rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

personally I am feeling a bit more optimistic, another HCR C&P here:

Yesterday, FreedomWorks, the right-wing organization that was backed by the Koch family at its start in 2004 and that was behind the Tea Party movement, abruptly shut down. FreedomWorks attacked Democratic measures for business regulation and social welfare because it embraced libertarian principles. Its revenue had dropped by half since 2022, its president, Adam Brandon, told Luke Mullins of Politico. But in the end, what did the organization in was the party’s split over Trump.

That split was crystal clear in Tuesday’s Republican primary election in Indiana. Trump won that election, but with only 78.3% of the vote. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who suspended her campaign in early March and has not campaigned since, won 21.7%.

Before the Indiana primary, on May 2 political statistician Tom Bonier debunked the idea that Haley’s support came from Democratic-leaning voters flooding the primary vote to hurt Trump. Crunching the numbers in North Carolina showed that Haley voters there “were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg[istered Republicans]). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Ind[ependent]s vs 97% of [Republicans]), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind[ependent Republican] primary voters vs 50% of [Republicans]).” In short, he wrote, “[e]very indicator suggests these Independents voting in [Republican] primaries are more likely [Republican] voters. They just don't like Trump.”

Political commentator Chris Cillizza today called attention to the numbers that landed before Tuesday. On March 12, Haley won 13.2% of the vote in Georgia (or 78,000 votes). On March 19 she won 17.8% of the vote in Arizona (111,000 votes), 13.9%* of the vote in Florida (155,000 votes), and 14.4% of the vote in Ohio (161,000 votes). On April 2 she won 12.8% of the votes in Wisconsin (77,000 votes). And on April 23, Haley won 16.6% of the votes in Pennsylvania (158,000 votes).

If Biden picks up even one in five of these votes, Cillizza noted, “it matters bigly.”

Happy for some optimism! But boy I've really given up on hoping for any relief from Republicans of any stripe.

Three high-level Republicans this week told media they would not vote for Trump, helping to pave an off-ramp for other Republicans. Former House speaker Paul Ryan told Yahoo Finance that he would write in another Republican rather than vote for Trump. “Character is too important to me,” he said.

Cassidy Hutchinson, former aide to Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, also cited character when she said she would not vote for Trump. “I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my life, but I would absolutely consider voting for Joe Biden this upcoming November because he will not seek to destroy our nation [or] our Constitution, and he has the statesman character that we need in an elected official.”

Georgia’s former lieutenant governor Geoff Duncan went further on Monday night, endorsing Biden, whom he had called in an op-ed a “decent person I disagree with on policy,” over Trump, whom he described as “a criminal defendant without a moral compass.” “Sometimes the best way to learn your lesson is to get beat, and Donald Trump needs to get beat. We need to move on as a party. We need to move on as a country,” he said."

the fact that that tea party group is shutting down is evidence that there is no market for what they are selling, and the number of voters rendered politically homeless by the GOP move from small government to racism/populism is too small for anyone to care about, except the likes of chris cillizza (who is now a management consultant btw).

the rejection of trump personally by a small but significant number of voters who are otherwise reliable republicans is a different thing, and has the potential to matter a lot, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that it's a policy disagreement or a durable "split" that will continue after he drops dead.

the number of gopers for whom "this time it's finally personal" is like 5 and they all on tv.

a miraculous conviction might swing that to double digits tho

Worth remembering though that Dems have consistently over performed their polls since 2018. I don’t see why this would be any different.

kind of depends on how much pollsters have adjusted based on that

I think Biden could withstand any one of the following conditions, but the combination of all of them is a heavy lift: his age/general sense that he's not very strong or present; ongoing economic unease regardless of what the metrics say; Trump's unshakeable base; left-wing fury over Gaza; the complete derangement of the Republican party and right-wing media; the lack of a compelling vision or message beyond "things aren't really that bad, and that guy's a jackass."

On the other hand, sure, there's all of Trump's negatives, there's abortion, there's the overall clownishness of the GOP (see also "complete derangement"), so, sure, there's a fighting chance. But ugh, feeling dour about it all.

Even if Trump somehow wins, Dobbs pretty much will keep Dems controlling likely both the House and Senate I feel9+. Going to be a lame duck single term where he'll attempt to flex some Executive branch muscle (likely incompetently), dismiss his criminal cases, and pardon people left and right. He'll need full control of all three branches to undo democracy. RIP the Supreme Court, Palestine, and protest freedoms though. Anyone thinking voting out Biden is going to make things better in Israel or "send a message", the leopards are waiting to eat your face.

feel9+

Times are strange, even my typos are getting weirder...

just wanna remind everyone that two non-consecutive terms is exceedingly rare

Geoff Duncan OTM

I don't think Trump'll win but I can't see the Democrats taking the Senate even if there's a Dobbs blue wave... at the very best the Dems will win Arizona and Montana, but they just have no chance at all in Ohio or West Virginia (or Texas, which I've seen some delusional people claiming is up for grabs). Senate is gonna be GOP controlled with at best a 51-49 split.

(someone from Ohio please give me hope)

The reasonable scenario: Biden wins, House goes comfortably Dem, Senate goes tightly GOP.

...which would be unusual in modern times

So no judges are getting confirmed

or Texas, which I've seen some delusional people claiming is up for grabs

Death, taxes and people convincing themselves that this election is the one where Democrats can win a statewide race in Texas

I've started seeing an attack ad on Colin Allred that just talks about Beto, it's hard to believe he's really stoking the passions of Republican voters in 2024.

Feel like Kennedy could be a factor in Texas more than most states

Guilt factor I guess

I do think Gallego will win in Arizona, Lake is insane and I think the voters there want someone more moderate. I hope Tester wins in Montana, he's charismatic enough I think. I also hope Sherrod Brown is elected for a fourth term in Ohio. Bernie Moreno is a really bad person.

If the senate ends up being 50-50 and the house is in democratic control and Biden wins re-election, a lot could be accomplished

Guilt factor I guess

Until the filibuster is abandoned a 50-50 senate is still a stalemate on the majority of issues.

except for federal judicial confirmations, I think (correct me if I'm wrong), which is of great importance

also, I may be projecting, but there seems to be increasing interest in getting rid of the filibuster

Not if you poll most Democratic senators #norms

I saw an interview with Mark Kelly from AZ and he was all for getting rid of the filibuster, which surprised me. I agree it will most likely not happen in the next administration, though

Ditch the filibuster and centrists will find a new excuse.

Anyone thinking voting out Biden is going to make things better in Israel

Good news! The only person who thinks that is someone you made up in your head.

Instantly regretted the snark of that post but c'mon, it's been argued out endlessly on here and it should be clear by now that the ppl talking about witholding their vote for Biden due to Gaza are not in fact under the illusion that Trump would be better.

xp the problem with the filibuster from the democratic side is not the centrists, they will vote in lockstep - it's republicans who the NYT describes as centrists but who are really not at all. The entire republican party apparatus has devolved into something much more feral. And I guess the worry is what happens when they assume control

Almost anything is possible, from republicans scraping wins of the presidency, senate and house, to a complete republican wipeout that reaches far down to state and the local level. But this stuff does not fill me with confidence

My housing plan would provide a tax credit that would give Americans $400 a month to put toward their mortgage when they buy their first home or trade up for a little more space.

That’s breathing room.

— President Biden (@POTUS) May 11, 2024

caek otm

You stupid lefties complain about means testing well how about some reverse means testing? You like that?!

On the other hand, there’s this https://www.axios.com/2024/05/11/bidens-red-counties-trump and meanwhile the RNC has no money and no staff. Seems possible the national nature of the campaign could end up spreading Republican organizing so thin they could do even worse than they have done in special elections.

wheeeeeee
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

Jennifer Wright, a registered nurse in Sterling Heights, Mich. She supported Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020, and to her the election comes down to one question: “Who is the best candidate who is going to help me be in a financial situation to retire?”

“Even me, as a registered nurse, I’m buying Kroger brand or store brand. I’m not buying Jif. We’ve all had to cut back,” she said.

what's the nation coming to when registered nurses can't buy Jif

My kids are forced to eat Jpeg

likely voters looking better for biden, but no room for optimism in this containment thread

Kroger brand actually more peanut-y. tastes more real. doesn't have that glorious Jif smoooooooothness though.

poke fun all you want but the takeaway from that article is that the Biden administration gaslighting people by telling them that the economy is fine and they’re wrong to feel pinched is a bad move, and that actually listening to and doing something for people who are working multiple jobs and still having trouble piecing things together is a better way to

like sorry i don’t feel the economy is doing great as i get home from one job only to have to go to another one just so i can afford my mortgage and groceries

Since no one else has made this joke:

“Choosy moms choose chaos”

I do agree wholeheartedly that “what are y’all on about, the economy is totally awesome” is a message that shouldn’t be pushed

There is a way out of this, according to Mark Penn. Stop being such a peace loving lefty, Joe:

President Biden appears behind in all the swing states and his campaign appears all-too-focused on firming up his political base on the left with his new shift on Israel, a $7 trillion budget, massive tax increases and failing to connect on the basic issues of inflation, immigration and energy. By pitching too much to the base, he is leaving behind the centrist swing voters who shift between parties from election to election and, I believe, will be the key factor deciding the 2024 race.

Our reaction to the economy is mostly vibes. The worst financial crunch of my life happened between fall '09 and roughly fall '11 when like table I juggled several teaching jobs and still just about broke even. Obama wasn't "gaslighting" me about the state of the economy -- my personal economic news sucked! But it's not as if Obama were responsible for it nor did I not vote for him (NB: I did not vote for him in '08; I voted for no prez candidate).

Telling voters that "everything is okay and you are just overreacting and don't understand economics" isn't a winning strategy, and it absolutely is gaslighting.