Donald Trump: Classic or Dud?

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hahaha good luck with that

Apparently Hope Hicks testimony was pretty devastating to the defense. One summary I saw said she described a conversation in November 2016 with Donald where he said he wanted to deal with the Stormy Daniels or Karen McDougal story (not clear to me which one) quickly, because it would hurt his chances in the election. This is just absolutely perfect testimony for the prosecution because it is direct evidence that Trump's intent in the scheme was not just to avoid getting caught having an affair but to help his campaign. Supposedly Hicks realized the significance right after she said it and started crying on the stand. Why do I not get to see this?

One particularly smooth-brained journalistic take I've been seeing lately is that the defense is gonna try to claim that he was trying to shield Melania from the Stormy Daniels story by burying it. And that this is supposed to play well with the jury by painting him as a concerned family man. Is it just me, or does "I didn't want my wife to find out about me fucking a porn actress" not actually all that great, from a "family" angle? Especially when it happened just after Melania had given birth to Barron? I mean, how fucking stupid do you have to be to think that's something that could ever reflect positively on Trump? Stupid enough to get a job with the New York Times or Politico, I guess.

I absolutely think that is what the defense is going to do. They don't really have any other options. The crime is not the hush money payments, it is that the hush money payments were illegal campaign contributions because the payments were made to help Trump's campaign. So the prosecution has to prove that the intent of the payment was to help the campaign. If he made the payment for another reason, such as to keep his wife from finding out, there is no crime.

My understanding is the evidence is overwhelming that the payments were made and Trump knew about/directed them. So the main defense is attacking the proof of intent.

Trump could just get on the stand and testify that he made the payment because he didn't want Melania to find out. This might help him in the case to a limited degree, but would subject him to cross examination and would be disastrous for many other reasons.

how did she have time for this

One particularly smooth-brained journalistic take I've been seeing lately is that the defense is gonna try to claim that he was trying to shield Melania from the Stormy Daniels story by burying it. And that this is supposed to _play well with the jury_ by painting him as a concerned family man. Is it just me, or does "I didn't want my wife to find out about me fucking a porn actress" not actually all that great, from a "family" angle? Especially when it happened just after Melania had given birth to Barron? I mean, how fucking stupid do you have to be to think that's something that could ever reflect positively on Trump? Stupid enough to get a job with the New York Times or Politico, I guess.

I expect there will be a big fight over jury instructions on this point. For instance, a jury instruction might tell them if they have to find he did this primarily or solely to influence the election. It's obvious to me the evidence is overwhelming, but you never know what a jury might do with the instructions.

how fucking stupid do you have to be to think that's something that could ever reflect positively on Trump?

This is a criminal trial on multiple felony counts. If the defense can convince the jury that Trump's sole intent behind all those payments and shady maneuvers was to prevent Melania from knowing about his affair with a porn star, then the jury could return a not guilty verdict on all counts. They dgaf if it reflects positively on Donald. He'll seek to wriggle out any way he can.

Elon Musk won against the British caver who rescued the Thai football team. I wouldn’t be certain that Trump getting found guilty is a sure thing.

was that actually a jury trial?

I thought the Pecker testimony had devastated that "did it all for the sake of his marriage" defense strategy, not that it means it has - I've just seen people saying it has.

but yeah it's gonna come down to what exactly the jury is supposed to determine, it does feel like the prosecution has done their homework though in framing this to fit exactly what they're accusing him of, while the defense is just trying to challenge and "what if" everything which I don't think juries respond favorably to

obviously there could easily be a hung jury or some sort of mistrial but I'd be absolutely stunned at this point if they returned a not guilty verdict

I wonder if a normal defendant in this situation would let his lawyers argue this crime should only be charged as a misdemeanor. But Trump's maximalist approach won't allow his team to concede anything.

Even if he makes loads of dosh out of this, Todd Blanche will eventually, or probs already is rueing the day he left a good job to make Trump his only client. It must be such a high stress job dealing with this child every day in such a serious court case!

The farting alone...

I'm far from a legal expert but yeah I thought their best shot was not to argue the facts of the case (which are probably irrefutable, since Trump is not very good at covering his tracks) but rather just say, of course I wanted to hide it for the sake of my wife, I wasn't really thinking about the election, this is just how I do everything. idk if it's a solid case but if the accusation is that this was done as a campaign thing you might be able to score some points that way.

the defense for the trial I was on did pretty much the same thing Trump's lawyers are - challenging everything, trying to throw doubt on every aspect of the prosecution, making it sound like everything was some grand conspiracy against his client. and he actually did have a few solid arguments in there. but none of us really considered any of it because it was so clear that the defense was just throwing shit at the wall while the prosecution very much had their ducks in a row.

wait, can they call melania to the stand? maybe she knew about the stormy lady all along. then it was definitely all about the election.

i mean it obviously was about the election...

wives can legally ignore subpoenas to testify against their husbands

So this comes down to his intentions? I thought the crime was where the money came from and he was using it inappropriately?

Multi xp the ‘Pedo trial’ was in front of a jury. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50695593.amp

One difference I guess is Musk was a less toxic figure in the public imagination compared to now.

also (very unfortunately) the caver's lawyer was l. lin wood, who did win not-dissimilar cases a long age ago but latterly became very much a total crackpot unable to put a good case together: last year he retired from practice rather than face disbarment over his activities pursing trump's 2020 election fraud case -- my impression is that the caver was pretty badly advised but also deeply unlucky in his choice of representation and strategy

(and of course musk could pay for excellent lawyers, and unleashed them)

musk's "I was obviously joking" argument was pretty watertight iiuc. the jury returned the verdict in like 10 minutes. the trump trial is nothing like that.

why aren't you guys talking about the judge threatening trump with jail?

He should stop threatening it and actually do it.

because nobody believes the judge would actually make good on his threat

^^^

I mean, the judge is the one who will have to live with the death threats that come daily for probably the rest of his life if/when he decides that, so I'm not saying that he shouldn't do it, as he's the one that took the job, but I think he's trying to avoid it as long as he can until he can't realistically do it anymore or until (he hopes, incorrectly) Trump stops.

An aneurysm would stop him.

Wouldn't a couple nights in jail play into Trump's messiah shit? 'They're actually coming after you, but they have to get through me first!'
that's his whole schtick now

I feel like it'd help w/ his base (which, who cares), but he'd act like such a petulant baby, talking about the trials and tribulations of his 3 years in max (after a 2 day county stay), and quite ironically, it might be the first time anybody who votes R giving a fuck about conditions in jail

like he probably would never shut up about it

I just hope that he does jail Trump for contempt and that 2-3 days in the slammer is devastating to his physical and mental wellbeing.

he can still do so much trash-talking within the bounds of the gag order. It seems Merchan is probably shitting it and would probably only lock him up for an hour or something. Probably doesn't want the lasting notoriety of being first judge to lock up an ex-pres in a cell.

it would help him a lot in terms of fundraising but electorally I feel like getting thrown in jail because you couldn't shut the fuck up is probably a bad thing

there's also a chance if he was remanded to jail that he'd briefly resist, for a fleeting second, and then suddenly take an accidental blow to the chest that gave him an arrhythmia and oh no the parademic was just too late to get there see his hot dog cart order was just taking too long.

*paramedic

trump does not want to go to jail. it would be good if he went to jail.

for once he wasn't posting incessantly on Truth Social during the lunch break...I think he's spooked

I can't help but wonder how Trump being jailed would be bad for Biden. Perhaps the NYT can shed some light.

haha otm

his whole shtick is kayfabe 'nothing is real but money, i'm an obnoxious slob and it doesn't matter because i inherited $400,000,000.' when you come off the top of a steel cage that's two stories above the concrete arena floor you're not supposed to actually go to the hospital though, or get charged with injuring your opponent. maybe a little reality and consequences would finally make a difference in this whole abject charade?

just imagine the first food order Trump tries to place in jail and is told he can't get McDonald's there

"when i'm President again, the very first act is to make sure McDonald's IS AVAILABLE IN ALL PRISONS"

NYT with the scoop:

At the defense table, Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, two of Trump's lawyers, are passing a note back and forth. In between them? Trump, sitting with his eyes closed.

"He who smelt it" etc.

Would Jared and Ivana "forget" to put money on his commissary?

the note says "do you like me? y/n"

"More likely, Merchan could give Trump a "time out" in a cell behind the New York City courtroom where he is currently on trial."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-donald-trump-really-go-jail-gag-order-violations-rcna150848

THIS would be awesome because it would be humiliating but he wouldn't be able to raise a ton of money from a toddler time out.

“A minute in jail for every count against you in various venues”