US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

lol "if he has two more events like that"

“Two more strikes, and I’m out!”

Sorry

That's gotta be it. Whatever gets said publically, I'm sure the story is three steps ahead of that behind the scenes.

The campaign is hiring a social media person "to write daily content for VP Kamala Harris and expand the Vice President’s voice online."

Couple of things:

1. Part of the reason this is not going away is that trump is staying out of the news. It’s also the reason the debate was such a disaster: trump let Biden speak (or was muted).

2. If it goes to Harris then the funniest vp suggestion I’ve heard is manchin.

Josh Marshall:

Two thoughts on our current predicament. The first is that while people are seizing on this or that bad poll – and there are some – we now have seven polls in which we have before and after data from individual pollsters, before the debate and after. This is the only real way to judge the public opinion of last week’s debate. Putting all those together you have Biden going down one point and Trump remaining unchanged. This data point is certainly not determinative in itself about what should happen next or anything about the campaign. But from what I can tell it is the best systematic and data-driven look at the impact of this event which has consumed the political world and especially the Democratic party for a week. The slight shift could in fact quite easily be explained simply by non-response bias. By any measure it is very limited.

At a minimum we need to look clearly at those numbers as a counter to what from the world of commentary and chatter has the look of a collapse of support for Biden and even Democrats generally. Vibes, the overlapping cacophony of voices on cable news and on editorial pages are all together like being in a room of screaming, shouting people, leaving one disoriented and overwhelmed. Packs of reporters at several critical publications – most notably The New York Times – are deeply invested in what they clearly see as vindication. This is jackals and hyenas type stuff. These numbers, while not gospel and also a moving target, are at least the result of some systematic analysis, like instruments signals flying in a storm.

The problem is not a collapse in support as measured by polls.

It’s that Biden is behind and the debate didn’t change that, and also there are 3.5 months to go and the clear evidence of the debate is that Biden is not going to make it through that without similar incidents.

The campaign is hiring a social media person "to write daily content for VP Kamala Harris and expand the Vice President’s voice online."

― Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Wednesday, July 3, 2024 9:57 AM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

the only person I can think of who would be qualified for this is Neil Breen

basing strategy purely on polls conducted in the immediate wake of a debate is dumb. especially since it takes a while for the true effects to show up in polls. if you wait for that, you're already behind the eight-ball.

frankly, Trump and his voters created a narrative about Biden and his senility, even as Trump himself was losing his marbles. now, Biden has completely played into that narrative on camera, and there's no way to wash that stink away from the public eye. even if you shot him full of crazy experimental drugs and it didn't happen again.

iow caek otm

Biden has a meeting scheduled with Kamala at 12:15, and there's an all-staff call set for 12:30.

The problem with Marshall's take is he's only looking at presidential race polling and not at things like the CBS poll that showed 72 percent of everybody thinks he's not up to the job. So, yeah, most of the partisan support in this race is baked in and there are a whole lot of people who are going to vote for whichever D is on the ticket. But those aren't enough people to actually win the election, and a lot of those people are at a minimum not enthusiastic about Biden. Other polls show Harris running as well or better than Biden vs. Trump, so Biden's persistent 43-44 percent is not some reason to say it's gotta be him.

Harris doesn't play golf, does she? Want to keep that from happening ever again

I mean, even if you took away all the concerns about his age, Biden's poll position and favorability ratings would by themselves be the signs of a candidacy in serious trouble. So saying "Our extremely perilous polling hasn't gotten worse since our disastrous debate" is hardly reassuring.

she has like this Tim and Eric sense of accidental comedic timing.

lol this is very true

I think the only possible argument to keep Biden on the ticket is the inevitability of litigation to prevent Harris being the candidate in half a dozen swing states. That’s a real problem given the composition of state and federal courts. It’s a good argument to keep Biden. But I lean toward dumping him for Harris.

"The campaign is hiring a social media person"

does this mean that the VP of the US hasn't had a social media person for 4 years?

You have a person. I have a hive.

Xp Certainly seemed like she was writing her own incomprehensible and boring tweets for the nomination last time.

I think she should do impressions of trump

While we were all busy watching Kevin McCarthy fall apart, we missed VP Kamala Harris doing an impression of Sen. Bennet’s deep voice during his swearing in and it’s hilarious. pic.twitter.com/3Lug1fUAvM

— Nate Morris (@_natemorris) January 4, 2023

This is an extremely good idea

Also I cannot stress enough that she should do Hot Ones. She would destroy Hot Ones.

— kleinman.bsky.social (@BobbyBigWheel) July 3, 2024

she should go atomic on trump every day of the week. piss him off. go on television every chance she gets and litigate his tired ass. and just call him a loser. over and over.

also, I gotta bring this up - Kamala Harris looks good. she's attractive and presentable whereas both current Presidential candidates look like shit. obviously this shouldn't matter but I can't help but think it does. good looking candidates tend to win. JFK, Reagan, Clinton, Obama, they all looked like actors and did very well vs. candidates who were just old white guys. just from a monkeybrain perspective the visual of Trump vs. Biden is a different thing than Trump vs. Harris.

One of the reasons I think she'd be so good is that (I think, anyway) she'd push every one of Trump's buttons and get under his skin like no one else. Anyone who hates Trump probably assumes at this point that Trump couldn't do or say anything that would make you think less of him; Harris might be able to pull that off.

also, I gotta bring this up - Kamala Harris looks good. she's attractive and presentable whereas both current Presidential candidates look like shit. obviously this shouldn't matter but I can't help but think it does. good looking candidates tend to win. JFK, Reagan, Clinton, Obama, they all looked like actors and did very well vs. candidates who were just old white guys. just from a monkeybrain perspective the visual of Trump vs. Biden is a different thing than Trump vs. Harris.

― frogbs,

https://i.imgur.com/V1qvFZL.jpg

And even though there's no guarantee she'd win, if she did, Trump losing to a Black woman would just be the greatest send-off imaginable.

otm

also you know a lot of rightwing voices (though maybe not Trump himself) would go all in on this "DEI President" idea which you know would play extremely poorly

Idle speculation, but if Harris were the candidate I wonder if Trump would consent to another debate or if his people would think the contrast wouldn't favor him. They could always refuse on the grounds that she's not a legitimate candidate or something.

She looks like a president from central casting, as trump would say, unlike trump.

She'd make the entire party go nuts. I was just going to post that the downside, maybe, is that I don't think they'd ever let him get on a debate stage with her.

Please give me DEI president
I’m dying for Kamala to be front and center — she’s not perfect but goddamn looking at/thinking about her doesn’t make me grimace in disgust bc she’s an appropriately aged and skilled/qualified candidate.

Also she is a woman!!! Please lord bring it on

“Anyone who hates Trump probably assumes at this point that Trump couldn't do or say anything that would make you think less of him; Harris might be able to pull that off.”

This!

Trump doesn’t have much of a mask left, this would explode it, and the world could see him fully for who he is - in terms of what he’d say.

LL otm, Raymond otm

Alright, you’ve talked me into it.

Trump would so call her a N-Word at a debate or a rally in like Oklahoma or Nebraska.

It is time for us to do what we have been doing and that time is every day NOW!.

Just your dauly reminder that Kamala is Asian-American too,

I think every Asian-American immigrant parent is going to do a fist bump if she gets the nomination.

C., doesn't he already do the thing where he pretends to have trouble pronouncing her first name? Hyuk hyuk, o my sides, weird name = ethnic other, dogwhistle dogwhistle, guffaw guffaw.

Barak HUSSEIN Obama, etc.

I can already imagine a Trump rally line about how he’s now up against Obama for the White House

All this shit is what could energize lethargic voters to be like hell no fuck this guy I’m voting for her and poof she wins and we have a woman president!!!!!! Felicity otm as well.

Obviously it's all murky right now, I'm afraid that the signals we're getting so far sound kind of like "Let's see how things go but also let's bump up Harris a little bit just in case she needs to step in," which feels like ... the closest thing to denialism they can muster. The bad thing about that approach is it becomes kinda, what signal are you waiting for?

I don't know, I don't think this has to happen TODAY — although I wouldn't be opposed to it if it did — but I think the damage is done. This is going be a dominant part of the conversation from now until November if he's in the race, people will be scrutinizing every single little thing and debating it and comparing it to older clips of him and on and on, I just don't see a good way for him to stay in at this point.

I’m taking a moment to dream, please excuse me.

Personally, I'm ready for what can be, unburdened by what has been.

I like your dream LL and I think it's more realistic than any scenario involving a Biden November triumph. (A low bar perhaps, but it seems possible to me.)

yeah biden leaving would totally be a relief.

that WH press release later today saying the entire democratic establishment backs biden to the hilt is gonna hit different. a sizzling anvil of dread slamming down like mountain

if she wins trump can spend the rest of his life ranting about the fake deep state president who was illegally installed by george soros at the last minute.