to 'wow it might be happening', today we're back to 'it's impossible', and in that time, only a handful of things have actually happened.

i'm taking a break from news for the day and will check in tomorrow, clickin refresh all day not good for the brain.

I assume somebody is out there polling likely Democratic voters on whether they think he should drop out. Not that that poll is likely to make any more difference than any other, but I would be curious to see it.

milo's right, Biden can't really say anything but this, if he opens the door even a little it'll be all anyone talks about for weeks

what it's gonna come down to I think is Biden will have to do some town halls and live interviews, if he comes off sharp then maybe he'll be fine, if he's anything like he was during the debate he's gonna have no choice. I mean for God's sake he's 81 does he really want his legacy to be the guy who threw the country into fascist rule because he insisted on running despite nearly three-quarters of the country thinking he's not up for the job

*checks notes*

Yes.

How much of the discourse week is just media commentators(ones we agree with more and the others) having to deal with both how rotting everything is (from both a ruling class administrate skill loss and also institutional self-preservation) but also effectively thrashing about how locked in the rot is because there’s no mechanism to change anything that’s going to happen?

It seems that the party machines and structures that didn’t allow for a substantive primary or prevent a guy who got convicted of a felony with the prospect of even more convictions from being the lead candidate ain’t exactly going to be able to replace them as candidates in any way that has popular legitimacy.

also even if he is really considering stepping down he can't be giving hints, I think this only works if it looks like it was Biden's decision

"We would invite the President to tell us directly"

"If he's awake"

"That's innapropriate" pic.twitter.com/7ik6k18jsu

— Brennan Murphy (@brenonade) July 3, 2024

Sorry if this is a silly question but I saw a thread about Biden stepping down as president as opposed to announcing that he won’t stand as a second term candidate (a distinction I hadn’t even thought about as a UKer) this person was saying that if he steps down and Harris ascends the corrupt SC will block any nomination for her vice president — the thrust of the rest of the thread was that therefore in the absence of a veep Mike Johnson would be next in line for the presidency and thus an assassination attempt on Harris would be guaranteed but leaving that aside — when ppl are saying Biden should get out of the way now which of those do they mean?

If he’s not competent to campaign he’s not competent to be President IMO but I don’t really care if he rides it out until January.

Right it would be a weird sell but surely not that weird, four years is some time

I think most people having this conversation are suggesting that Biden step down as candidate but remain as president, as (for instance) Lyndon Johnson did in 1968 when he declined to run for another term. But I've also seen a few people propose that he resign so that Harris can run as an incumbent.

My understanding is that if Biden resigned and Harris became president, she would nominate a vice president who would then need to be confirmed by Congress (both House and Senate). If Congress confirmed the nominee, the Supreme Court would not need to get involved. The issue here -- which I hadn't thought about until now -- is that the Republicans control the House, and so might want to block whoever she nominated, which could conceivably cause a constitutional crisis that the Supreme Court would need to intervene in.

hate to do more pollchat but, a note on one of the recent polls that was not good for Joe:

1/ In the new NYT/Siena poll Joe Biden & Donald Trump are tied 47-47 in the two-way race among those who voted in 2020.

With all candidates named Biden leads 42-39 among those who voted in 2020.

As w every Siena poll, Trump's margin comes from people who didn't vote in 2020

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 3, 2024

2/2020 was the highest turnout in modern US elections. But according to Siena 19% of the 2024 electorate will be people who didn't vote in 2020, but THIS TIME they'll vote

There will be 2024 voters who didn't vote in 2020. They won't be 19% of the electorate

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 3, 2024

3/Also note that this poll has Trump winning 18-29 by 8 points, losing +65 by 4, and getting 15% w African-Americans vs only 73% for Biden.

Uh huh...

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) July 3, 2024

I won't pretend to know what's going on and have no clue how this compares vs. prior elections but given how utterly bizarre the political climate is right now it would not surprise me if there was some major shift in response rates based on the fact that one party is now a full blown cult of personality in a way that wasn't true in 2016 and might not have even been true in 2020. Because if it is indeed tied if you only factor in people who voted in 2020 isn't it kind of odd that people who didn't vote in 2020 would be the ones delivering it to Trump? In every election post-Dobbs abortion is the thing that's turning out new voters more than anything, not whatever the fuck Trump is selling. Combine that with the fact that even the pollsters are saying it gets harder and harder to get good data every year, they think they're adjusting correctly but don't really know, idk maybe it's just cope but I suspect the reality is that it's actually still incredibly close

Thanks jaymc, I think I get it now. In the general discourse there seemed to be an equation of joe-drops-out with Joe-dies ito the vp taking over so it’s useful (to me at least) to know that ppl are actually advocating joe-drops-out and not joe-steps-down which is the actual equivalent to joe-dies

That's a good point. I believe the job of VP includes counting the electoral results as certified from the states.

The Twelfth Amendment allows the vice president, as the president of the Senate, receive the Electoral College votes and opens the sealed votes.[7] The votes are counted during a joint session of Congress every four years on January the 6th.

If the House and Senate cannot agree to confirm the President's nomination for a successor VP, then I guess it's Mike Johnson who would be handling the electoral results.

If Biden steps aside now, that is.

I mean people keep saying "it's not that Trump is more popular it's that Dems will sit out" but like, wasn't defeating Trump far and away the main thing driving people out to vote in 2020? wasn't Biden's main appeal that he polled the best vs. Trump? does that really change in 2024 after he incited an insurrection, got charged with 100 felonies, had his handpicked SC declare he's free to commit crime, and is running on an openly fascist platform that now the public can't even see? idk I just want to believe all this matters a little. all these articles say something like "I would vote for a corpse over Donald Trump", maybe we'll find out if that's actually true

A real "well done everyone" momebt

That’s pretty grim, if the same scenario happens if Biden were to pass away before January.

Just to push back on the felony thing: one of the focus group people was saying they are 100% sure Trump is guilty, but they literally don't care or even think it makes him more relatable. It's a non-violent felony, this is more common than you think. Their husband is a felon who didn't kill anyone and they are struggling financially because it disqualifies him from many jobs. And also Hunter Biden is a felon, son for a son. So she actually thought Trump might do something for felons.

Also grim: the Justices are going along with Trump in the way that so many he appointed did during his Presidential term, only to get thrown under the bus when convenient. I wonder if they see themselves as immune from the same thing happening.

oh boy they are letting him speak live right now...

"when ppl are saying Biden should get out of the way now which of those do they mean?"

someone said that the best thing would be for biden to accept the nomination at the convention and then when the convention is over he can say that he will not be running and then the dnc can pick harris to run in biden's place. but only if biden accepts the nomination.

i think that's what they said...

i can't keep track of these headlines:

RFK Jr. does not deny sexual assault allegation, rejects report he once ate dog meat

they are letting him speak

I'm sure Biden has plenty of advisors, but I don't think he has keepers who decide when to let him out of his pen.

RFK Jr. just denied that he barbecued and ate a dog

RFK Jr. says it was a goat, not a dog in that Vanity Fair photo

RFK Jr. says he'd eat 'virtually anything' — but not a dog or a human

don't even know if MORE craziness is even needed when it comes to this guy...

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/robert-kennedy-jr-shocking-history

Hunter Biden has been sitting in on meetings at the White House this week. Unreal.