US Politics, July 2024 - "Will you just drop out, man?"

“Uncertainty and anxiety translates into viewership” -Matthew Belloni on his podcast, The Town, a few days ago

The below is a long but interesting Bluesky thread that I'm just gonna reproduce in its (more-or-less, omitting some unimportant links) entirety.

*****

i'm getting so, so tired of the doomerism on here, and the press loves covering shit like a horse race instead of explaining fundamentals and what's at play, a job that seems to fall to

so here's a thread about why i'd rather be biden — yes, biden — right now

the baseline for this election is 2020. normally "the last election" might not be a perfect baseline, but it's the same guys with the roles reversed. both are quasi-incumbents, and we have a four year record for the both of them, with some recency bias for biden.

here's that map

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lui5epjfu4cdbyg6ujyn27tl/bafkreief6uqazuaak52yuq2yikh3twcnkm2ynwbv6zyem324lfyowfesza@jpeg

now, for trump to win, he has to do three things:

1) hold nc
2) flip georgia and arizona
3) make headway in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania

for biden to win, he has to hold wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania.

holding nc:

trump won nc in 2020 by 1.5 points, the closest red state of 2020. in 2020 dem roy cooper won the governor's race by 4.5 pts, meaning a lot of trump/cooper split tickets.

for this round, the nc gop nominated a literal nazi as their gubernatorial candidate. not ideal!

next order of business is flipping arizona and georgia. i think both of these states were at least modest surprises to everyone in 2020, and on paper should be the most tenuous biden holds. trump should be able to flip them back, right?

well, it's still an uphill battle.

for arizona, we have multiple state-wide races to look at from 2022 to establish a baseline. katie hobbs beat kari lake by about 10k votes for the governorship. adrian fontes beat the far-more-trumpy mark finchem in sos by ~5 pts. trumpy blake masters lost by same margin to incumbent kelly.

so arizona, in 2022, given a slate of very trumpy candidates, rejected all of them. the most likeable (least serial killer like), kari lake, is running for senate again.

the az gop is bankrupt, and fake elector trials will start some time before the election, and will be big local news.

so trump has to overcome all that, which he may, it was extremely close in 2020 in arizona.

which brings us to the other surprise swing, georgia

georgia's gov kemp is not a fan of trump. there's been a lot of effort to pull electoral shenanigans there, but kemp isn't going to put his fist on the scales for trump if he comes up short, so on paper at least a decent dem margin in ga will hold.

like az, ga has had a few state level trumper candidates. in 2020 warnock beat loeffler by 2 pts, and ossoff beat perdue by ~1 pt. that's really close, but it's a margin that's pretty shenanigans-proof.

then in 22 ga gop nominated herschel for senate. warnock won by 1 pt in a "red wave" year.

so, like az, ga has rejected trumpist candidates at the state level multiple times in favor of dems, even facing national headwinds for the dem party like the summer 2022 inflation.

i'm not saying trump won't flip one or both of az or ga, but it's not a slam dunk, work must be done.

which brings us to the blue wall. if trump accomplishes the previous two things, he has to flip one of wisconsin, michigan, or pennsylvania.

wi is probably the most vulnerable, followed by mi, then pa.

wi re-elected ron johnson in 2022. god damn it, but by about 20k votes. in the same election, tony evers won the gubernatorial election by a 3 pt margin, so it's hard to draw a conclusion there.

since then, wi had a high-profile supreme court election, which flipped the court's make-up.

so this year wi is having its state leg elections under maps drawn up by evers after the sc ordered them to get their shit together, meaning this'll be the first competitive state leg elections in wi in 15 yrs.

elections have consequences.

meanwhile, the wi gop was doing this. (14-week abortion ban that the governor will veto)

abortion is very much on the ballot in wisconsin this year.

michigan just re-elected big gretch by ten points, the michigan gop is somehow worse off than the az gop (which has been taken over by complete psychopaths) by having a schismatic civil war, and is also broke.

biden was very public in supporting the uaw strike, among other union supports.

the big concern in michigan is the large muslim-american population who are, justifiably and understandably, pissed off at biden for not doing more to restrain israel in gaza.

i have no idea how important this will be, but if israel and hamas agree a biden-backed ceasefire it probably helps.

and this is why it's deeply unlikely a netanyahu-led gov't is going to agree to a ceasefire before the election.

of course, trump is doing everything he can to ruin his chances by using "palestinian" as a slur for biden and schumer; holding rallies at non-union factories; "black jobs"; things of that nature.

i think mi is the biggest wild card, but trump has to make inroads with people of color to win.

if pennsylvania falls, i think we're in full democratic collapse mode, and ironically the fall of the keystone state would herald the end to constitutional governance in this country.

we all watched dr oz lose, hilariously, to fetterman. the leg is split, and the gov is blue.

so trump's path to winning is:

1) hold nc
2) flip az and ga
3) flip wi

i've covered why nc is touchy, az and ga are uphill battles, and wi dems have shown the payoff of working with stacey abrams to get it together and start winning elections.

each of these things would be hard, but...

dobbs.

i haven't mentioned dobbs. which is funny, because it's the giant fucking blue whale in the room.

fielding weirdos and people who genuinely need help as senate candidates is enough of a handicap.

but now we're seeing the full influence of dobbs, and it's not pretty if you're a trumper

2022 midterm should have been a red wave based on fundamentals.

incumbent party, inflation not doing great, weird economy coming out of covid. 538's most likely house split was ~228-207 based on polls.

lol, nope.

and that was before the abortion bans really started to hit.

*since dobbs*, and the news that abortion bans are indeed as psychotic as people feared, you've had elections like this, a d+25 swing over a year earlier (Oklahoma state legislature)

in alabama, a d+30 swing (State House of Representatives)

things of that nature. you've also seen multiple amendments protecting abortion passing in places like 2020 r+8 ohio by 14 points, even after ratfucking shenanigans by the ohio sos.

there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that dobbs is a near-national d+20 swing in all but the safest seats.

a d+5 swing flips nc and florida, and puts texas in play.

fucking texas.

where ted cruz's internal polling numbers had him creating shit like this and trying to make himself out as a bipartisan dealmaker.

btw that cruz rebranding effort is going about as well as you'd expect.

dobbs is a god damned nuclear bomb on the political landscape. likely voter models have no idea how to deal with it. with polling response rates in the gutter, but the vibe from every actual election is this:

women. are. pissed.

it is sad that dobbs could end up saving the republic

so maybe it was a really bad idea for trump to say this during the debate:

“It’s bringing it back to the vote of the people, which is what everybody wanted, including the founders. Everybody wanted it brought back. And many Presidents had tried to get it back. I was the one to do it.”

which was doubling down on these comments a year earlier

“After 50 years of failure, with nobody coming even close, I was able to kill Roe v. Wade, much to the ‘shock’ of everyone.”

maybe trump could overcome this if he could flood the zone with bullshit, or could capitalize on disillusioned dems with aggressive gotv, or create legal chaos with voting outcomes.

but the rnc is broke, its infrastructure dismantled. their gotv effort is being contracted to charlie kirk.

so, in conclusion, biden could lose and i could be wrong and in that case having a bunch of people on bluesky tell me "i told you so" is the least of my concerns. but the trump team has a lot of ground to make up to improve on 2020, and a lot of headwinds of their own making.

That's a not-bad political landscape for a well-liked and energetic Democratic candidate with a strong and coherent message.

Who wrote that?

People who can't find the effort to use capital letters drive me fucking crazy.

Trump’s ahead in NH post debate. This scenario is a bit rosy.

And this all assumes the election even matters, since Trump's already got a corrupt Supreme Court ready to install him no matter the outcome of the election. All this speculation as if this is a normal election feels pretty stupid and pointless to me.

Well, to quote the title of a 20-year-old book by noted Republican hack Hugh Hewitt, If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat. So we'll see.

one other factor is the Dems have a ton of money to spend and the GOP is funneling a lot of their cash towards Trump's legal bills, the whole GOTV operation could make a huge difference

There are some good, hopeful points in that Bluesky piece, but characterizing Kari Lake as in any way likeable makes me question the rest of it.

but yeah the problem with that thread is it ignores where the polls are *now*, which is about an 8 point swing from where they were in July 2020. so sure "he has to do all these things" but the polling is showing that he's likely to do just that.

that said I do still believe the polling is kind of fucked, I mean you have two big ones showing Trump's approval rating at 46%, despite the fact that he barely ever cracked 40% in office. these polls were taken right after he ate 34 felony convictions too. call me naive but I straight up do not believe that Trump is actually *more* popular now, I mean that just does not reflect what I'm seeing in the real world at all

The Biden campaign needs to hammer all the recent SCOTUS decisions: you vote Trump, here’s what you get. You vote third party, or stay home, here’s what you get. I’m so fucking angry lately, as are many. Channel that anger.

maybe they can find some time when their photoshoot is over

sadlol

And this all assumes the election even matters, since Trump's already got a corrupt Supreme Court ready to install him no matter the outcome of the election. All this speculation as if this is a normal election feels pretty stupid and pointless to me.

― Maxmillion D. Boosted (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, July 1, 2024 2:24 PM bookmarkflaglink

As opposed to Trump gets elected, Thomas and Alito retire, the Republicans take the Senate, Trump appoints 2+ even worse Supreme Court judges, and many, many more Court of Appeals and district court judges to lifetime terms?

This is far more likely and predictable than the 3 a.m. escape-room-style emergency red phone call situation the my doctor brother is freaking out about.

"People who can't find the effort to use capital letters drive me fucking crazy."

uh oh i'm in trouble...

Thinking about a Trump presidency and who would be the leader of the Democratic opposition at that point. If they take/keep at least one house of Congress, then I guess it would be the speaker or majority leader. Because there will need to some pretty good rapid response organization pretty quick. Not counting on it, but I hope someone's thinking about it.

the dems need fighters. tough people. they don't have any. younger people too. people who can figure out ways to maneuver in this insane world. people who know how to use a computer. i can't even think of a politician that i respect or admire other than my beloved lesbian governor. i kinda like adam kinzinger! haha! he seems to take death threats in stride. i admire that. he's pro-life though. i don't actually know much about him.

He endorsed Biden before the debate lol

It would be bonkers if Biden won in Georgia again. I am very skeptical of that happening.

He endorsed Biden before the debate lol

yup, I got that email: "I'm a proud conservative, BUT..."

Speaking of Georgia, where is the outrage from Democratic leaders over goddamn Cop City? Oh, right, they gave them MORE money after 2020

Was that a federal issue?

where is the outrage from Democratic leaders and advocacy/legal groups about the successful Republican efforts at purging voter rolls by the 10s of 1000s in Georgia, especially in Fulton county?

It is one of the reasons I think that of all of the 2020 blue states, Georgia is the least likely to repeat

I know this is an obvious point, and I also recognize that comparing polls across decades needs a lot of caveats, but still it's worth looking at the approval ratings: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

At this point in his term, Biden is polling behind every incumbent president of the past 80 years except for Carter. Including GHW Bush and Trump, who of course both lost. There is no historical precedent for an incumbent in that position winning a second term. So to think he has a decent chance, you have to believe the guy we saw on Thursday — and the campaign team that put him there — is capable of a historical electoral surge.

so you really do hate him

???

Literally just posting facts dude. If he was polling at even 46 percent I'd have a lot less of a sinking feeling. But he's not. Are you saying you think this is the guy to pull off a history-defying upset?

As my son said today, "I don't hate Biden. I wish he was on a beach somewhere having a nice chocoloate-chocolate chip ice cream cone and enjoying his retirement." Which is most likely where he'll be a year from now.

Well at least we know he won’t be in prison

biden isn't going to step down, he's going to lose, dnc will do their usual thing and milk outrage for donations along the way - this is who they are. turns out you can't win with one hand pointing at outrage and the other crumpling under any pressure and just fucking everyone over who isn't dead-ass rich.

“The Biden campaign needs to hammer all the recent SCOTUS decisions: you vote Trump, here’s what you get. You vote third party, or stay home, here’s what you get. “ the problem is people will say they booted for Biden and that’s what they got anyway. I’m not agreeing with them per se, but there’s no reason to think any of those justices are going to die in the next four years and give a dem pres a chance to even things out.

Haha “booted”. Voted.

massachusetts really likes republican governors. though now we have our beloved dem lesbian to lead us into victory. wait can she be president? she's cool.

― scott seward, Monday, July 1, 2024 4:21 PM (fifty-nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

hold on now — you like healy?

but there’s no reason to think any of those justices are going to die in the next four years and give a dem pres a chance to even things out

Biden has the greenlight to order drone strikes on their homes now, though.

Need some propaganda of the deed liberalism.

biden isn't going to step down, he's going to lose, dnc will do their usual thing and milk outrage for donations along the way - this is who they are. turns out you can't win with one hand pointing at outrage and the other crumpling under any pressure and just fucking everyone over who isn't dead-ass rich.

Boot now or die

that post is completely incoherent and you guys are sad

xp to tipsy: I don't think Biden will have to have an upset or a history-defying win, I don't think he will lose. The polls are bullshit and the poll predictions aren't "facts". I think you and your son are wrong.

I just don't believe there is any way - with Roe v Wade especially, but also 34 felony convictions and now the insane Supreme Court decision - that Trump will win this election

xp to table

you are literally making posts about how your feelings about things count more than verifiable facts and map and i are the ones being incoherent? please

FAKE NEWS

akm, I hear you and I agree. I just feel like current anger at a completely rogue Supreme Court (and I feel like what we’ve seen is just the tip of the iceberg) is a vote-motivating factor. Since Trump now apparently can’t be prosecuted for anything. Is that what “undecided” or unmotivated voters really want?

I just don't believe there is any way - with Roe v Wade especially, but also 34 felony convictions and now the insane Supreme Court decision - that Trump will win this election

This is where I am, and where I've always been. I like Biden more than most people here, or more than the loudest people here, anyway, but more than that I simply don't believe that people are going to vote for Donald Trump.

Apparently Biden just addressed the SCOTUS decision.

I appreciate the facts and analysis.

I didn't think "least serial killer like" was at all an implication that any of the candidates in Arizona is likeable. As a woman I was and remain livid about Dobbs, and these kind of articles (though frustratingly formatted) do reinforce my motivation to keep talking about it and to spend some time in Maricopa County this fall.

Re: Biden addressing SCOTUS

It was another stern “tsk tsk” bullshit talk with a Teleprompter and no questions from the press. This is a fucking joke

okay, I'm not watching

I simply don't believe that people are going to vote for Donald Trump.

What makes you think people won't vote for Trump? I think tens of millions are going to do just this. This doesn't feel like something you can rely on

It really is. They’re gonna panic and send thousands of fundraising emails but won’t actually outline a plan to combat this, even as Trump swears on retribution. Maybe people would talk about your age a little less if you could show you’re possible of rising to the occasion. It’s so fucking pathetic.

It really is. They’re gonna panic and send thousands of fundraising emails but won’t actually outline a plan to combat this, even as Trump swears on retribution. Maybe people would talk about your age a little less if you could show you’re possible of rising to the occasion. It’s so fucking pathetic.

Oh, I know people will vote for Trump. They drive scary vroom vroom trucks they can’t afford in order to intimidate us and ward off potential mates